Pound to Euro exchange rate outlook
Discussion
In the next month or two I shall be needing to exchange a considerable sum from pounds into Euro's (7 figures)
I've just seemingly missed the boat on getting 1.20 to the £ bugger, but now that I've got the funds in the bank I can opt to forward fix with a forex co now to secure 1.19 odd but not sure what the likely trend is going forward with all the world wide uncertainties at the moment & wondered if there was any likely trend one way or the other from the knowledgable folk of Pistonheads points of view?
I've just seemingly missed the boat on getting 1.20 to the £ bugger, but now that I've got the funds in the bank I can opt to forward fix with a forex co now to secure 1.19 odd but not sure what the likely trend is going forward with all the world wide uncertainties at the moment & wondered if there was any likely trend one way or the other from the knowledgable folk of Pistonheads points of view?
Can’t see it moving much either way from 1.20. Germany lifting their debt brake will help (in my crystal ball) though I can’t see Reeves helping our side later this month either…
Just do like most suggest and exchange 50% now and 50% next month. You’ll either win or lose less than if you’d waited and done it all!
Just do like most suggest and exchange 50% now and 50% next month. You’ll either win or lose less than if you’d waited and done it all!
No one really knows. It's one of the deepest, most liquid and widely followed markets in the world so If anyone here had any public and particularly useful info/insight, it'd be in the price already.
And forwards/futures prices, as eyebeebe says, are a function of the interest rate differential between the two currencies, rather than a reflection of what the market thinks the spot price will be - see https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/covered-inter...
And forwards/futures prices, as eyebeebe says, are a function of the interest rate differential between the two currencies, rather than a reflection of what the market thinks the spot price will be - see https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/covered-inter...
Rate last May/June was around 1.16 to £ , so 1.19/1.20 is a very good offer!
Currently sat on a sunny terrace on the Algarve, 'er indoors like to have a bit of 'proper money' in 'er purse so I went to a local ATM that know talks English to get her 100e or so the other day. Offered the ATM my Nationwide debit card and for 150e it told me I would pay £145! I declined, my own bank then made a better offer of around £128....checked my statement this morning and rate was 1.21, but the sting in the tail was a £3.87 'non-sterling exchange fee'!
Incedently, most of my spending here has been on a Trading212 supplied debit card, either getting a 'spot rate' exchange or by swapping sterling to euro via their slappy thing, when the rate offered was 1.21 I swapped £1000!
Good luck with your purchase, OP.
Currently sat on a sunny terrace on the Algarve, 'er indoors like to have a bit of 'proper money' in 'er purse so I went to a local ATM that know talks English to get her 100e or so the other day. Offered the ATM my Nationwide debit card and for 150e it told me I would pay £145! I declined, my own bank then made a better offer of around £128....checked my statement this morning and rate was 1.21, but the sting in the tail was a £3.87 'non-sterling exchange fee'!
Incedently, most of my spending here has been on a Trading212 supplied debit card, either getting a 'spot rate' exchange or by swapping sterling to euro via their slappy thing, when the rate offered was 1.21 I swapped £1000!
Good luck with your purchase, OP.
For a decent sized trade, I suspect you could get 1:20 today, if you shop around. The interbank rate is a very good guide, but sentiment can create wiggle room either side.
However you do need the trading accounts as setting one up can take several days and so prevents you from making a quick decision if the rate suddenly moves in your favour.
The BoE interest meetings tends to have a favourable effect if rates are unlikely to be changed
Thursday, 20 March 2025.
Thursday, 8 May 2025.
Thursday, 19 June 2025.
Thursday, 7 August 2025.
Thursday, 18 September 2025.
Thursday, 6 November 2025.
Thursday, 18 December 2025.
However you do need the trading accounts as setting one up can take several days and so prevents you from making a quick decision if the rate suddenly moves in your favour.
The BoE interest meetings tends to have a favourable effect if rates are unlikely to be changed
Thursday, 20 March 2025.
Thursday, 8 May 2025.
Thursday, 19 June 2025.
Thursday, 7 August 2025.
Thursday, 18 September 2025.
Thursday, 6 November 2025.
Thursday, 18 December 2025.
Brilliant thanks for the feedback guys.
I was worried by the falling value over the last few days & the absolute uncertainty of things going forward plus having bought my last property at 1.15 to the pound it still isn't bad & dealt today at a smidge under 1.19 whilst still in the UK as moving that sort of money quickly when you're not in the country is very tricky to arrange so saves me having to fly back.
