Will we see a end to cheap overnight energy deals?
Discussion
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Quattr04. said:
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
maybe we'll see guaranteed cheap windows overnight go, but dynamic pricing will come to the fore such as octopus agile. can't see it happening for a good few years though.Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Quattr04. said:
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Would push everyone to install panelsMost energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
I'll get my crystal ball out 
Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
Zero Fuchs said:
I'll get my crystal ball out
Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
Over the course of 12 months, Octopus expects the increase in day rate to affect my bill to the tune of £7.23. Our day rate (north west) is going up to 29.571p.Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
The loss of the cheap overnight rate would impact us massively, as we essentially time shift all of our grid use to that period by ensuring our solar batteries are filled off-peak. Our average p/kwh over the last 12 months has been under 8p/kwh such is the effect of the battery and solar.
Here’s hoping it stays for at least the payback period of our system (currently around 4 years away).
Edited by paradigital on Sunday 23 March 10:11
Of course we didn’t see the need for a price cap or the end of really good fixed price deals until the crisis hit, so maybe something will happen to trigger the loss of these deals. I do wonder how long the will be exclusive to ev’s, but nothing in the short term that would end them. We are told that standard change free deals are coming. Personally I suspected these will fairly short lived as they won’t help the people on light budgets constraints, more likely good news if you have solar and a batteries.
Quattr04. said:
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Um, no. What may happen with smart meters is a cleverer way of doing it - so rather than a blanket rate, you could imagine setting your own rule saying "if the rate is below 7p, charge till full - if between 7-10p, charge until I have 150 miles range, 10-20p, charge to 50 miles range, above that don't charge"Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Zero Fuchs said:
I'll get my crystal ball out
Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
This all day long.Cheap rate is designed to help balance the grid somewhat. Until we have some level of parity, I can't see it. It needs to at least reach some threshold before the incentive isn't required. When that threshold is reached is anyone's guess.
Octopus has just notified me of prices changes. My off peak remains at 7p but the off peak is going up to 27p. This is offset marginally by the standing charge that is being reduced to 48p. Not much of an offset but am not really worrying about the 2p increase to off peak.
I never expected an EV to be cheap forever. So will be grateful what what I have saved since I bought an EV 6 years ago. If it takes another 5-10 years for an EV to cost the same to run as my ICE then I'll be happy for the opportunity.
I can also see smart meters being used to allow flex in the amount of revenue the government get from EV charging.
Enjoy it while it's here. The country doesn't have a pot to piss in, so every avenue to ream the electorate will be taken.
Flexible time of use tariffs exist because it's cheaper to sell excess/unused power, to balance generation, than pay generators to not generate.
Until this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
Until this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
wisbech said:
Um, no. What may happen with smart meters is a cleverer way of doing it - so rather than a blanket rate, you could imagine setting your own rule saying "if the rate is below 7p, charge till full - if between 7-10p, charge until I have 150 miles range, 10-20p, charge to 50 miles range, above that don't charge"
this exists. on agile and similar tariffs, if you have an ohme charger or similar you can set a max cost per kWh and the charger will only operate below that threshold. was fun when you could set it at -2p or thereabouts on a really windy, sunny day.Two countries I'm somewhat familiar with:
In Switzerland, the change is slower, but I expect a typical Swiss leap over intermediate steps/approaches will happen sooner or later. For example, the opinions towards nuclear power (and perhaps wind power, to a lesser degree) have shifted quite dramatically, but it will take time before this leads to collecting signatures and putting policy changes to enable increased production to the vote.
I'm an optimist in general, so I assume electrification or everything that can be electrified will happen and lead to lower average prices of electricity due to economies of scale. If you, e.g. live next to a low-carbon steel production facility (ones that are needed. to tackle 7% of global GHG emissions), you're next to a supply system capable of at least 1GW of continuous, cheap power. 100kWh car batteries are rounding errors in that setting, barely worth billing for.
- Switzerland (Geneva): you can opt for a flat price or dual tariff (the old-fashioned day/night rate). IIRC, with dual tariff, the price would be CHF 0.17 per kWh (not great, not horrible)
- Finland: everything seems to be negotiable: you can choose providers for connection and energy, you can get fixed price contract or opt for a spot market one. On the spot market, the price of electricity has been slightly negative or over 2€/kWh - worth it if you can shift your consumption to cheap hours.
