A Darling honest or not?
Discussion
Well following his supposedly frank disclosure of how bad the UK is 70 years... 1948 hyper fuel costs, food costs, rationing, living on a shoestring and also a Lbr Govt with massively ramped up borrowings.
If this is the case then labour have royally f&*^ked up things for us for a generation. We are the most debt ridden (personal debt) in the Western world facing the credit crunch yet Brown seemed to think were "do'in alright".
So question is this - either A Darling is telling porkie pies or the cabinet is?
Added to this tomorrow GBrown is announcing his Housing saving scheme - basically whereby the Govt buys x% of equity with a person wanting to get onto the property ladder. Please tell me why a govt already with vast borrowings wants to take us further into debt at a time when property prices could crash so buying at the wrong time OR trying to turn the market in which case continuing the overvaluation of properties.
Its frankly shocking that the Govt are getting away with this - why are not all the oppoision parties demanding an election? Why are the labour MP's still standing loyal knowing they are possibly the worst govt we have ever had?
Well at least there is one good outcome from this Labour can no longer bang on & on about the HPC of the 1990's.
When the Tory's do get in it will take possibly best part of a decade to sort out this mess & during that time the public will have to face difficult decisions by the Govt which no doubt will swing labour back in then they will reap the benefit of what they have been doing. Then their house of cards falls down.
I really hope this is a bad dream as I certainly dont want to see millions out of work, crime rocketing due to unemployment, repossessions.
If this is the case then labour have royally f&*^ked up things for us for a generation. We are the most debt ridden (personal debt) in the Western world facing the credit crunch yet Brown seemed to think were "do'in alright".
So question is this - either A Darling is telling porkie pies or the cabinet is?
Added to this tomorrow GBrown is announcing his Housing saving scheme - basically whereby the Govt buys x% of equity with a person wanting to get onto the property ladder. Please tell me why a govt already with vast borrowings wants to take us further into debt at a time when property prices could crash so buying at the wrong time OR trying to turn the market in which case continuing the overvaluation of properties.
Its frankly shocking that the Govt are getting away with this - why are not all the oppoision parties demanding an election? Why are the labour MP's still standing loyal knowing they are possibly the worst govt we have ever had?
Well at least there is one good outcome from this Labour can no longer bang on & on about the HPC of the 1990's.
When the Tory's do get in it will take possibly best part of a decade to sort out this mess & during that time the public will have to face difficult decisions by the Govt which no doubt will swing labour back in then they will reap the benefit of what they have been doing. Then their house of cards falls down.
I really hope this is a bad dream as I certainly dont want to see millions out of work, crime rocketing due to unemployment, repossessions.
As far as I can see there are two potential motivations behind his admissions.
One - he's applying the New Labour trick of 'make people think everything will be awful on the eve of something negative, then when it turns out to be milder, take credit'.
Two - He know his career is screwed and is venting his spleen before his inevitable downfall.
We'll know which one when the next cabinet reshuffle arrives. If he's sacked, or made Minister for Paperclips, it's the latter.
One - he's applying the New Labour trick of 'make people think everything will be awful on the eve of something negative, then when it turns out to be milder, take credit'.
Two - He know his career is screwed and is venting his spleen before his inevitable downfall.
We'll know which one when the next cabinet reshuffle arrives. If he's sacked, or made Minister for Paperclips, it's the latter.
Twincam16 said:
As far as I can see there are two potential motivations behind his admissions.
One - he's applying the New Labour trick of 'make people think everything will be awful on the eve of something negative, then when it turns out to be milder, take credit'.
Two - He know his career is screwed and is venting his spleen before his inevitable downfall.
We'll know which one when the next cabinet reshuffle arrives. If he's sacked, or made Minister for Paperclips, it's the latter.
I'd go with the former. One - he's applying the New Labour trick of 'make people think everything will be awful on the eve of something negative, then when it turns out to be milder, take credit'.
Two - He know his career is screwed and is venting his spleen before his inevitable downfall.
