2025 - Labour budget predictions

[Slow.Patrol]

We are just over 9 weeks until the budget, so let's have your predictions.

Abolishing the tax allowance on savings interest?

Further increase to employer's NI?

Flat rate on pension tax relief?

NI to be paid on unearned income, eg rents

Change to CGT and IHT

I'm quite sure as last year, we will be drip fed bits from various think tanks over the next few weeks to guage responses, only for a curv d ball to be released on the day.

[Lotusgone]

CGT will probably move from the 18/24/10/20 rates to fully align with income tax, maybe also treated as income for the £100k+ allowance erosion.

Restriction of principal private residence for CGT to something like £100k per taxpayer. Maybe linked with an easing of stamp duty at the lower end or for first-time buyers.

The 25% tax-free pension allowance will be restricted to something like £50k.

The £5000 savings allowance will go, leaving only the £1000 available. (if you can afford to live off your interest, you can give us more of your money you rich scumbag)

Sale of UK minted bullion will cease to be tax-free.

(predictions, not my preferences)

[Jockman]

She will extend the freeze on personal allowances for a couple more years.

She will also increase vat on toilet rolls to deter people from crapping themselves every time she opens her mouth.

[Cheib]

I think they'll need to do something meaningful as things like CGT/IHT etc are all playing around at the edges and like the Non Dom rules can drive capital flight so are often not a net positive.

M guess is something like higher rate tax relief on pensions as that's worth £10bil plus a year

And they'll free the bands for income tax for even longer in to the future.

If they bring principal residence in to CGT it will be very expensive to administer as they will have to allow people to offset investments in the property.

I think they really do need to tread a fine line as the Gilt market really will not take kindly to anything too aggressive that will be seen to kill growth. If they do anything else to increase the tax/cost burden for companies that would be seen as being hugely negative for the economy IMHO.

[Rufus Stone]

I'm past caring to be honest. MSM and so called thinktanks (and oxymoron if you ask me) have been speculating for months already and I'm sick of it. Earlier in the week the Mail had two articles on the same day, one telling everyone that they MUST (they put it in capitals) draw their tax free cash now, and the other calling for Reeves to put and end to the speculation on a decrease in the maximum. Such is the state of the press these days.

Thankfully I'm glad I'm on holiday for the two weeks beforehand, returning on Budget day. Wait and see, then deal with it as best I can.

[fat80b]

Cheib said:

I think they really do need to tread a fine line as the Gilt market really will not take kindly to anything too aggressive that will be seen to kill growth. If they do anything else to increase the tax/cost burden for companies that would be seen as being hugely negative for the economy IMHO.

This is the main challenge they have as I see it. They are boxed in

Of the 3 options presented to them of:

• a) increasing the tax take
• b) reducing the government spend
• c) fiddling the fiscal rules

Logic suggests that increasing any tax that might be actually reduce the overall tax take (e.g. CGT) will not help, and fiddling the fiscal rules is likely to spook the markets even further.

So only reducing the government spend can actually calm the gilt/bond markets and increase the headroom / give them breathing space.


If it was me, I'd be thinking it's time to delete Net Zero before it's too late. Fire Miliband on the eve of the budget, announce some drilling for oil and fracking etc and make tax changes that reduce energy costs for businesses (and individuals). Reduce the standing charge and have a path to slashing energy bills in 24 months.

This while politically painful is one of the only ways I can see to actually navigate the problem RR currently has without peeing off too many people....

[Mabbs9]

Rufus Stone said:

I'm past caring to be honest. MSM and so called thinktanks (and oxymoron if you ask me) have been speculating for months already and I'm sick of it. Earlier in the week the Mail had two articles on the same day, one telling everyone that they MUST (they put it in capitals) draw their tax free cash now, and the other calling for Reeves to put and end to the speculation on a decrease in the maximum. Such is the state of the press these days.

Thankfully I'm glad I'm on holiday for the two weeks beforehand, returning on Budget day. Wait and see, then deal with it as best I can.