In Switzerland, the change is slower, but I expect a typical Swiss leap over intermediate steps/approaches will happen sooner or later. For example, the opinions towards nuclear power (and perhaps wind power, to a lesser degree) have shifted quite dramatically, but it will take time before this leads to collecting signatures and putting policy changes to enable increased production to the vote.
I'm an optimist in general, so I assume electrification or everything that can be electrified will happen and lead to lower average prices of electricity due to economies of scale. If you, e.g. live next to a low-carbon steel production facility (ones that are needed. to tackle 7% of global GHG emissions), you're next to a supply system capable of at least 1GW of continuous, cheap power. 100kWh car batteries are rounding errors in that setting, barely worth billing for.
SDK said:
Flexible time of use tariffs exist because it's cheaper to sell excess/unused power, to balance generation, than pay generators to not generate.
Until this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
That’s interesting to know, and I suppose we will eventually get to that level. 3 million car isn’t a huge amount for the UKUntil this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
Quattr04. said:
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Perhaps you should massively overthink it and look at the simple all day tariff of 'about 30p' and the rough guide to EV economy of 'about 3 miles/kWh', giving a price per mile of roughly 10p.Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
I can see my diesel economy ranging from around 13 to 20p per mile.
But unless you do a lot of miles, the cost of owning the car usually exceeds the fuel cost. I budget £2500 a year for a shed, depreciation, insurance, tax, maintenance, against less than £2000 in fuel.
Most people are paying north of 50p per mile in 'non fuel' costs, so an extra shilling on power is just a detail.
I think the system of electricity tariffs is evolving quite fast, and the ground rules of the game are changing. Massive amounts of solar being installed, more battery storage.But as yet the impact of EVs is small. A million EVs doing 10k miles a year is about 11GWh a night if they all only charge 6 nights a week.
It's going to take a lot more EVs to smooth out demand, which is generally 5 to 10GW lower for 5 hours or so overnight.
I suspect the prospect of cheap rate night electricity disappearing should not bother anyone thinking about leasing an EV for the next 3 years.
But beyond that, who really knows?
Quattr04. said:
That’s interesting to know, and I suppose we will eventually get to that level. 3 million car isn’t a huge amount for the UK
Remember that not all the cars will charge at the same time.Plus with improving battery tech, you will be able to get more for your Kwh.
Assuming a full charge every night gives you 300 miles.
How many EV cars in the UK do 100,000 miles in Y1?
The average house uses at least twice the electricity of the average EV. That's just for normal appliances and lighting.
A heatpump in a small terraced house will use about the same as the average EV.
The switch to LED lighting has saved getting on for what the average EV will use.
When V2H and V2G become reality, that'll pretty much solve the "unreliabilty" of renewables. An EV can store enough electricity to run a house and heatpump for at least a day, and still have enough left for the average daily commute.
To me, EVs are the "solution", not a reason for suppliers to ditch off-peak tariffs.
A heatpump in a small terraced house will use about the same as the average EV.
The switch to LED lighting has saved getting on for what the average EV will use.
When V2H and V2G become reality, that'll pretty much solve the "unreliabilty" of renewables. An EV can store enough electricity to run a house and heatpump for at least a day, and still have enough left for the average daily commute.
To me, EVs are the "solution", not a reason for suppliers to ditch off-peak tariffs.
Pistonheadsdicoverer said:
Remember that not all the cars will charge at the same time.
Plus with improving battery tech, you will be able to get more for your Kwh.
Assuming a full charge every night gives you 300 miles.
How many EV cars in the UK do 100,000 miles in Y1?
That's largely wrong.Plus with improving battery tech, you will be able to get more for your Kwh.
Assuming a full charge every night gives you 300 miles.
How many EV cars in the UK do 100,000 miles in Y1?
EV batteries are pretty efficient already, changing the battery will have virtually no effect on the kwh per mile figure.
Some new unicorn battery might be lighter which always helps. But the cars people will be buying for the next 5 years are today's tech.
