EV take more than 1/5th of registrations in Jan

[Pistonheadsdicoverer]

January's results reflect the ongoing decline from late last year, marking four straight months of contraction in the new car market” said Sue Robinson, Chief Executive of the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA), which represents franchised car and commercial vehicle retailers in the UK commenting on the latest SMMT new car registration figures.

In January, a total of 139,345 new cars were registered, a decrease of -2.5% from the same period last year. Sales to private buyers were down by -0.5%; fleet registrations were also down by -3.7%.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) saw a sizeable increase, up 41.6% to 29,634 units, to make up a market share of 21.3%. Plug-in hybrid (PHEVs) registrations also rose by 9.0% to 12,598 units, as did hybrids (HEVs) by 2.9% to 18,413 units.

Diesel fell from 9,348 units to 8,625 units (-7.7%), and petrol also dropped from 82,753 units to 70,075 units (-15.3%).

Sue Robinson concluded, “Fleet and private demand continue to see declines. Conversely, BEVs have seen a strong start, taking more than a fifth of new car registrations. It is important to highlight that the ZEV mandate quota for new cars will increase to 28% this year.

“In NFDA’s 2025 Outlook Survey*, dealers were concerned with the outlook for 2025, with 71% selecting ‘pessimistic’ in response to how they view the overall trading environment for the year ahead, while 29% were ‘slightly optimistic.’

“Also in the survey, dealers highlighted the need for government support, including incentives such as grants and investments in charging infrastructure. They also stressed the continued benefits of hybrids beyond 2030. These will be highlighted in NFDA’s response to the phase-out date/ZEV mandate consultation this month.

“2025 is expected to bring notable changes for automotive dealers, including an increase in Employers' National Insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15% and the introduction of Vehicle Excise Duty on electric vehicles. The UK automotive sector is a vital sector in the UK and historically NFDA members have been very flexible and resilient to headwinds.”

[Nomme de Plum]

I believe new car sales in January and February are generally a bit slow and it's no surprise that new car sales are down generally given the economic times we are in. BEV sales still being relatively buoyant seems to be indicating gradual acceptance.

It will still be the used market that gives a better indicator of the market.

[braddo]

Several cheaper and more appealing EVs coming to market in 2025 too. Not a coincidence that it happens in line with the ZEV mandate rising to 28%.

Most manufacturers planning very carefully for their compliance with regulations to be the absolute minimum they can get away with. Just like any highly competitive industry

[kambites]

I think for now there's still plenty of scope for EV growth with the infrastructure in broadly its current state so we'll continue to see steady growth in new sales. The interesting point for the market and the ZEV mandate is going to be in about 3 or 4 years when the "people who can charge at home" market starts to approach saturation. If the government and/or industry hasn't already solved that problem somehow by that point, sales are likely to simply flat-line.

[Pistonheadsdicoverer]

kambites said:

I think for now there's still plenty of scope for EV growth with the infrastructure in broadly its current state so we'll continue to see steady growth in new sales. The interesting point for the market and the ZEV mandate is going to be in about 3 or 4 years when the "people who can charge at home" market starts to approach saturation. If the government and/or industry hasn't already solved that problem somehow by that point, sales are likely to simply flat-line.

That will dovetail nicely with superfast chargers. Charge your EV car in 5 minutes anyone?

[kambites]

Pistonheadsdicoverer said:

That will dovetail nicely with superfast chargers. Charge your EV car in 5 minutes anyone?

They're no use for this unless both cheap EVs can utilise that sort of charging speed and the electricity from them is sensibly priced, neither of which is likely to be the case in that sort of time-frame (if ever).

ETA: Plus, whilst the doom mongering "the grid will never be able to cope with EVs!" is largely hyperbole, it really wont cope if we try to charge a around half of all personal mileage at peak times. EVs only really work if the huge majority of charging is done when other electricity usage is low (ie at night). You'd need to not only install the ultra-fast chargers but also huge banks of batteries to smooth the grid load which would be stupendously expensive.

One way or another, we have about 5 years to get to the point where the vast majority of people can charge their cars without drawing from the grid during the day. Obviously that's perfectly doable but it's going to require someone, probably the government, to start spending quite a lot of money about now.

Edited by kambites on Friday 7th February 11:45

[Pistonheadsdicoverer]

kambites said:

They're no use for this unless both cheap EVs can utilise that sort of charging speed and the electricity from them is sensibly priced, neither of which is likely to be the case in that sort of time-frame (if ever).

ETA: Plus, whilst the doom mongering "the grid will never be able to cope with EVs!" is largely hyperbole, it really wont cope if we try to charge a around half of all personal mileage at peak times. EVs only really work if the huge majority of charging is done when other electricity usage is low (ie at night). You'd need to not only install the ultra-fast chargers but also huge banks of batteries to smooth the grid load which would be stupendously expensive.

One way or another, we have about 5 years to get to the point where the vast majority of people can charge their cars without drawing from the grid during the day. Obviously that's perfectly doable but it's going to require someone, probably the government, to start spending quite a lot of money about now.

Edited by kambites on Friday 7th February 11:45

I expect small nuclear reactors to come online by 2030. AI, after all, may have some good sides.

[kambites]

Pistonheadsdicoverer said:

I expect small nuclear reactors to come online by 2030. AI, after all, may have some good sides.

Ha! No chance that we'll see wide-spread of adoption of micro-reactors in the next five years. Even if it was technically feasible, which I suspect it is not, one mention of the word "nuclear" sends the nimbys into over-drive.