Monday polls show a slim Tory majority is a chance

[Puggit]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7673...

David Cameron has received a boost as a poll suggested he was on track to secure a slender majority in the general election.

The Tories are performing strongly enough in marginal constituencies to creep over the victory line, research by Ipsos Mori for Reuters indicated.

It is the first time in weeks that a survey has put Mr Cameron on course for an overall majority - albeit of just two seats.

[T89 Callan]

I fking hope so.

[summit7]

My tea leaves tell me they will have a twenty seat majority.

It will be enough.

They will cut public spending and get a second election win.

After that they might go back to their old ways of factional fighting and troughing so hard to call.

[Jasandjules]

If it's a majority of 1 that is enough. We can but hope....

Then hope beyond hope that some more Conservative and sensible policies come into play regarding the AGW bulls**t.

[MOTORVATOR]

If they get their majority surely the first thing they should do is sort the poxy boundaries so we don't get this problem with Labour getting a huge volume of seats with so few votes.

For some reason though they've always argued against doing it. Anybody know why?

[Political Pain]

A small majority of about 12 would be ideal.

[anonymous-user]

it's a testament to the total ineffectiveness of the current tory shower that more than a few union marxists and hardcore spongers are planning on voting labour. turns out spunking 1000bn gbp does buy votes after all. if the torys have any sense they will introduce compulsory finance gcse immediately. that should keep labour out for at least a generation.

[eharding]

Political Pain said:

A small majority of about 12 would be ideal.

Just enough to put through a motion making hunting with dogs legal again.

As a sop to the bleeding-heart-wishy-washy-pinko-liberal brigade, hunting *foxes* with dogs will still be illegal.

It will, however, be legal to hunt any current (as of 1st May 2010) Labour MP or Peer with hounds; as an alternative, any candidate MP or Peer can opt for the drag-hunting option - they are dragged behind a LandRover for 15 miles, and only then are the hounds set loose to follow the scent.

The only problem I can see is that any self-respecting hunting dog would probably throw up at the first taste of a Labour politician.

[Puggit]

Thursday Night/Friday morning is going to make for fantastic viewing. I'm certain there are going to be a few shocks through the night.

I hope I can stay awake - I'm having my leaving drinks for my current job on Weds...

[Political Pain]

Puggit said:

Thursday Night/Friday morning is going to make for fantastic viewing. I'm certain there are going to be a few shocks through the night.

I hope I can stay awake - I'm having my leaving drinks for my current job on Weds...

I do hope Brown has arranged the same thing... but with his problem in not being able to organise a pees-up in a brewery, he'll probably screw that up too!

[5unny]

A majority is good but its a tad worrying that Labour currently have an idiot for PM, not only does the country think so but so does half of his party, we are in dire economic times yet the Tories will only get a small majority at best.

Looking to the future what is needed for the Tories to have a 50/100+ majority like Blair attained?

[eharding]

5unny said:

Looking to the future what is needed for the Tories to have a 50/100+ majority like Blair attained?

A Lib/Lab pact next week, with Winky somehow staying at the reigns.

Assuming that the inevitable breakdown of civil order, riots, famine and plague over the following 6 months ever allow there to be another orderly election.

[Political Pain]

5unny said:

A majority is good but its a tad worrying that Labour currently have an idiot for PM, not only does the country think so but so does half of his party, we are in dire economic times yet the Tories will only get a small majority at best.

Looking to the future what is needed for the Tories to have a 50/100+ majority like Blair attained?

Definitely not!

Big majorities are bad news for us all.

Politicians are vain, vain in ways that we as normal people have difficulty in imagining, Look at Blair, the adulation went to his head and he went off his rocker, Maggie lost her vision at times [poll tax, destroying industry rather than investing in it, decrying community when it was the one thing that kept the UK together in hard times]

Small working majority, no more, no less.

Instilling humility into a politician is like hammering nails into steel with your eyeball, you just end up with blind hope.

[Leithen]

Worth looking at Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight analysis. He's the US baseball statitician who turned his hand at predicting the US presidential election with surprising accuracy, along the way making the established pollsters look a bit silly.

He's been predicting a greater likelihood of a small Conservative majority using a model that does not use the uniform swing that other analysts fall back on. It will be interesting to see how close his final call is to the truth.

Edited by Leithen on Monday 3rd May 22:44