German Elections - A Statistical Impossibility
Discussion
This has been all over Twitter the last few days but it seems the media are gradually now picking it up
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ge...
The article says 6, but Twitter now saying SEVEN candidates for the AFD party have died in the run up to the elections.
As:
- the domestic and international media tries to tar them as Nazi levels of far right
-the mainstream parties have collectively agreed to "only talk positively about migration" ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/31/... ) despite the same smorgasbord of sex crimes happen there that are happening here
- the overton window shifts dramatically away from the centre
...then unsurprisingly the AFD are making enormous gains and were on track go deliver a bloody nose in the elections. It might well spell a GExit and the end of the EU.
Of course this can't be allowed to happen. You might suggest a requirement for tin foil, but from the available evidence it's quite hard to avoid the conclusion the "the establishment" is now straight up murdering the opposition in the style of the recent Mexican elections where 37 candidates were liquidated....
Of course, I'd love to see someone attempt to claim this is actually just all a massive coincidence...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ge...
The article says 6, but Twitter now saying SEVEN candidates for the AFD party have died in the run up to the elections.
As:
- the domestic and international media tries to tar them as Nazi levels of far right
-the mainstream parties have collectively agreed to "only talk positively about migration" ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/31/... ) despite the same smorgasbord of sex crimes happen there that are happening here
- the overton window shifts dramatically away from the centre
...then unsurprisingly the AFD are making enormous gains and were on track go deliver a bloody nose in the elections. It might well spell a GExit and the end of the EU.
Of course this can't be allowed to happen. You might suggest a requirement for tin foil, but from the available evidence it's quite hard to avoid the conclusion the "the establishment" is now straight up murdering the opposition in the style of the recent Mexican elections where 37 candidates were liquidated....
Of course, I'd love to see someone attempt to claim this is actually just all a massive coincidence...
Anyone saying it’s spastically impossible is talking horse s
t, there are 20,000 candidates. Six have died. It could be they were all called Dave.
It like saying that 89% of people who have a plane crush survive and then saying it’s statistically impossible for a plane to
crash and everyone onboard to die as 11% must survive.
People die all the time. Coincidences happen.
t, there are 20,000 candidates. Six have died. It could be they were all called Dave. It like saying that 89% of people who have a plane crush survive and then saying it’s statistically impossible for a plane to
crash and everyone onboard to die as 11% must survive.
People die all the time. Coincidences happen.
16 candidates have died during the election, of whom 7 were from the AfD.
There were 20,000 candidates running the last time these election were run, with 2,830 seats elected.
The "statistical impossibility" claim comes from this bloke, who doesn't have a great track record for statistical analysis.
There were 20,000 candidates running the last time these election were run, with 2,830 seats elected.
The "statistical impossibility" claim comes from this bloke, who doesn't have a great track record for statistical analysis.
As someone living, and eligible to vote, in Germany I have my own views on AFD. I will say that the hypocrisy of Alice Weidel relative to what her party seemingly stands for is quite interesting.
Setting the above aside, and regardless of the country, it isn’t actually that unusual for people to die in the time between registering as a candidate and the actual election day. In this instance, beyond one being an 80 year-old in poor health, another being 66 and two actually being reserve candidates, I cannot find much detailed information on the seven AFD candidates. That is not particularly surprising in a country where data protection is so strict. Additionally, these are local not national elections so there are generally more candidates anyway, which makes finding information harder.
Overall, like many other countries, the calibre of local election candidates is often questionable irrespective of their particular political leaning. They often tend to older people so that could perhaps be a factor in their passing. I personally struggle to see a hit squad being organised for local election candidates, of course you’re free to feel otherwise.
Setting the above aside, and regardless of the country, it isn’t actually that unusual for people to die in the time between registering as a candidate and the actual election day. In this instance, beyond one being an 80 year-old in poor health, another being 66 and two actually being reserve candidates, I cannot find much detailed information on the seven AFD candidates. That is not particularly surprising in a country where data protection is so strict. Additionally, these are local not national elections so there are generally more candidates anyway, which makes finding information harder.
Overall, like many other countries, the calibre of local election candidates is often questionable irrespective of their particular political leaning. They often tend to older people so that could perhaps be a factor in their passing. I personally struggle to see a hit squad being organised for local election candidates, of course you’re free to feel otherwise.
geeks said:
Statistically improbabilities happen all the time.
The lottery, for example. What is it, 13 million to one against winning the jackpot, yet loads of people do.This thread is a great demonstration of how the vehemently anti-immigration rely on, and deliberately spread, misinformation.
ChemicalChaos said:
This has been all over Twitter the last few days but it seems the media are gradually now picking it up
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ge...
The article says 6, but Twitter now saying SEVEN candidates for the AFD party have died in the run up to the elections.
As:
- the domestic and international media tries to tar them as Nazi levels of far right
-the mainstream parties have collectively agreed to "only talk positively about migration" ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/31/... ) despite the same smorgasbord of sex crimes happen there that are happening here
- the overton window shifts dramatically away from the centre
...then unsurprisingly the AFD are making enormous gains and were on track go deliver a bloody nose in the elections. It might well spell a GExit and the end of the EU.
Of course this can't be allowed to happen. You might suggest a requirement for tin foil, but from the available evidence it's quite hard to avoid the conclusion the "the establishment" is now straight up murdering the opposition in the style of the recent Mexican elections where 37 candidates were liquidated....
Of course, I'd love to see someone attempt to claim this is actually just all a massive coincidence...
Wow!https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ge...
The article says 6, but Twitter now saying SEVEN candidates for the AFD party have died in the run up to the elections.
As:
- the domestic and international media tries to tar them as Nazi levels of far right
-the mainstream parties have collectively agreed to "only talk positively about migration" ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/31/... ) despite the same smorgasbord of sex crimes happen there that are happening here
- the overton window shifts dramatically away from the centre
...then unsurprisingly the AFD are making enormous gains and were on track go deliver a bloody nose in the elections. It might well spell a GExit and the end of the EU.
Of course this can't be allowed to happen. You might suggest a requirement for tin foil, but from the available evidence it's quite hard to avoid the conclusion the "the establishment" is now straight up murdering the opposition in the style of the recent Mexican elections where 37 candidates were liquidated....
Of course, I'd love to see someone attempt to claim this is actually just all a massive coincidence...
KAgantua said:
Murph7355 said:
Cold said:
sugerbear said:
Anyone saying it’s spastically impossible is talking horse st,
Wait, what? I'm not sure anyone is saying that! t, 
ATG said:
KAgantua said:
Murph7355 said:
Cold said:
sugerbear said:
Anyone saying it’s spastically impossible is talking horse st,
Wait, what? I'm not sure anyone is saying that! t, Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff