How long has the current Government got?
How long has the current Government got?
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Discussion

SLK55AMG

Original Poster:

4,318 posts

213 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
quotequote all
We have a few side bets in our house regarding what’s going to happen with the current Government and the IMF warnings to the Mini budget. The scenarios are

1, Liz Truss and Kwasi are correct and all will be well within 6 months
2, A vote of no confidence in the current Government and Liz steps down and we have a general election in the spring
3, We have a military coup and then a general election.

Personally I’m going for number 2, any more foreseeable options

Almost a 3. Coup by stealth

Edited by SLK55AMG on Monday 17th October 12:09

HarryW

15,822 posts

292 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yep

anonymous-user

77 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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4. The government blunders along from one mishap to the next with the opposition not really inspiring anyone either and then we have a GE in May 2024 and some kind of losers coalition replace them?

Vanden Saab

17,309 posts

97 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
This.

tangerine_sedge

6,154 posts

241 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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5. Liz realises that economics is slightly more difficult than she thinks and elects to spend more time with her family(*1) triggering a vote of no-confidence.


(*1) She's always had the look of a coked up rabbit caught in the headlights, so a breakdown is probably not far away

hyperblue

2,853 posts

203 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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Vanden Saab said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
This.
Thought it was 2024? Or have we got to endure another year of this shambles?

Edit - seems parliament term ends December 2024 and GE would be January 2025.

Rivenink

4,290 posts

129 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
This, kind of.

The Tories have the majority.

They won't want to do an internal leadership election again so soon.

They won't willingly vote against their own Government for a General Election.

We're stuck with Truss and co until they decide to call an Election, or they're forced to by law.

maz8062

3,707 posts

238 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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5. The mini budget doesn’t get through parliament and the chancellor has to make a humiliating climb down and resign shortly afterwards. Liz to remain in place until it all calms down.

BobToc

1,932 posts

140 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
The tail-end of 2024 in practice I suspect, but yes, agree overall.

anonymous-user

77 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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hyperblue said:
Vanden Saab said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
This.
Thought it was 2024? Or have we got to endure another year of this shambles?
Jan 2025 is the limit.

SLK55AMG

Original Poster:

4,318 posts

213 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
quotequote all
tangerine_sedge said:
5. Liz realises that economics is slightly more difficult than she thinks and elects to spend more time with her family(*1) triggering a vote of no-confidence.


(*1) She's always had the look of a coked up rabbit caught in the headlights, so a breakdown is probably not far away
Yes I like that one, hopefully.

pork911

7,365 posts

206 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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Boris back to steady the ship?

Zetec-S

6,611 posts

116 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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El stovey said:
4. The government blunders along from one mishap to the next with the opposition not really inspiring anyone either and then we have a GE in May 2024 and some kind of losers coalition replace them?
yes

Six Potter

5,987 posts

236 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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Truss seems to be learning in the job that maybe this prime ministering business is a bit harder than it looks? Blagger Boris made it all look so easy.

I think she'll make it through this current spot of bother, though due to the fact that she's now holding something of an economic poison chalice, she'll surely be toast at the ballot box come election time.

Brave Fart

6,501 posts

134 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
This is what I expect to happen. A GE in late 2024 or January 2025. Too far off to call the likely result yet, I think. Lots can happen before then.

Oilchange

9,577 posts

283 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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pork911 said:
Boris back to steady the ship?
Churchill did two separate terms didn't he? Not inconceivable

Collectingbrass

2,679 posts

218 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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5 - We can't have a vote of no confidence while the Royal Family are in mourning
- November statement / budget look we've listened really (markets tank, again)
- Look over there Boris is in front of the Parliamentary Standards committee
- Christmas, the lights stay on until after Paddington's, sorry, C3's message
- Ukraine kick Putin's arse back to Moscow "Now is not the time, there's a war on dontchya know"
- Easter
- Budget look we've listened really (markets tank, again)
- May by elections lead to the 1922 committee drowning in letters of no confidence
- Coronation "Now is not the time"
- Summer recess
- Winter of discontent
- Election in 2024

Six Potter

5,987 posts

236 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
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Brave Fart said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
This is what I expect to happen. A GE in late 2024 or January 2025. Too far off to call the likely result yet, I think. Lots can happen before then.
Agreed, and yes a lot can happen. Though high inflation, high interest rates and a recession are lseeming somewhat inevitable at this moment in time, never a good look politically. Even if they are not necessarily things of the goverments making, I don't think that really matters.

SLK55AMG

Original Poster:

4,318 posts

213 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
quotequote all
Six Potter said:
Truss seems to be learning in the job that maybe this prime ministering business is a bit harder than it looks? Blagger Boris made it all look so easy.

I think she'll make it through this current spot of bother, though due to the fact that she's now holding something of an economic poison chalice, she'll surely be toast at the ballot box come election time.
If this was France I’m sure there would be mass riots on the streets, it’s a shame we are a bit apathetic in the uk, we should get some fire back in the public

Brave Fart

6,501 posts

134 months

Wednesday 28th September 2022
quotequote all
Six Potter said:
Truss seems to be learning in the job that maybe this prime ministering business is a bit harder than it looks? Blagger Boris made it all look so easy.

I think she'll make it through this current spot of bother, though due to the fact that she's now holding something of an economic poison chalice, she'll surely be toast at the ballot box come election time.
I certainly agree with your first sentence - Truss is finding out the hard way what a difficult job being PM is. I'm surprised she hasn't got better advisors around her; for example, when the additional tax rate abolition was being discussed around the cabinet table, did no one pipe up and say "Err, PM, that would be massively unpopular with the electorate, and a political gift to our opponents"?

Perhaps they did. Perhaps Truss and Kwarteng just decided to do it anyway, along with the other stuff, and damn the consequences. Or perhaps she's made the same mistake as Boris and surrounded herself with sycophants who just nod approval to anything she says.

Either way, I imagine she didn't think her premiership would be quite as eventful in the first three weeks as it has been. The Tory conference in Birmingham could be equally eventful!