These so called "economic experts"

[srebbe64]

A few weeks ago on BBC Radio 5 (I think it was) I heard an economics "expert" say that by the Autumn he expects oil to be up to $200 a barrel. Well today it's $90 a barrel. (Incidentally, I reckon that this "expert", had he have been correct, would be telling everyone "I told you so!") And there are many other examples I could cite of "experts" spouting complete tosh.

As such, I have to ask the question why the media waste their (and our) time asking so called experts for their economic predictions! My point is, if these "experts" were anywhere as bright as they'd want us to think, they wouldn't be spouting their predictions on the media they'd be keeping quiet and making a fortune on the markets. So there is a natural contradiction, like a self-regulating valve, that the experts who loudly spout predictions are, by there very nature, likely to be very poor predictors (if you know what I mean)!

[10 Pence Short]

Probably the same experts who thought it was a good idea to give mortgages to the cast of Deliverence, and those who then bought that debt.

[srebbe64]

10 Pence Short said:

Probably the same experts who thought it was a good idea to give mortgages to the cast of Deliverence, and those who then bought that debt.

Yes. Rather like the bankers who giving their opinion as to waht the answer is - and yet it's these same people that created the problem in the first place. As someone said recently, "the prisoners want to run the prison". They've proved they can't do it which should disqualify them for the job!

[Jasandjules]

Well, if you look at the experts (i.e. the banks who trade on the markets) they have differing views (look at the equity research data too), the bottom line is it's an expert "opinion" and without people getting it wrong, others wouldn't make money...

[maximm]

if they were experts they would be trading and making loads of money....not wasting our and their time by commenting on BBC Working Lunch....

[Jasandjules]

Uh, some of them give their advice live from the dealing floor.

[BOR]

srebbe64 said:

My point is, if these "experts" were anywhere as bright as they'd want us to think, they wouldn't be spouting their predictions on the media they'd be keeping quiet and making a fortune on the markets.

Your missing the key point. They still make their commission regardless of whether you buy or sell, what they don't want is for you to "hold". So it makes complete sense for these middle men to talk the markets up or down, because they profit from it. As the last few days have shown, they have no idea what they are doing.

[Munter]

BOR said:

As the last few days have shown, they have no idea what they are doing.

I think the word your looking for is Years.

[Jasandjules]

BOR said:

Your missing the key point. They still make their commission regardless of whether you buy or sell, what they don't want is for you to "hold".

Uh, you're missing the point a bit. You see, for one person to make money on a share price, another person will lose it. A Market Maker will make money on a buy or sale but then he's there to keep the market rolling, and may go long on shares which suck big time, leaving him with substantial exposure and money tied up - however others will not make money but lose it hand over fist if they trade at the wrong time, for example options, bonds traders etc..who may need to sell/buy no matter what the price to deliver the stock they've promised but gone short/long on it taking a punt.

[maximm]

Jasandjules said:

Uh, some of them give their advice live from the dealing floor.

most of the people who give advice are the economists who come down from their broom cupboard to give "advice" from the floor to act like they are in touch with the markets. Well that is what happens at my gaff anyway. We pay zero attention to what our economists say.