Coldest Winter and no fuel??
Discussion
Coldest winter for decade could spark energy crisis
By Angela Jameson, Industrial Correspondent , and David Rose
THE Government has summoned industrialists and generating companies to an emergency meeting next month amid fears of an energy crisis if Britain suffers a harsh winter.
Long-distance forecasters are predicting that the country is facing its coldest weather for a decade, putting lives at risk and forcing businesses to lay off workers.
The CBI said that there were only 11 days’ gas held in reserve. In comparison, other European countries keep an average of 55 days in reserve. The Met Office has already put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert. Now there are fears that Britain could run out of fuel.
Sir Digby Jones, the Director-General of the CBI, said: “If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch; businesses will shut down.”
The National Grid has identified emergency measures to ensure that power is maintained to homeowners. Under the plans, manufacturers who use large amounts of gas for industrial processes would be required to shut down factories on very cold days.
Britain has not had a particularly cold winter for ten years, but some experts believe that temperatures over the coming months could plummet as low as the winters of the 1970s.
Paul Simons, The Times weatherman, said that the shift in temperature was influenced by a phenomonon known as North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, influenced by a lowpressure system over Iceland and high pressure over the warm Azores islands in the sub-tropical Atlantic. When the Icelandic pressure rises and the Azores pressure dips, Britain catches blasts of bitterly cold air.
He said: “In the 1940s the NAO turned negative and brought some of the coldest European winters of the 20th century, including the bitter freezes that helped to defeat Hitler’s invasion of Russia. Another bout of negative NAOs in the 1960s included the worst winter for more than 200 years, when homes were buried under snow and ice floes drifted in the English Channel.
“The Met Office is forecasting a negative NAO this winter. Although they cannot tell how severe the weather will be, the past ten winters had such ridiculously mild weather that even an average British winter will come as a rude shock.”
Last week Ofgem and National Grid Transco gave warning that gas supplies were at their lowest for ten years. The energy market regulator said that large industrial users and gas-fired power stations would be switched off in the event of a severe winter. Gas is used to fuel around two fifths of the country’s power stations.
Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, said: “It’s not about switching off the domestic customers but there could be problems for industry.”
The National Grid has not imposed compulsory measures to conserve power supplies since the blackouts caused by the miners’ strikes during the 1970s.
[url]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8122-1819000,00.html[/url]
So advance notice of cold winter and energy industry appears to be entirely unable to do anything about it. The joys of privatisation and running with no spare capacity for anything out of the norm', is that what passes for efficiency these days?
I quite liked the logic of: it's cold, so we'll have to turn off gas power stations. No electricity, that will be sure to help people keep warm.
By Angela Jameson, Industrial Correspondent , and David Rose
THE Government has summoned industrialists and generating companies to an emergency meeting next month amid fears of an energy crisis if Britain suffers a harsh winter.
Long-distance forecasters are predicting that the country is facing its coldest weather for a decade, putting lives at risk and forcing businesses to lay off workers.
The CBI said that there were only 11 days’ gas held in reserve. In comparison, other European countries keep an average of 55 days in reserve. The Met Office has already put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert. Now there are fears that Britain could run out of fuel.
Sir Digby Jones, the Director-General of the CBI, said: “If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch; businesses will shut down.”
The National Grid has identified emergency measures to ensure that power is maintained to homeowners. Under the plans, manufacturers who use large amounts of gas for industrial processes would be required to shut down factories on very cold days.
Britain has not had a particularly cold winter for ten years, but some experts believe that temperatures over the coming months could plummet as low as the winters of the 1970s.
Paul Simons, The Times weatherman, said that the shift in temperature was influenced by a phenomonon known as North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, influenced by a lowpressure system over Iceland and high pressure over the warm Azores islands in the sub-tropical Atlantic. When the Icelandic pressure rises and the Azores pressure dips, Britain catches blasts of bitterly cold air.
He said: “In the 1940s the NAO turned negative and brought some of the coldest European winters of the 20th century, including the bitter freezes that helped to defeat Hitler’s invasion of Russia. Another bout of negative NAOs in the 1960s included the worst winter for more than 200 years, when homes were buried under snow and ice floes drifted in the English Channel.
“The Met Office is forecasting a negative NAO this winter. Although they cannot tell how severe the weather will be, the past ten winters had such ridiculously mild weather that even an average British winter will come as a rude shock.”
Last week Ofgem and National Grid Transco gave warning that gas supplies were at their lowest for ten years. The energy market regulator said that large industrial users and gas-fired power stations would be switched off in the event of a severe winter. Gas is used to fuel around two fifths of the country’s power stations.
Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, said: “It’s not about switching off the domestic customers but there could be problems for industry.”
The National Grid has not imposed compulsory measures to conserve power supplies since the blackouts caused by the miners’ strikes during the 1970s.
[url]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8122-1819000,00.html[/url]
So advance notice of cold winter and energy industry appears to be entirely unable to do anything about it. The joys of privatisation and running with no spare capacity for anything out of the norm', is that what passes for efficiency these days?
I quite liked the logic of: it's cold, so we'll have to turn off gas power stations. No electricity, that will be sure to help people keep warm.
