Office for Budget Responsibility
Discussion
Derek Smith said:
Is the OBR one of the Five Families or is it just another right-wing pressure group?
Derek you may have the wrong initials. We all know the OBS if a left wing government department who destroyed the policies of the great Liz, and the other guy, to restore Britain to its role as the leader of the free world.The CWF is a bit more interesting. It was leading group within the Tory party supporting Thatcher. It seems to have broken up until a relaunch was announced by Steven Baker in 2023. It currently does not seem to even have a list of members.
There are plenty of other economic forecasters, does anyone know of one that has been 100% correct over a long period?
Forecasting is little more than a best-guess using all the available data. However knowing what happened in the past offers no certainty to being correct in the future. Who could possibly guess what the economic impact of the pandemic and the consequential inflation was going to be?
The complainants have form and the ear of the Daily Mail and Telegraph, they just need to be ignored. The last paragraph is the only relevant one.
“An OBR spokesman said: 'Both our borrowing and GDP forecasts are more accurate than those previously produced by the Treasury.'
Forecasting is little more than a best-guess using all the available data. However knowing what happened in the past offers no certainty to being correct in the future. Who could possibly guess what the economic impact of the pandemic and the consequential inflation was going to be?
The complainants have form and the ear of the Daily Mail and Telegraph, they just need to be ignored. The last paragraph is the only relevant one.
“An OBR spokesman said: 'Both our borrowing and GDP forecasts are more accurate than those previously produced by the Treasury.'
Chrisgr31 said:
Is the £630 billion a cumulative figure - which I think it is. In which case it’s garbage as it ignores the reset every year.
Equally what was total government debt calculated by the same method over the same period. That would enable us to work out how inaccurate the figure is.
First time I've ever seen a cumulative figure for errors over many years against a figure which is an annual figure and reset each year.Equally what was total government debt calculated by the same method over the same period. That would enable us to work out how inaccurate the figure is.
It's statistically meaningless.
oyster said:
First time I've ever seen a cumulative figure for errors over many years against a figure which is an annual figure and reset each year.
It's statistically meaningless.
And the variable in the article equally so, when compared with the "concerns" of some posters. It's statistically meaningless.
In reality, the OBR is regularly reviewed by independent third parties and found accurate (for any relevant analysis)
There is a cohort of brexiteers who'd like to have the OBR discredited, as they forecast brexit to cost a fortune, and it's now [i]empirically[/b] shown to be so.
Hence the "omg, they got borrowing soooo wrong lol"
It's like castigating a mechanic for telling you your oil is low, when in reality there's plenty of air left in your tyres
M.
Chrisgr31 said:
Is the £630 billion a cumulative figure - which I think it is. In which case it’s garbage as it ignores the reset every year.
Equally what was total government debt calculated by the same method over the same period. That would enable us to work out how inaccurate the figure is.
I have not yet seen the report but based on a report on ConHome. It's cumulative differences. So if in year 1 you are -20 and in year 2 +20, the error is 40. It also includes the first period of Covid. Guess what the OBR did not forecast Covid.Equally what was total government debt calculated by the same method over the same period. That would enable us to work out how inaccurate the figure is.
Mortarboard said:
And the variable in the article equally so, when compared with the "concerns" of some posters.
In reality, the OBR is regularly reviewed by independent third parties and found accurate (for any relevant analysis)
There is a cohort of brexiteers who'd like to have the OBR discredited, as they forecast brexit to cost a fortune, and it's now [i]empirically[/b] shown to be so.
Hence the "omg, they got borrowing soooo wrong lol"
It's like castigating a mechanic for telling you your oil is low, when in reality there's plenty of air left in your tyres
M.
Brexit has nothing to do with it, They do a crap job.In reality, the OBR is regularly reviewed by independent third parties and found accurate (for any relevant analysis)
There is a cohort of brexiteers who'd like to have the OBR discredited, as they forecast brexit to cost a fortune, and it's now [i]empirically[/b] shown to be so.
Hence the "omg, they got borrowing soooo wrong lol"
It's like castigating a mechanic for telling you your oil is low, when in reality there's plenty of air left in your tyres
M.
Like every other government department really.
Mortarboard said:
Rufus Stone said:
Brexit has nothing to do with it, They do a crap job.
Like every other government department really.
Oh dear.Like every other government department really.
Their brexit 4% is proven. Soz.
M.
As an aside this was their inflation forecast made in November. They struggle to even forecast inflation to within 1% in the month they made the forecast.
OBR said:
CPI inflation is now expected to fall to 4.8 per cent in the final quarter of 2023.
Amusing you still believe a forecast they made 7 years ago. 
Oh and have you any more information gleamed from emails from the 'nice people at the OBR' as you did promise us some before Xmas.
Vanden Saab said:
Amusing you still believe a forecast they made 7 years ago.
Oh and have you any more information gleamed from emails from the 'nice people at the OBR' as you did promise us some before Xmas.
Yes, I included it in the brexit thread.Oh and have you any more information gleamed from emails from the 'nice people at the OBR' as you did promise us some before Xmas.
Brexit losses are confirmed, as mentioned.
You and the others were all offered to be cc'd on the emails.
M.
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