However you may know it rose again later in the day but hey ho it's done now & could equally have gone the other way big time
I was worried by the falling value over the last few days & the absolute uncertainty of things going forward plus having bought my last property at 1.15 to the pound it still isn't bad & dealt today at a smidge under 1.19 whilst still in the UK as moving that sort of money quickly when you're not in the country is very tricky to arrange so saves me having to fly back.
However you may know it rose again later in the day but hey ho it's done now & could equally have gone the other way big time
Depends when you "need" the funds.
If was me ( I have been here before a long time ago with USD ) fix 50% now and leave the other half until you decide/need later
Ask yourself since its not involving USD ( so a major risk/upside) and only GBPEUR ..... what are the serious chances of thinks in British economy likely to be significantly better in a couple of years compared to now ? With all the "worry" in the world I speculate that its most likely Europe and British fortunes will float or sink together
If was me ( I have been here before a long time ago with USD ) fix 50% now and leave the other half until you decide/need later
Ask yourself since its not involving USD ( so a major risk/upside) and only GBPEUR ..... what are the serious chances of thinks in British economy likely to be significantly better in a couple of years compared to now ? With all the "worry" in the world I speculate that its most likely Europe and British fortunes will float or sink together
ferret50 said:
Rate last May/June was around 1.16 to £ , so 1.19/1.20 is a very good offer!
Currently sat on a sunny terrace on the Algarve, 'er indoors like to have a bit of 'proper money' in 'er purse so I went to a local ATM that know talks English to get her 100e or so the other day. Offered the ATM my Nationwide debit card and for 150e it told me I would pay £145! I declined, my own bank then made a better offer of around £128....checked my statement this morning and rate was 1.21, but the sting in the tail was a £3.87 'non-sterling exchange fee'!
Incedently, most of my spending here has been on a Trading212 supplied debit card, either getting a 'spot rate' exchange or by swapping sterling to euro via their slappy thing, when the rate offered was 1.21 I swapped £1000!
Good luck with your purchase, OP.
6% up over last 2 yrs https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to...Currently sat on a sunny terrace on the Algarve, 'er indoors like to have a bit of 'proper money' in 'er purse so I went to a local ATM that know talks English to get her 100e or so the other day. Offered the ATM my Nationwide debit card and for 150e it told me I would pay £145! I declined, my own bank then made a better offer of around £128....checked my statement this morning and rate was 1.21, but the sting in the tail was a £3.87 'non-sterling exchange fee'!
Incedently, most of my spending here has been on a Trading212 supplied debit card, either getting a 'spot rate' exchange or by swapping sterling to euro via their slappy thing, when the rate offered was 1.21 I swapped £1000!
Good luck with your purchase, OP.
and 3.4% over 5 yr
just don't look at 10yr data
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to...
Which would be more of a problem - the rate dropping to say 1.15 or lower - or the disappointment of the rate going to say 1.25 or higher ?
I'm about to complete a property purchase and decided that I'd rather know I can complete it - I panicked a bit in January when it dropped, so pulled the trigger on 70% of the money at 1.19 and was then slightly miffed as it rose back up - but I'd have likely missed out on 1.21 and be back at 1.19. In the end I'm happy to know I can complete my purchase next month.
As others have said, there's no crystal ball
I'm about to complete a property purchase and decided that I'd rather know I can complete it - I panicked a bit in January when it dropped, so pulled the trigger on 70% of the money at 1.19 and was then slightly miffed as it rose back up - but I'd have likely missed out on 1.21 and be back at 1.19. In the end I'm happy to know I can complete my purchase next month.
As others have said, there's no crystal ball
rdjohn said:
For a decent sized trade, I suspect you could get 1:20 today, if you shop around. The interbank rate is a very good guide, but sentiment can create wiggle room either side.
The BoE interest meetings tends to have a favourable effect if rates are unlikely to be changed
Thursday, 20 March 2025.
Thursday, 8 May 2025.
Thursday, 19 June 2025.
Thursday, 7 August 2025.
Thursday, 18 September 2025.
Thursday, 6 November 2025.
Thursday, 18 December 2025.
Interest rate was set to remain at 4.5% until 8 May and so the rate is 1.195 to reflect that the EU reduced theirs to 2.65% on 6 March. Such a big difference is likely to attract short term funds despite the UK growth rate being in the doldrums.The BoE interest meetings tends to have a favourable effect if rates are unlikely to be changed
Thursday, 20 March 2025.
Thursday, 8 May 2025.
Thursday, 19 June 2025.
Thursday, 7 August 2025.
Thursday, 18 September 2025.
Thursday, 6 November 2025.
Thursday, 18 December 2025.
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