Inflation down, unemployment down, economy up?

[Marf]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13059332

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13045775

Are we turning a corner or is this just a momentary blip?

[toppstuff]

I don't think so. We have not turned a corner yet.

Consider that the impact of public sector redundancies have not hit the economy yet. Consider that the retails sector is having a tough time. When the public sector cuts hit spending the high street over the coming months, retail may well suffer even more.

It will get worse than it is now, before it gets better.

IMHO

[fatboy b]

I think there's at least another 10 months of media talk-down before any corner is turned.

[Tsippy]

I thought that the majority of public sector jobs would probably go from usual losses? (retirement, job changes etc)

[alangla]

Tsippy said:

I thought that the majority of public sector jobs would probably go from usual losses? (retirement, job changes etc)

Yes, but normally there would be a shuffle round, opening up a role for a kid leaving school/uni or someone coming off the dole - that won't happen this time.

[powerstroke]

alangla said:

Tsippy said:

I thought that the majority of public sector jobs would probably go from usual losses? (retirement, job changes etc)

Yes, but normally there would be a shuffle round, opening up a role for a kid leaving school/uni or someone coming off the dole - that won't happen this time.

So good news then less kids with clip boards screwing the productive part of the economy and a smaller public sector.... lower taxes and a beter standard of living for workers... cool

[Mojocvh]

Or perhaps less people being allowed to "qualify" for the unemployment statistics.............

[Marf]

Mojocvh said:

Or perhaps less people being allowed to "qualify" for the unemployment statistics.............

...................................................could you be more specific rather than just ending your sentence with lots of dots inferring there is more behind what you have said.........

[Fittster]

fatboy b said:

I think there's at least another 10 months of media talk-down before any corner is turned.

Any evidence you can provide that shows that media stories influence the direction of the economy?

[fido]

Marf said:

...................................................could you be more specific rather than just ending your sentence with lots of dots inferring there is more behind what you have said.........

I think he's trying to say that the unemployment figures mean diddly squat - and the actual number of people out-of-work (i.e. could work if they were either forced to by removing their benefits or could find a job) is actually much higher that the official figures. Tis certainly grim if you're anything less that a 5-stars graduate ........

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews...

.. or ..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance...

[Mojocvh]

Marf said:

Mojocvh said:

Or perhaps less people being allowed to "qualify" for the unemployment statistics

...................................................could you be more specific rather than just ending your sentence with lots of dots inferring there is more behind what you have said.........

..............Happy now.............

[HurryUpAndWait]

Momentary blip IMO, sadly.

Yes inflation is down, from 4.4% to 4.0%, so still double the target. I know it doesn't sound much, but the difference between 2% and 4% is the former means the value of your money is halved in 35 years, whereas the latter it is a little over 17 years.
Unemployment claimant count down 16,000 in an economy with 30 million workers - that's a rounding error.
Economy - well GDP likely to be positive in first quarter, but after a pretty bad Q4 2010, we're just getting back to where we were 6 months ago.

[Marf]

Mojocvh said:

Marf said:

Mojocvh said:

Or perhaps less people being allowed to "qualify" for the unemployment statistics

...................................................could you be more specific rather than just ending your sentence with lots of dots inferring there is more behind what you have said.........

..............Happy now.............

............................................................................NO!................................

[Jackleman]

toppstuff said:

I don't think so. We have not turned a corner yet.

Consider that the impact of public sector redundancies have not hit the economy yet. Consider that the retails sector is having a tough time. When the public sector cuts hit spending the high street over the coming months, retail may well suffer even more.

It will get worse than it is now, before it gets better.

IMHO

I am sure there will be an impact from public sector cuts, but the media are the left are talking it up far too much. A lot of the cuts will be done using natural churn rather and I gather the scale of the cut backs is to get government spending back to 2007 levels which was just when all this mess reared its ugly head.

I think things are slowly improving. One internet jobs board I keep an eye on has double the amount of live vacancies on it compared to 12 months ago.

[Digga]

Fittster said:

fatboy b said:

I think there's at least another 10 months of media talk-down before any corner is turned.

Any evidence you can provide that shows that media stories influence the direction of the economy?

Seriously?

Are you advocating the view propaganda has zero effect, ever?

[gtdc]

Fittster said:

Any evidence you can provide that shows that media stories influence the direction of the economy?

They influence just about everything else so why not the economy? If it diodn't work the BBC wouldn't bother. If all you did was listen to the BBC you'd think we were back in the Great Depression.

[Digga]

gtdc said:

Fittster said:

Any evidence you can provide that shows that media stories influence the direction of the economy?

They influence just about everything else so why not the economy? If it diodn't work the BBC wouldn't bother. If all you did was listen to the BBC you'd think we were back in the Great Depression.

Indeed, if publicity didn't work - on some - level, why would we need the PR and advertising sectors?

[Mojocvh]

Marf said:

Mojocvh said:

Marf said:

Mojocvh said:

Or perhaps less people being allowed to "qualify" for the unemployment statistics

...................................................could you be more specific rather than just ending your sentence with lots of dots inferring there is more behind what you have said.........

..............Happy now.............

............................................................................NO!................................

Sucks huh..

[maxrider]

fido said:

higher that the official figures.

less that a 5-stars graduate ........

'Than'

[alangla]

powerstroke said:

alangla said:

Tsippy said:

I thought that the majority of public sector jobs would probably go from usual losses? (retirement, job changes etc)

Yes, but normally there would be a shuffle round, opening up a role for a kid leaving school/uni or someone coming off the dole - that won't happen this time.

So good news then less kids with clip boards screwing the productive part of the economy and a smaller public sector.... lower taxes and a beter standard of living for workers... cool

I agree with the first bit, but the second ain't going to happen till the debt's under control (I didn't say deficit - IMHO we're going to need to be in surplus & starting to pay down the debt before a significant tax cut)