You blame The Press, I blame the party that is mishandling our economy.

[Rufus Stone]

Mabbs9 said:

You blame The Press, I blame the party that is mishandling our economy.

The Party isn't speculating, and seeking to frighten people into misguided financial decisions.

[Jasandjules]

Screw everyone who isn't (or isn't rich enough) to be a Party Donor.

[768]

I think she'll talk about how we have to live within our means and they've worked up a full programme of efficiency savings to reduce public expenditure.

[Jockman]

Property and Pension wealth will be serious contenders for targeting.

Ironically the tax take has increased but the spending rate has increased greater. She also has to find a £6bn shortfall caused by the welfare cuts U-turn.

[alscar]

No higher rate tax relief on Pension contributions.
Minimum 1p on the basic rate of tax.
Extended freeze on all allowances.
TFLS reduced to £100k.
CGT allowance reduced to Nil and rates increased but not to align with income tax so somewhere in between.
Cash ISA’s reduced to £10k pa.
Principal house remains free of CGT as not workable.
For similar reasons no introduction of further wealth tax as with everything else she needs money now not potentially in the future.
Can’t see her hitting NI again.
No idea what the above in total raises and in reality doubt all will be done but who knows.

[Terminator X]

If this one comes in there will or should be riots ...

"If they bring principal residence in to CGT it will be very expensive to administer as they will have to allow people to offset investments in the property."

TX.

[Jockman]

Terminator X said:

If this one comes in there will or should be riots ...

"If they bring principal residence in to CGT it will be very expensive to administer as they will have to allow people to offset investments in the property."

TX.

lol. If it comes in universally it will crash the housing market.

[andy43]

Jockman said:

Terminator X said:

If this one comes in there will or should be riots ...

"If they bring principal residence in to CGT it will be very expensive to administer as they will have to allow people to offset investments in the property."

TX.

lol. If it comes in universally it will crash the housing market.

And how the fksticks are people going to prove they spent money on improvements?
Receipts? Photos? A bit of advance notice would have been nice.
Utter can of worms.

Stick a bit on income tax. It’s far easier, safer, effective and won’t damage jobs, housing market or businesses.

[Ridgemont]

Terminator X said:

If this one comes in there will or should be riots ...

"If they bring principal residence in to CGT it will be very expensive to administer as they will have to allow people to offset investments in the property."

TX.

I seem to recall the lastest opinion poll putting labour at around 19/20%. Should they pull a stunt like that I think they’re out on their trotters come the next election…

[JoshSm]

Most of the ideas would raise less money than they currently get, and would just trigger damaging side effects.

If they crank CGT people will delay selling assets. If they fiddle with pension relief they'll damage pensions. And so on and so on.

Everything they touch turns to st and they're ideologically opposed to anything that would boost the economy whether that's on the tax or spending side.

I'm at the point where I wish they really will fk it up completely following the ideas of Torsten & Co, crash it all into the ground, and finish this whole charade.

[Jasandjules]

JoshSm said:

Most of the ideas would raise less money than they currently get, and would just trigger damaging side effects.

They seem quite intent on the utter destruction of the country IMHO. It's like salting the earth, rather similar to Labour with Brown/Blair.

[Cheib]

fat80b said:

So only reducing the government spend can actually calm the gilt/bond markets and increase the headroom / give them breathing space.

This is the reality...there needs to be a huge reality check on what is being spent where. I'd say the 6.5million adults on "full time" benefits are a good place to start. I've no clue if I am honest as to what is driving the hugely increased number of people claiming welfare/universal credit but it's been on a fairly steep upward trajectory for a few years. There will be 1980's style riots but someone at some stage is going to have to deal with the issue.

[Sway]

Rufus Stone said:

Mabbs9 said:

You blame The Press, I blame the party that is mishandling our economy.

The Party isn't speculating, and seeking to frighten people into misguided financial decisions.

Sweet summer child.

Ever since Blair, every government has flown ideas out via thinktanks and the press to gauge public reaction. If you think they're just making these things up I have a bridge to sell you.