We'll know which one when the next cabinet reshuffle arrives. If he's sacked, or made Minister for Paperclips, it's the latter.
And you've only just discovered this.....
Been saying this for years, but as long as the plasma TV were plentiful no-one wanted to hear.
Labour's have shafted this country for 20+ years, it has been a systematic shafting that started sometime in 2000. It was all about feathering the nests of their own voters, the unions, the public sector workshy, the feckless unemployed and welfare-istas.
The reasons are very simple.
1. Little in the way of foreign or gold reserves and so nothing to hold the currency in place. This leaves the economy vulnerable to imported inflation. Solution, buy them - costs money that can't be used elsewhere.
2. No current account reserves, so the economy is vulnerable to fluctuations in tax/spending variation especially now as unemployment starts to rise. Solution, spend less than you tax, problem, cutting public services is sacking doctors and nurses
3. Personal finances are screwed, very high debt gearings meaning little to go on discretionary spend. Problem: Retail depressed, feel-good factor gone. Solution, lower taxes (see 2)
4. Long term finances in trouble, pensions fund are substantially in deficit making pensioners more dependant on the state.
5. UK productivity is stagnant, instead, more red tape, more expense to hire staff, more compliance has stifled private sector growth. Problem, pay rises are harder to pay through productivity - hence disposable incomes cannot rise.
The fastest and quickest solutions is to make big, big cuts in the public sector. Not the front-line but the organs of officialdom, get rid of every single non-job, a bonfire of regulation and sack the 300,000 people it employs. They can do something more productive like stack shelves. Read the riot act to local councils and cap them to 2% increases for five years.
Pass half of savings onto the public as tax cuts; the other half to restoring reserves and paying debt. Bring back married couple tax allowance, abolish tax credits, re-instate the 10p tax rate starting a little higher instead.
Been saying this for years, but as long as the plasma TV were plentiful no-one wanted to hear.
Labour's have shafted this country for 20+ years, it has been a systematic shafting that started sometime in 2000. It was all about feathering the nests of their own voters, the unions, the public sector workshy, the feckless unemployed and welfare-istas.
The reasons are very simple.
1. Little in the way of foreign or gold reserves and so nothing to hold the currency in place. This leaves the economy vulnerable to imported inflation. Solution, buy them - costs money that can't be used elsewhere.
2. No current account reserves, so the economy is vulnerable to fluctuations in tax/spending variation especially now as unemployment starts to rise. Solution, spend less than you tax, problem, cutting public services is sacking doctors and nurses
3. Personal finances are screwed, very high debt gearings meaning little to go on discretionary spend. Problem: Retail depressed, feel-good factor gone. Solution, lower taxes (see 2)
4. Long term finances in trouble, pensions fund are substantially in deficit making pensioners more dependant on the state.
5. UK productivity is stagnant, instead, more red tape, more expense to hire staff, more compliance has stifled private sector growth. Problem, pay rises are harder to pay through productivity - hence disposable incomes cannot rise.
The fastest and quickest solutions is to make big, big cuts in the public sector. Not the front-line but the organs of officialdom, get rid of every single non-job, a bonfire of regulation and sack the 300,000 people it employs. They can do something more productive like stack shelves. Read the riot act to local councils and cap them to 2% increases for five years.
Pass half of savings onto the public as tax cuts; the other half to restoring reserves and paying debt. Bring back married couple tax allowance, abolish tax credits, re-instate the 10p tax rate starting a little higher instead.
What on earth is Alistair Darling on about? He tells the Guardian that:
The economic times faced by Britain and the rest of the world "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years".
I just don’t get this - and not just because, as John points out, we’re four times richer than we were 60 years ago. Let’s run through some possibilities.
1. GDP. This fell 1.3 per cent in the worst four quarters of the 1991 recession. The Bank of England reckons the chances of a repeat in the next four quarters are a roughly two standard deviation event - less than a one-in-20 chance.