If you take a typical 3mi'kWh, and 10k miles a year, each EV typically wants 9 0r 10 kWh per night.
The difference between peak and off peak demand yesterday was under 10GW. The slack period at night is only a few hours, so it only takes a few million cars to use all that.
I'm pretty sure the tariff system will be unrecognisably different in 10 years, maybe as soon as 5 years?
We are still burning gas for electricity pretty much 24/7. There really isn't any 'free' electricity yet.
It's only limitations of the grid and the crazy market system which make really cheap off peak power viable.
There are other things going on too.
It's not just cars, but vans and buses which are turning EV. Vans will get used heavily and use more kWh. Buses likewise.
There are other things like heat pumps which will use more power at night.
It's plausible that the cheapest power will be at random times in daytime due to solar.
I'd like to think that renewables will make electricity generally cheaper before too long, but that might mean peak prices being higher, for a shorter peak period of the day?
SDK said:
Flexible time of use tariffs exist because it's cheaper to sell excess/unused power, to balance generation, than pay generators to not generate.
Until this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
Correct. The only reason electricity is cheap (at the minute) overnight is because there's excess generation of it that isn't being used.Until this falls away, they will be here to stay.
e.g. Most of the overnight power is offshore wind and more of this is being installed. Also, currently there is around 20GW difference between peak demand and average off peak demand. 20GW is a lot of EV's all home charging at once (About 3 million)
It's why Economy 7 existed in the old days.
As EV take up increases and the excess disappears, so too will cheap tariffs. But I don't think this will be for a good 10 or 15 years yet.
Truck charging is starting to grow and that is more of the 'concern' if you are worried about cheap overnight prices.
Large batteries in trucks will use considerable power and be charged o/n to allow max range in the daytime.
In the short term (3-5yrs) I do not believe that there will be much change in the cheap rate as there is oversupply (you can't really turn a nuclear power station off, CCGT have a minimum stable load. Also, the plethora of wind / solar being developed will see more produced in daytime, some of which will be put into battery storage.
So, you may well see an end of cheap o/n deals, but smart charging will be more apparent and said before, the ability to top up when supply > demand means there will still be some cheap prices available.
Germany / Netherlands are starting to see negative prices on weekdays at lunchtime ... on a smart tariff you could get cheap energy to the consumer then.
Large batteries in trucks will use considerable power and be charged o/n to allow max range in the daytime.
In the short term (3-5yrs) I do not believe that there will be much change in the cheap rate as there is oversupply (you can't really turn a nuclear power station off, CCGT have a minimum stable load. Also, the plethora of wind / solar being developed will see more produced in daytime, some of which will be put into battery storage.
So, you may well see an end of cheap o/n deals, but smart charging will be more apparent and said before, the ability to top up when supply > demand means there will still be some cheap prices available.
Germany / Netherlands are starting to see negative prices on weekdays at lunchtime ... on a smart tariff you could get cheap energy to the consumer then.
Quattr04. said:
As a massive overthinker now looking into getting a EV, I am looking at energy plans and charging etc
Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
You’re definitely overthinking it! One thing that you can be sure of, it won’t be costing more to ‘fuel’ a EV when charging from home at any foreseeable future state than it would cost to fuel a petrol or Diesel. The price of fossil fuels will only go up considerably from here on in. 20 years time I’d think it would be extremely expensive to obtain fossil fuels. Most energy companies offer a cheap tariff when you charge overnight, but as we’ve seen with the price cap, it’s just used as a racket to basically the maximum they can.
As EVs become more common place,and most homes with a driveway have one with a charger overnight, will these energy companies cash in and come up with a way to remove the cheap tariffs and blame it on demand being as high during the night as it in the day?
What sort of costs would it then be to charge a EV at the same KWH price as in the day?
Edited by plfrench on Sunday 23 March 19:49
And, in case you are interested in costs on a EV tariff, we work from home most days, have a big house with an electric Aga, and 2 EVs. So heavy users - day and night. However, on Octopus Intelligent, are average price per kWh over the last year has been 13.7 pence. Excellent value and we used to spend more every month on petrol for just one car than we do now on electricity for the house and both EVs.
Although the car was a RS6......
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