How low will GBP go?

[turbobloke]

Just found this prediction online for £ vs $
Oct 2008 1.785
Nov 2008 1.762
Dec 2008 1.767
Jan 2009 1.751
Feb 2009 1.738
Mar 2009 1.715
Apr 2009 1.671

It seems optimistic that the GB Pound will remain as 'strong' as that given where we are now, at Oct/Nov. So, with several interest rate cuts ahead and the US already about as low as they'll go (and ahead of us in the economic cycle according to several commentators therefore looking for an earlier upturn) how low will it go? 1.50? Lower?

[Plotloss]

It was $1.55 at the close of play on the wednesday before last.

[Fittster]

How low will the GBP go against what?

It's a race to the bottom!

[turbobloke]

Plotloss said:

It was $1.55 at the close of play on the wednesday before last.

Indeed, and over $2 not too long ago. I wondered whether $1.50 was a major resistance point or if it would be breached easily as our rate cuts progress and the recession deepens. And if so, where to?!

Edited by turbobloke on Saturday 1st November 13:24

[turbobloke]

Fittster said:

How low will the GBP go against what?

USD as per the OP

Fittster said:

It's a race to the bottom!

So as per my question, where's the bottom?!

[Fittster]

turbobloke said:

Fittster said:

How low will the GBP go against what?

USD as per the OP

Fittster said:

It's a race to the bottom!

So as per my question, where's the bottom?!

0. Haven't all fiat currencies become worthless eventually?

[collateral]

Plotloss said:

It was $1.55 at the close of play on the wednesday before last.

Yeah, my dad just got a similar rate to that moving some money from Septic land back here.

Reckoned he hasn't seen 1.55 since the 90s

[andy-xr]

I think we'll see 1.4 before 1.8

No science, just a hunch. Depends on Obama and Iceland really

[Plotloss]

collateral said:

Plotloss said:

It was $1.55 at the close of play on the wednesday before last.

Yeah, my dad just got a similar rate to that moving some money from Septic land back here.

Reckoned he hasn't seen 1.55 since the 90s

It was $1.35 ish in 2001.

[collateral]

Plotloss said:

collateral said:

Plotloss said:

It was $1.55 at the close of play on the wednesday before last.

Yeah, my dad just got a similar rate to that moving some money from Septic land back here.

Reckoned he hasn't seen 1.55 since the 90s

It was $1.35 ish in 2001.

Fair play...guess we had more things on our mind than the exchange rate during the last few months of that particular year

[Plotloss]

I only remember as I moved back to the UK and left some money in the US, its got steadily more worthless every bloody year.

[collateral]

Plotloss said:

I only remember as I moved back to the UK and left some money in the US, its got steadily more worthless every bloody year.

Ah, my family moved out there in 2000 and back in 2006...just luck to have sold up before the US housing slump really.

Depressing to transfer a grand in Dollars and get 500 quid back!

Now the Pound's died I might actually have to watch my spending when I'm out there now, blah

[NoelWatson]

turbobloke said:

Just found this prediction online for £ vs $
Oct 2008 1.785
Nov 2008 1.762
Dec 2008 1.767
Jan 2009 1.751
Feb 2009 1.738
Mar 2009 1.715
Apr 2009 1.671

It seems optimistic that the GB Pound will remain as 'strong' as that given where we are now, at Oct/Nov. So, with several interest rate cuts ahead and the US already about as low as they'll go (and ahead of us in the economic cycle according to several commentators therefore looking for an earlier upturn) how low will it go? 1.50? Lower?

Put some screenshots here

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,4201...

[Simpo Two]

Bah, and to think that there were once $4 to £1...

[turbobloke]

NoelWatson said:

Put some screenshots here

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,4201...

That's very interesting, thanks.

[Alex97]

Simpo Two said:

Bah, and to think that there were once $4 to £1...

How long ago was that?

[Digga]

We have a $ denominated letter of credit which is payable at the end of this month...

Would be nice if the q4 2008 predictions on Noel's site came into play by then.

[dilbert]

It'll reach parity with the euro, and then be subsumed.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

We have a $ denominated letter of credit which is payable at the end of this month...

Would be nice if the q4 2008 predictions on Noel's site came into play by then.

FX has major economic impacts but when it's close to home it's still good to be on the right side of the trends.

[turbobloke]

So, where is GBP now - had the markets already priced in what they got in terms of the base rate -1.5% - and longer term, the prospect of what's yet to come in terms of the USA (ercovery before us) and the depth of the UK recession?