2. Unemployment. The consensus among independent forecasters (pdf) is that the claimant count will rise by around a quarter million - to 1.1 million - by Q4 2009. In the 1981 and 1991 recessions, it rose three times as fast. It rose twice as fast in 1975.
3. Household incomes. Yes, these have been squeezed recently. But independent forecasters expect the squeeze to abate next year, and for real disposable incomes to rise 1.1%. In the worst point of the 1981 downturn, they fell 2%, and in 1977 - when incomes policy bit - they fell 4%.
4. House prices. OK, so these’ll fall. But this means diddly squat. House prices are not net wealth. Many people gain from falling prices.
5.Financial conditions. The stock market has risen in the last few weeks. The All-share’s dividend yield is 4% - slap in the middle of the range (3-5%) generally considered to be a long-run normal rate. People who are staking money on the UK economy, then, don’t think we face a crisis. Contrast this with 1974, when some people genuinely thought capitalism would collapse.
Yes, sterling has been weak. But this is as much a help to the economy as a problem.
So, what’s going on here? One possibility is that Mr Darling is much more pessimistic than reputable forecasters - which is an odd turnaround, given that he was more optimistic than them just four months ago. Or maybe he knows nothing about economic history.
There’s a third. The monetary policy committee meets next week. Darling is, in effect, pleading for them to cut rates. But why should they believe such hysteria?
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/
The economic times faced by Britain and the rest of the world "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years".
I just don’t get this - and not just because, as John points out, we’re four times richer than we were 60 years ago. Let’s run through some possibilities.
1. GDP. This fell 1.3 per cent in the worst four quarters of the 1991 recession. The Bank of England reckons the chances of a repeat in the next four quarters are a roughly two standard deviation event - less than a one-in-20 chance.
2. Unemployment. The consensus among independent forecasters (pdf) is that the claimant count will rise by around a quarter million - to 1.1 million - by Q4 2009. In the 1981 and 1991 recessions, it rose three times as fast. It rose twice as fast in 1975.
3. Household incomes. Yes, these have been squeezed recently. But independent forecasters expect the squeeze to abate next year, and for real disposable incomes to rise 1.1%. In the worst point of the 1981 downturn, they fell 2%, and in 1977 - when incomes policy bit - they fell 4%.
4. House prices. OK, so these’ll fall. But this means diddly squat. House prices are not net wealth. Many people gain from falling prices.
5.Financial conditions. The stock market has risen in the last few weeks. The All-share’s dividend yield is 4% - slap in the middle of the range (3-5%) generally considered to be a long-run normal rate. People who are staking money on the UK economy, then, don’t think we face a crisis. Contrast this with 1974, when some people genuinely thought capitalism would collapse.
Yes, sterling has been weak. But this is as much a help to the economy as a problem.
So, what’s going on here? One possibility is that Mr Darling is much more pessimistic than reputable forecasters - which is an odd turnaround, given that he was more optimistic than them just four months ago. Or maybe he knows nothing about economic history.
There’s a third. The monetary policy committee meets next week. Darling is, in effect, pleading for them to cut rates. But why should they believe such hysteria?
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/
Fittster said:
What on earth is Alistair Darling on about? He tells the Guardian that:
The economic times faced by Britain and the rest of the world "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years".
I just don’t get this - and not just because, as John points out, we’re four times richer than we were 60 years ago. Let’s run through some possibilities.
1. GDP. This fell 1.3 per cent in the worst four quarters of the 1991 recession. The Bank of England reckons the chances of a repeat in the next four quarters are a roughly two standard deviation event - less than a one-in-20 chance.
2. Unemployment. The consensus among independent forecasters (pdf) is that the claimant count will rise by around a quarter million - to 1.1 million - by Q4 2009. In the 1981 and 1991 recessions, it rose three times as fast. It rose twice as fast in 1975.
3. Household incomes. Yes, these have been squeezed recently. But independent forecasters expect the squeeze to abate next year, and for real disposable incomes to rise 1.1%. In the worst point of the 1981 downturn, they fell 2%, and in 1977 - when incomes policy bit - they fell 4%.