So why have we only got 11 days of gas in reserve? Wtf is the government playing at? They are supposed to manage this kind of thing and the idea that they will force industry to shut down because we will run out of gas otherwise is a nonsense, what bloody country are we in ffs? Have I woken up in a 3rd world fleapit this morning?
Eric Mc said:
Trying to keep us scared - as usual.
So bloody what if it's a bit colder than normal (which I very much doubt anyway).
Anyone remember 1947/1963/1981?
Excellent year for port, but I'm a bit partial to the '55 myself. it's true too!
I still don't know how the met office knows though. I'm not quite as sceptical as Eric, but is there anyone who actually studies this stuff that can enlighten us?
satch said:
as i said in previous threads - how do they know ?
long range weather forecasting is pointless.
My grandad used to able to do it though. Every year he'd examine the berries on the trees, look at the way the dew lay on the grass etc and pronounce sagely that is was going to be a "hard cold winter, you see if I'm right"
Every bloody year, and okay sometimes he got it right and you'd never hear the end of it.
As I understand it the forecast of a hard winter is simply based on the fact that we haven't had one for 15 years so we should be just about due for one........... now you tell me if the Met Office and their CRAY super computer are any more sophisticated than my Grandpa!
satch said:
as i said in previous threads - how do they know ?
long range weather forecasting is pointless.
EXACTLY, they can't even predict accurately 3 DAYS in advance... why the Ferk do they think they can predict 3 MONTHS in advance..... PAnicmaking by NooLabia and bLAIRS propaganda depts!!!
I read this as well and have been told this a few times.
Right stocked up
1) Torches
2) Matches/lighters
3) Candles x 4
4) Petrol Generator
5) Camping Cooker
6) 12v telly
+ laptop for DVD's
7) Calor gas heater
anything else? As I am worried this might be a nuclear winter.
>> Edited by scared but happy on Wednesday 12th October 09:44
Right stocked up
1) Torches
2) Matches/lighters
3) Candles x 4
4) Petrol Generator
5) Camping Cooker
6) 12v telly
+ laptop for DVD's 7) Calor gas heater
anything else? As I am worried this might be a nuclear winter.
>> Edited by scared but happy on Wednesday 12th October 09:44
funkihamsta said:Even longer range forecasts are that we will have a series of the severest winters for 300 years by the end of the next couple of decades. It could be "interesting" before 2030. In a severe winter there are 20,000 additional premature deaths in the UK alone, compared to a mild winter. In very severe conditions it gets much worse.
THE Government has summoned industrialists and generating companies to an emergency meeting next month amid fears of an energy crisis if Britain suffers a harsh winter.
Long-distance forecasters are predicting that the country is facing its coldest weather for a decade, putting lives at risk and forcing businesses to lay off workers.
Yes, these predictions are based on statistical analysis based on earlier years and on trends established in the past - hot summers followed by cold winters etc etc etc. In other words, not that scientific really and only educated guesswork. Therefore, virtually meaningless.
The track record of accuracy for long range forecasting is no more accurate than if the predictions were made on a pure random outcome basis.
Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong but no more right or wrong than if they had taken random guesses - instead of expending time, effort and money on what was really a pointless exercise.
The track record of accuracy for long range forecasting is no more accurate than if the predictions were made on a pure random outcome basis.
Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong but no more right or wrong than if they had taken random guesses - instead of expending time, effort and money on what was really a pointless exercise.
I assume this is news management ahead of announcements that we are about to begin building Nuclear power stations again.
Lots of press releases going on from the Government about the Greenhouse effect, misssing out Kyoto targets, engery shortages etc. Just looks like the usual build up before a potentially unpopular policy announcement.
Lots of press releases going on from the Government about the Greenhouse effect, misssing out Kyoto targets, engery shortages etc. Just looks like the usual build up before a potentially unpopular policy announcement.
Eric Mc said:If so agreed, but there are other approaches that show a high degree of risk for very cold winters in the next couple of decades. If there are other approaches that 'agree' then we really could be heading for a chill.
Yes, these predictions are based on statistical analysis based on earlier years and on trends established in the past - hot summers followed by cold winters etc etc etc. In other words, not that scientific really and only educated guesswork. Therefore, virtually meaningless.
JMGS4 said:Yes, we can expect APCs or tanks at Heathrow giving out hot water bottles
PAnicmaking by NooLabia and bLAIRS propaganda depts!!!
Eric Mc said:
Yes, these predictions are based on statistical analysis based on earlier years and on trends established in the past - hot summers followed by cold winters etc etc etc. In other words, not that scientific really and only educated guesswork. Therefore, virtually meaningless.
The track record of accuracy for long range forecasting is no more accurate than if the predictions were made on a pure random outcome basis.
Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong but no more right or wrong than if they had taken random guesses - instead of expending time, effort and money on what was really a pointless exercise.
I used to do this, many years ago when I worked in 'soft' commodities, things like wheat, sugar, and even potatoes. Actually it did seem to work quite well. I made a storming series of predictions on wheat and potato prices using UK climate data going back 250 years, very simple method too. Eeee those were the days
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