RE: Small mercies: Aston, McLaren exempt from ZEV

RE: Small mercies: Aston, McLaren exempt from ZEV

Tuesday 8th April

Small mercies: Aston, McLaren exempt from ZEV

Watered down mandate means low-volume manufacturers will not need to worry about EV sales mix. For now


Let’s get the bad news out the way first: the changes being made to the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate will not alter the fundamental trajectory of the UK's combustion engine phaseout. The vast majority will require some degree of electrification by 2030 and by 2035 (barring another seismic shift in the status quo) all will be gone from showrooms. But the government’s new plan - spurred on by the imposition of recently announced US tariffs and now framed as a part of a wider strategy to ‘back British business’ - does bring a significant silver lining to what was previously an ominously dark cloud. 

Most prominently for the readers of these pages is confirmation that ‘small and micro-volume manufacturers’ will be exempt from the mandated EV sales targets. McLaren and Aston Martin were specifically referred to in the government’s press release, although ongoing immunity from ZEV extends to any firm producing fewer than 2,500 cars per year, which means that a host of other British brands - Caterham, Morgan and Ariel among them - are spared the burden of electrifying their lineup ahead of 2035 in a way that would not be commercially sustainable. 

Indeed, ‘preserving some of the UK car industry’s most iconic jewels for years to come’ was cited as the primary reason for the decision, and while it doesn’t remove the obligation to move to a battery-powered solution eventually, those firms will doubtless appreciate the additional breathing room - and the solid footing it now puts their future development plans on. The makers (and buyers) of vans will be similarly pleased: those featuring internal combustion engines will also have a stay of execution, and remain on sale alongside hybrid and fully electric commercial vehicles until 2035. 

For higher volume manufacturers, 2030 remains a substantial speed bump, although the mandate’s framework has been revised to give firms ‘greater freedom on how to meet the target - easing pressure on industry’. Given ZEV’s abject failure to reflect (or predict) the state of the retail market, specifically the scale of demand for electric vehicles, the decision to allow the ongoing sale of hybrid cars until 2035 was likely an easy one to make. Characteristically short on technical detail (the government simply refers to the Toyota Prius and Nissan e-Power in passing) it remains even at this stage, yet the bar will evidently be set low enough to encompass hybrids that don’t require plugging in to charge their batteries. 

As you might expect, this will suit those mainstream manufacturers that have rediscovered an abiding interest in petrol-electric models (Bentley and Land Rover prominent among them) as well as earning the approval of customers apparently keener than ever to buy one. It is also useful in helping said carmakers to exceed their CO2 reduction targets, which in turn makes compliance with the updated ZEV mandate easier to achieve via the Non-Zero Emission Car CO2 Trading Scheme (CCTS). 

While firms are still ultimately heading toward an overall EV sales mix of 80 per cent by 2030, they will be given increased flexibility to miss their annual targets, providing they can make up the difference in subsequent years. Still a sticking plaster then, but a larger one thanks to longer timelines and reduced fines. The government might have gone much further still - last Friday the SMMT suggested that additional incentives were required to lift the battery electric market much beyond the best-ever 19.4% market share it recorded in March - but in his statement, the Prime Minister reiterated a wider political concern: “[These changes] will help ensure home-grown firms can export British cars built by British workers around the world and the industry can look forward with confidence, as well as back with pride.” 


Author
Discussion

wistec1

Original Poster:

579 posts

53 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Wonderful, absolutely brilliant news. It's amazing how fragile EV is. It's took just three words and some tarrifs to screw the game plan. Drill baby Drill. Long live ICE.

A500leroy

6,355 posts

130 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Seems like it's keep the rich buyers happy, screw the workers and get them on public transport to me.
Monday 7th April
quotequote all
So my takeaway from this is, it’s important to have targets, to give people something to aim for - irrespective if it’s sensible or possible. And the target will just be changed by the grown ups, as and when, largely for political (and for which I see economic and political as the same thing), purposes.

So that’s all good then.

plfrench

3,317 posts

280 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
So very little to appease the SMMT then - they were keen to see increased incentives for people to buy.

Strange no definition of allowable hybrids has yet been provided; that was a key focus of the consultation.

To be fair, they couldn’t sensibly have actually watered down the targets without being legally challenged by those manufacturers who were already on track. Just increasing flexibility to defer performance was a pretty safe move to make.

ThingsBehindTheSun

1,789 posts

43 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Do we really believe that all ICE sales will be banned in 4 years and 8 months? Or will they move the goal posts and decide that any type of hybrid no matter how mild is allowed?

What about ICE Vans and HGVs, will these be banned as well?