4. House prices. OK, so these’ll fall. But this means diddly squat. House prices are not net wealth. Many people gain from falling prices.
5.Financial conditions. The stock market has risen in the last few weeks. The All-share’s dividend yield is 4% - slap in the middle of the range (3-5%) generally considered to be a long-run normal rate. People who are staking money on the UK economy, then, don’t think we face a crisis. Contrast this with 1974, when some people genuinely thought capitalism would collapse.
Yes, sterling has been weak. But this is as much a help to the economy as a problem.
So, what’s going on here? One possibility is that Mr Darling is much more pessimistic than reputable forecasters - which is an odd turnaround, given that he was more optimistic than them just four months ago. Or maybe he knows nothing about economic history.
There’s a third. The monetary policy committee meets next week. Darling is, in effect, pleading for them to cut rates. But why should they believe such hysteria?
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.The economic times faced by Britain and the rest of the world "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years".
I just don’t get this - and not just because, as John points out, we’re four times richer than we were 60 years ago. Let’s run through some possibilities.
1. GDP. This fell 1.3 per cent in the worst four quarters of the 1991 recession. The Bank of England reckons the chances of a repeat in the next four quarters are a roughly two standard deviation event - less than a one-in-20 chance.
2. Unemployment. The consensus among independent forecasters (pdf) is that the claimant count will rise by around a quarter million - to 1.1 million - by Q4 2009. In the 1981 and 1991 recessions, it rose three times as fast. It rose twice as fast in 1975.
3. Household incomes. Yes, these have been squeezed recently. But independent forecasters expect the squeeze to abate next year, and for real disposable incomes to rise 1.1%. In the worst point of the 1981 downturn, they fell 2%, and in 1977 - when incomes policy bit - they fell 4%.
4. House prices. OK, so these’ll fall. But this means diddly squat. House prices are not net wealth. Many people gain from falling prices.
5.Financial conditions. The stock market has risen in the last few weeks. The All-share’s dividend yield is 4% - slap in the middle of the range (3-5%) generally considered to be a long-run normal rate. People who are staking money on the UK economy, then, don’t think we face a crisis. Contrast this with 1974, when some people genuinely thought capitalism would collapse.
Yes, sterling has been weak. But this is as much a help to the economy as a problem.
So, what’s going on here? One possibility is that Mr Darling is much more pessimistic than reputable forecasters - which is an odd turnaround, given that he was more optimistic than them just four months ago. Or maybe he knows nothing about economic history.
There’s a third. The monetary policy committee meets next week. Darling is, in effect, pleading for them to cut rates. But why should they believe such hysteria?
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
Seems to me that by being 'honest' about things, he's hoping that the general public will be convinced that (a) the cause is external and (b) Labour are doing all they can about it and (c) their previous economic policies are not contributing to the problems. Going "la la la I can't hear you" isn't going to work right now, so he's going the opposite way in the hope of spinning the underlying issues to favour himself and/or Labour.
Timmy35 said:
Racingdude009 said:
[
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
They are MUCH worse, you cannot imagine how much worse. Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
Tuna said:
Seems to me that by being 'honest' about things, he's hoping that the general public will be convinced that (a) the cause is external and (b) Labour are doing all they can about it and (c) their previous economic policies are not contributing to the problems. Going "la la la I can't hear you" isn't going to work right now, so he's going the opposite way in the hope of spinning the underlying issues to favour himself and/or Labour.
He hasn't really done himself any favours though has he? He hasn't suggested any potential solutions to the problems and he's even said 'I am not a great politician', which given the scale of the problem, is a clear admission that he isn't the right man for the job.Fittster said:
Timmy35 said:
Racingdude009 said:
[
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
They are MUCH worse, you cannot imagine how much worse. Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
Utter madness.
Fittster said:
Timmy35 said:
Racingdude009 said:
[
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
They are MUCH worse, you cannot imagine how much worse. Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
On the other hand, I'm not sure houses are worth half their current price, and it's also worth noting that we don't have any gold any more and our manufacturing sector is so minimal that we're dependent on imports, so the possibility of a Thatcher-style economic rejuvenation through streamlined, profitable export businesses looks less plausible than it did even in 1979.
Not as bad as the '70s, but potentially worse than the early '90s. However, if we get Britpop back, I'm all for it
List of Labour failures:-
1.Sell all our Gold reserves at Golds historical low price
2. EU rebate £6 billion IIRC that Thatcher negotiated hard for back in the 80's Given away on a potential promise - result potential promise not met.
3. Tax pension funds... this has certainly added to their defecits
4. Move the goal posts with the Golden rule and suddenly you have an extra £11 billion.
5. Not started the replacement of the Nuclear plants 10 years ago - were a decade behind now & will face high energy costs until we have them built.
6. G Brown as leader with no general election especially given the public concensus.
7. Strict rules for the BoE to only maintain inlfation CPI and not RPI suddenly rampant house price inflation is ignored and the deflation of lots of goods from China is masking the real nightmare which could come out.
8. Stamp duty! Not needed.
9. VED changes this year - even if they back track the £billions lost in cars asset value has been lost and cannot be regained.
10. Red tape for companies
11. Minimum wage - they had something like a 15% pay rise this year... that all adds to inflation and frankly those slightly above min wage why should they bother working harder more responsibility for a pittance more salary?
12. Iraq war - waste of our £
13. Afgan War - waste of our money
14. Why does the UK always have to be first in? Why not let 6 of the other G8 do it instead?
15. OP made some very good points, however I disagree that it will be better than 90's I think it could be leagues worse. One thing as Russia controls the main energy this side of the pond they could cripple us and cut us off if they so wished ad give China the capacity instead.
I dont think many people realise just how bad things could get.
Last point what caused the 20's & 30's depression to be so bad? In a nutshell? Thanks
1.Sell all our Gold reserves at Golds historical low price
2. EU rebate £6 billion IIRC that Thatcher negotiated hard for back in the 80's Given away on a potential promise - result potential promise not met.
3. Tax pension funds... this has certainly added to their defecits
4. Move the goal posts with the Golden rule and suddenly you have an extra £11 billion.
5. Not started the replacement of the Nuclear plants 10 years ago - were a decade behind now & will face high energy costs until we have them built.
6. G Brown as leader with no general election especially given the public concensus.
7. Strict rules for the BoE to only maintain inlfation CPI and not RPI suddenly rampant house price inflation is ignored and the deflation of lots of goods from China is masking the real nightmare which could come out.
8. Stamp duty! Not needed.
9. VED changes this year - even if they back track the £billions lost in cars asset value has been lost and cannot be regained.
10. Red tape for companies
11. Minimum wage - they had something like a 15% pay rise this year... that all adds to inflation and frankly those slightly above min wage why should they bother working harder more responsibility for a pittance more salary?
12. Iraq war - waste of our £
13. Afgan War - waste of our money
14. Why does the UK always have to be first in? Why not let 6 of the other G8 do it instead?
15. OP made some very good points, however I disagree that it will be better than 90's I think it could be leagues worse. One thing as Russia controls the main energy this side of the pond they could cripple us and cut us off if they so wished ad give China the capacity instead.
I dont think many people realise just how bad things could get.
Last point what caused the 20's & 30's depression to be so bad? In a nutshell? Thanks
Timmy35 said:
Racingdude009 said:
[
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
They are MUCH worse, you cannot imagine how much worse. Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
Welshbeef said:
List of Labour failures:-
1.Sell all our Gold reserves at Golds historical low price
2. EU rebate £6 billion IIRC that Thatcher negotiated hard for back in the 80's Given away on a potential promise - result potential promise not met.
3. Tax pension funds... this has certainly added to their defecits
4. Move the goal posts with the Golden rule and suddenly you have an extra £11 billion.
5. Not started the replacement of the Nuclear plants 10 years ago - were a decade behind now & will face high energy costs until we have them built.
