Head to Head Qualifying Gaps Between Team Mates...

[PhilAsia]

I found this quite interesting. I know my views on the disparities, but I would like to see what others think...

[HustleRussell]

Would like to see the working.

I was a bit surprised by the Bottas - Zhou gap. To my eye, Zhou has done relatively well for a rookie, and due to the performance of the Alfa Romeo has not been conspicuously propping up the grid.

Looking at the results it looks like the gaps may have been calculated on eventual and final qualifying times. The problem with this is that they are in many cases comparing lap times for drivers which were completed in different qualifying segments. For example, Zhou might've gone out in Q1 after two qualifying lap attempts whereas Bottas might've reached Q3, eventually completing six or more flyers and using as many set of tyres. Of course Bottas has comprehensively out-performed Zhou in this scenario, but the final qualifying lap times are not comparable- Bottas has benefitted from a lot of track evolution and many more attempts. Also, and probably most importantly, circuit conditions change between sessions.

ETA: Hopefully, the gaps have been calculated using only times from sessions where both drivers were able to complete a representative lap?

Edited by HustleRussell on Monday 6th June 16:49

[thegreenhell]

HustleRussell said:

I was a bit surprised by the Bottas - Zhou gap. To my eye, Zhou has done relatively well for a rookie, and due to the performance of the Alfa Romeo has not been conspicuously propping up the grid.

Have you not noticed how often Bottas has made it easily into Q3 when Zhou is usually out in Q1?

Anyway, I love stats so I've just done a quick back-of-envelope calculation of my own. Using only the last session in which both cars set a representative time, excluding the changeable wet session at Imola entirely which didn't provide representative times for anybody, adjusting for the occasions when one car didn't set any time at all, and subtracting Vettel's absence for Covid, I get this:

driver 1	ave. delta	driver 2
HAM	0.039	RUS
GAS	0.064	TSU
VER	0.082	PER
VET	0.204	STR
ALO	0.208	OCO
MAG	0.213	MSC
LEC	0.215	SAI
NOR	0.453	RIC
ALB	0.765	LAT
BOT	1.045	ZHO

Edited by thegreenhell on Monday 6th June 18:33

[Merry]

Certainly looks like Tsunoda has pulled his socks up this year. I hadn't realised he's outscored Gasly too.

[HustleRussell]

thegreenhell said:

HustleRussell said:

I was a bit surprised by the Bottas - Zhou gap. To my eye, Zhou has done relatively well for a rookie, and due to the performance of the Alfa Romeo has not been conspicuously propping up the grid.

Have you not noticed how often Bottas has made it easily into Q3 when Zhou is usually out in Q1?

Anyway, I love stats so I've just done a quick back-of-envelope calculation of my own. Using only the last session in which both cars set a representative time, excluding the changeable wet session at Imola entirely which didn't provide representative times for anybody, adjusting for the occasions when one car didn't set any time at all, and subtracting Vettel's absence for Covid, I get this:

driver 1	ave. delta	driver 2
HAM	0.039	RUS
GAS	0.064	TSU
VER	0.082	PER
VET	0.204	STR
ALO	0.208	OCO
MAG	0.213	MSC
LEC	0.215	SAI
NOR	0.453	RIC
ALB	0.765	LAT
BOT	1.045	ZHO

Yep, I talked about that in the body of my post.

Anyway I prefer your methodology- a different set of numbers from the OP’s graphic. Shows that the graphic is perhaps misleading?

ETA- but now, Hamilton faster than Russell and Perez so close to Verstappen doesn’t chime with what I would have expected having watched all the quallys…

Edited by HustleRussell on Monday 6th June 19:20

[Nova Gyna]

It's been a while since I've seen a stat that flatters Danny Ric. Nothing promising here either.

Almost a half-second slower than his younger, less experienced teammate.

Difficult times for the popular Aussie.

[thegreenhell]

HustleRussell said:

ETA- but now, Hamilton faster than Russell and Perez so close to Verstappen doesn’t chime with what I would have expected having watched all the quallys…

Yes, Perez is a surprise, but if you remove the wet'n'wild Imola result then he's only been more than 0.1 behind Max twice so far, and ahead once, so I think it's correct.

Hamilton and Russell are very close either way. Add Imola back and Russell would be slightly ahead again.

[dunc_sx]

Interesting stuff.

Edit: removed as I misread part of the explanation

I'm surprised Mick Schmacher is only 0.2s off Kmag btw

Dunc.

Edited by dunc_sx on Monday 6th June 20:16

[anonymous-user]

Merry said:

Certainly looks like Tsunoda has pulled his socks up this year. I hadn't realised he's outscored Gasly too.

Yes, I seriously think this is Gasly's last year at Alpha Tauri he has proved he can't cut it at Red Bull and he definitely isn't performing this year. I suspect if Helmut Marko has a Junior Driver who he wants to try instead then Gasly is gone.

[cgt2]

Joey Deacon said:

Yes, I seriously think this is Gasly's last year at Alpha Tauri he has proved he can't cut it at Red Bull and he definitely isn't performing this year. I suspect if Helmut Marko has a Junior Driver who he wants to try instead then Gasly is gone.

Did you miss Gasly's race in Monaco?

[HustleRussell]

Joey Deacon said:

Merry said:

Certainly looks like Tsunoda has pulled his socks up this year. I hadn't realised he's outscored Gasly too.

Yes, I seriously think this is Gasly's last year at Alpha Tauri he has proved he can't cut it at Red Bull and he definitely isn't performing this year. I suspect if Helmut Marko has a Junior Driver who he wants to try instead then Gasly is gone.

So fickle! Gasly has been performing at a very high level for AT year after year. He's smashed his TR / AT team mate every season of his career so far. He has had 2x DNFs compared to 1 for Tsunoda (one PU failure and punted off by Alonso in Miami). In races where both have finished it's 2:2.

The Alpha Tauri is not as good a car as it has been in recent years, and as Merry said, Tsunoda is starting to perform. Not a lot wrong with Gasly's performance.