Fair warning: you have till just before midnight tonight to make your thoughts known to the government about the phasing out of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and what exactly the so-called zero-emission transition period until 2035 will look like. The accompanying ZEV mandate, which may sound like the sort of poorly conceived plot device that would have Ethan Hunt frowning for the first hour of a Mission Impossible - but is in fact a poorly conceived plot of the government’s own making - has caused a similar amount of frowning about the pace and obvious pitfalls of so much change.
The consultation - which you can find here - asks 17 questions, some pertinent, others redundant, in the job of investigating and documenting varied opinion. As you might expect, they are partly a reflection of the pickle the Department for Transport finds itself in. For a start (and without wishing to dredge up what now seems like ancient history) the date chosen for banning the sale of new cars powered exclusively by petrol and diesel was plucked from the air like a small child guessing the age at which they will get married. It bore no relationship to the reality of the market nor the will of the consumer nor the pace of technology nor the implementation of the required infrastructure. It merely sounded good when Boris Johnson first mentioned it.
Little wonder then that it has become a political football to be tediously kicked back and forth. At any rate, leaving all that to one side, for now the 2030 deadline stands in the UK - although it is the stark reality of its imprudence that has triggered all the handwringing about what comes next. Plug-in hybrids exclusively? If so, which sort and with how much range? Or hybrids of all kinds? Where does hydrogen enter the mix? Or range-extenders? Or synthetic fuel for that matter? As you might imagine, the government’s failure to confirm precisely what it means by ‘hybrid’ has meant plenty of second-guessing among carmakers, and doubtless a fair amount of lobbying.
Certainly the consultation process will have taken in their views on the subject. Just last month, when PH spoke to Adrain Hallmark about the future of Aston Martin, he was poised for an additional round of talks with the powers that be. If PH had to guess, the definition of what manufacturers can sell after 2030 will likely end up taking a fairly liberal view of what it means to be a hybrid - one that accommodates the vast majority of newer solutions already being built at scale. A more stringent alternative would only serve to further limit the choice of cars available to the customer at ever greater cost, as well as hamper an industry not concerned exclusively with the UK’s mostly arbitrary choice of rules (especially as its combustion phase-out fails to align with the 2035 one set by the EU).
In all likelihood, the large-scale OEMs will have expended just as much energy attempting to have the existing ZEV mandate watered down. The government’s ill-judged attempt to force carmakers to sell an ever-increasing percentage of EVs - and face fines if they do not meet the annual target - has arguably proved a bigger thorn in the side for some than the 2030 cliff edge, mostly for its detachment from showroom-based reality. Even with the delays and loopholes already available to manufacturers, it would not be a shock to find the government bringing a carrot to bear on the situation, even as it wields a stick on pure combustion.
For low-volume carmakers - typically those that rely more heavily on combustion in its purest form - the immediate future is less stark than the long-term one. The government has already tentatively acknowledged that there is precedent for treating those making fewer than 2,500 cars a year differently, and it seems probable they will officially be excluded from the 2030 deadline. But unless something changes in the meantime, they will almost certainly be made to adhere to the outright ban on CO2 emissions looming in 2035. Probably nothing we say will prevent that future from coming to pass - but if you’re willing to send an email to zevmandate@dft.gov.uk before 11.59pm tonight, at least no one can say you didn’t try.
Phasing out sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and supporting the ZEV transition - click here for the response form
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