MCBrowncoat

1,252 posts

158 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
wistec1 said:
Wonderful, absolutely brilliant news. It's amazing how fragile EV is. It's took just three words and some tarrifs to screw the game plan. Drill baby Drill. Long live ICE.
Looking forward to this guy getting up to 1,000 posts...

rolleyes

RS_MAN_CHILD

537 posts

281 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
No way they ban ICE when they suggest they want to!

Oil trillionaire producers will never allow that to happen either they can just buy all EV battery makers with pocket change hidden behind the sofa LOL

Sooner or later EVEN the current government will understand net zero & EV are lame ducks & dead end policies! its just a game of wait & see until then.....

SDK

1,521 posts

265 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
It makes total sense to have low volume car makers exempt - these things do maybe a couple of hundred miles a month.
It’s the day-to-day mass production ICE dross which needs go : No one NEEDS an ICE car for this type of use.

The actual pure ICE ‘ban’ is also irrelevant. That could be totally removed, but the tax so high on them it makes them impossible to buy and use, for the majority of people.

Stick Legs

6,800 posts

177 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Common sense would dictate that for the 90% of motorists for whom a car is an expensive white good, the thing they lease or PCP to get about in & telegraph success to their fellow man, that an EV will do the job just fine.
This 90% are probably 99% of commuting traffic.

If you strip that away the remaining cars, both classics & low volume production cars won’t have much impact at all.

My TVR has only 58000 miles on it in 30 years.
Most Aston Martins, Morgans, Ferraris etc etc will be similarly low annual mileage.

It makes sense to have a secondary taxation class with city centre restrictions on ICE cars after say 2045. Leaving the 10% of us who like cars as a recreational hobby the space to use them.

But all of this is far too sensible and won’t happen.

W12AAM

133 posts

93 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
At last...The wheels are starting to come off "Nut-Zero" !

rider73

3,827 posts

89 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
ThingsBehindTheSun said:
Do we really believe that all ICE sales will be banned in 4 years and 8 months? Or will they move the goal posts and decide that any type of hybrid no matter how mild is allowed?

What about ICE Vans and HGVs, will these be banned as well?
This. Not a chance. Vans and hgv will get an extension for sure. Then the car companies will threaten 10000s of jobs and that will push the date again. It will be an ever shifting 5 years.

cerb4.5lee

35,788 posts

192 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
SDK said:
It makes total sense to have low volume car makers exempt - these things do maybe a couple of hundred miles a month.
It’s the day-to-day mass production ICE dross which needs go : No one NEEDS an ICE car for this type of use.

The actual pure ICE ‘ban’ is also irrelevant. That could be totally removed, but the tax so high on them it makes them impossible to buy and use, for the majority of people.
The big problem is that hardly anyone WANTS an electric car either though, and if ICE wasn't being banned, and if EVs didn't have tax incentives etc, then basically nobody would buy them in my view.

So I'm not sure what was the most daft idea to be honest, the banning of ICE in the first place, or the actual development of electric cars to start with in fairness.

roadster1_98

7 posts

208 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Excellent! This will annoy the fk out of the right people.

Water Fairy

6,011 posts

167 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Are we starting to see the cracks appear in what was/is a stupid mandate?

Let's hope so.

Fatherdougal

205 posts

62 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Brilliant news - and hopefully just the tip of the iceberg for more rowing-back of policies that only degrade all the advancements we have made...

WPA

11,406 posts

126 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
rider73 said:
ThingsBehindTheSun said:
Do we really believe that all ICE sales will be banned in 4 years and 8 months? Or will they move the goal posts and decide that any type of hybrid no matter how mild is allowed?

What about ICE Vans and HGVs, will these be banned as well?
This. Not a chance. Vans and hgv will get an extension for sure. Then the car companies will threaten 10000s of jobs and that will push the date again. It will be an ever shifting 5 years.
+1 Just cannot see it happening in such a short space of time

howardhughes

1,190 posts

216 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Impossible targets set by imbecile Governments, past and present.

andrewpandrew

133 posts

1 month

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
A move that is completely meaningless to 99.9% of the car buying public. No surprise to see the usual suspects celebrating it like a lottery win biglaugh

plfrench

3,317 posts

280 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
There’s a lot of people getting excited about being allowed to buy an ePower Nissan Quashqai in 2032 here!

That’s about the biggest ‘watering down’ that’s occurred here! The position on allowing small and micro nanufacturers to continue to be exempt from ZEV Mandate isn’t a u-turn as their position for 2030-34 had never been defined until now.

SpadeBrigade

751 posts

151 months

Monday 7th April
quotequote all
Slightly confused how they refer to AM specifically, then they’ve decided the cut off is 2500 cars a year…AM make more than double that. So how is that going to work?