Time in the market not timing the market but…
Discussion
Skyedriver said:
Jiebo said:
If you have the ability to time the market just right, let me know and we can make millions.
Was just thinking maybe a couple of days or weeks to see what happens after tomorrow (and his next six or seven sudden manic decisions).Drip-feed if it feels better. Or go with a MM fund if you really think this is going downhill all the way....
Skyedriver said:
Jiebo said:
If you have the ability to time the market just right, let me know and we can make millions.
Was just thinking maybe a couple of days or weeks to see what happens after tomorrow (and his next six or seven sudden manic decisions).
Skyedriver said:
With my son's new LISA, worth holding back on selecting a fund until the orange Trump tariff dust has settled?
So you are considering waiting for the S & P to get back on track and not take the 4% discount (S&P 500 down 4% YTD)Not all US equity funds are down ..... DODGX is up3.5% YTD, an index S & P might suit you.
Skyedriver said:
jeff m said:
So you are considering waiting for the S & P to get back on track and not take the 4% discount (S&P 500 down 4% YTD)
Good point I hadn't really thought that through although the comment above about the present White House occupant still raises a doubt in my tired brain.There was some analysis once that showed around 2/3rds of the time you are better off lump sum investing. 1/3rd would get best results drip feeding.
Googling “lump sum v dollar cost averaging” shows a few results….maybe it is 55-65% best lumping it in.
My personal preference is always to drip it in, but if I had a large lump, I’d maybe do that in just 2 or 3 chunks.
mikeiow said:
Nobody here knows, but if it is invested for 5+ years, and you are not convinced we are heading to US Armageddon, then stop overthinking it.
There was some analysis once that showed around 2/3rds of the time you are better off lump sum investing. 1/3rd would get best results drip feeding.
Googling “lump sum v dollar cost averaging” shows a few results….maybe it is 55-65% best lumping it in.
My personal preference is always to drip it in, but if I had a large lump, I’d maybe do that in just 2 or 3 chunks.
I think with the present dark shadows, dripping it in over maybe the next couple of weeks might be the best option for a cautious me. (If it was my money I may think differently but this is my student son's hard earned so I don't want to F-it up). Yes we are 4% down YTD but by Friday that could be 14% down if Trump gets his way. I bet he's loving this, the whole world (or most of it) waiting to see what he says or does.There was some analysis once that showed around 2/3rds of the time you are better off lump sum investing. 1/3rd would get best results drip feeding.
Googling “lump sum v dollar cost averaging” shows a few results….maybe it is 55-65% best lumping it in.
My personal preference is always to drip it in, but if I had a large lump, I’d maybe do that in just 2 or 3 chunks.
My ISA is down 25% in the past few weeks, so I have been a right Gordon Gecko and moved some money from my high interest savings to 'buy the dip' - I'm not planning on extracting from the ISA for at least 5 years (it is part of my retirement planning) - if things haven't recovered by then we'll all have bigger problems to worry about.
Skyedriver said:
I think with the present dark shadows, dripping it in over maybe the next couple of weeks might be the best option for a cautious me. (If it was my money I may think differently but this is my student son's hard earned so I don't want to F-it up). Yes we are 4% down YTD but by Friday that could be 14% down if Trump gets his way. I bet he's loving this, the whole world (or most of it) waiting to see what he says or does.
Surely if you were being cautious you'd just wait a bit until the Trump strategy becomes clear?You may miss the absolute bottom but at least we should have a better idea if he's actually going to stick with a plan that we can work around.
Skyedriver said:
With my son's new LISA, worth holding back on selecting a fund until the orange Trump tariff dust has settled?
Personally if I had a significant lump sum (whether you consider your son’s LISA significant depends on your personal circumstances) I’d DCA in over twelve months. Statistically that loses 2/3rds of the time. But it’s better for my blood pressure!
Time in the market is so often incorrectly applied.
I know someone who has for years trotted out this phrase but only holds 10 to 20 stocks across a number of indexes, I gave up trying to make an otherwise logical person see that he is not in the "market" in the sense of that quote
Also we attribute things to ourselves that are not really accurate, for example for years I listened to Ray Dalio, Howard Marks etc, all super smart but what they say and how they act and invest is 95% irrelevant to me as sadly I don't have a $150B portfolio to manage.
And getting to the point of market timing, if your a Fidelity Super tanker then you have no option but to be invested as it's your mandate but if you're a little Aldi blow up inflatable you have more choices and there are lots of inexpensive proprietary software which if someone bothers will tell about buys and sells in the stock market and whether more buyers or sellers are coming in.
I know someone who has for years trotted out this phrase but only holds 10 to 20 stocks across a number of indexes, I gave up trying to make an otherwise logical person see that he is not in the "market" in the sense of that quote
Also we attribute things to ourselves that are not really accurate, for example for years I listened to Ray Dalio, Howard Marks etc, all super smart but what they say and how they act and invest is 95% irrelevant to me as sadly I don't have a $150B portfolio to manage.
And getting to the point of market timing, if your a Fidelity Super tanker then you have no option but to be invested as it's your mandate but if you're a little Aldi blow up inflatable you have more choices and there are lots of inexpensive proprietary software which if someone bothers will tell about buys and sells in the stock market and whether more buyers or sellers are coming in.
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