6. G Brown as leader with no general election especially given the public concensus.
7. Strict rules for the BoE to only maintain inlfation CPI and not RPI suddenly rampant house price inflation is ignored and the deflation of lots of goods from China is masking the real nightmare which could come out.
8. Stamp duty! Not needed.
9. VED changes this year - even if they back track the £billions lost in cars asset value has been lost and cannot be regained.
10. Red tape for companies
11. Minimum wage - they had something like a 15% pay rise this year... that all adds to inflation and frankly those slightly above min wage why should they bother working harder more responsibility for a pittance more salary?
12. Iraq war - waste of our £
13. Afgan War - waste of our money
14. Why does the UK always have to be first in? Why not let 6 of the other G8 do it instead?
15. OP made some very good points, however I disagree that it will be better than 90's I think it could be leagues worse. One thing as Russia controls the main energy this side of the pond they could cripple us and cut us off if they so wished ad give China the capacity instead.
I dont think many people realise just how bad things could get.
Last point what caused the 20's & 30's depression to be so bad? In a nutshell? Thanks
The Great Depression was caused by a massive contraction of the money supply leading to a big fall in asset prices.1.Sell all our Gold reserves at Golds historical low price
2. EU rebate £6 billion IIRC that Thatcher negotiated hard for back in the 80's Given away on a potential promise - result potential promise not met.
3. Tax pension funds... this has certainly added to their defecits
4. Move the goal posts with the Golden rule and suddenly you have an extra £11 billion.
5. Not started the replacement of the Nuclear plants 10 years ago - were a decade behind now & will face high energy costs until we have them built.
6. G Brown as leader with no general election especially given the public concensus.
7. Strict rules for the BoE to only maintain inlfation CPI and not RPI suddenly rampant house price inflation is ignored and the deflation of lots of goods from China is masking the real nightmare which could come out.
8. Stamp duty! Not needed.
9. VED changes this year - even if they back track the £billions lost in cars asset value has been lost and cannot be regained.
10. Red tape for companies
11. Minimum wage - they had something like a 15% pay rise this year... that all adds to inflation and frankly those slightly above min wage why should they bother working harder more responsibility for a pittance more salary?
12. Iraq war - waste of our £
13. Afgan War - waste of our money
14. Why does the UK always have to be first in? Why not let 6 of the other G8 do it instead?
15. OP made some very good points, however I disagree that it will be better than 90's I think it could be leagues worse. One thing as Russia controls the main energy this side of the pond they could cripple us and cut us off if they so wished ad give China the capacity instead.
I dont think many people realise just how bad things could get.
Last point what caused the 20's & 30's depression to be so bad? In a nutshell? Thanks
Banks were slow to react in cutting interest rates and government did not spend additional money to prop up the economy.
The result was mass bankruptcy & mass unemployment.
Now in the 21st century and our situation.....
in the last 100 years which decades have economically been good from the UK's point of view?
So far 70% of the 2000's have been viewed as the good times
90's very bad I remember houses on the market for years
80's seemed pretty good
70's dire
60's?
50's?
40's - guessing dire as 5 years war then rationing for a decade or so after that
30's - War and pre that the 30's depression
20's - depression
10's WW1
00's - ?
1850-90's Boar Wars/industrial revolution - would assume a generally good time.
So far 70% of the 2000's have been viewed as the good times
90's very bad I remember houses on the market for years
80's seemed pretty good
70's dire
60's?
50's?
40's - guessing dire as 5 years war then rationing for a decade or so after that
30's - War and pre that the 30's depression
20's - depression
10's WW1
00's - ?
1850-90's Boar Wars/industrial revolution - would assume a generally good time.
theboyfold said:
Timmy35 said:
Racingdude009 said:
[
Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
They are MUCH worse, you cannot imagine how much worse. Well said things are not great but nothing as bad as they were in the early 1990's.
In fact Darling negative talk is more likely to take us into recession than avoid it.
The 1991 recession was brief because the economy was fundamentally in good shape.
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