F1 Budget cap predictions 2022

[Fundoreen]

Which teams will do best? What actually matters?
My perspective is the limited budget is plenty to pay the wages of all the people you need.
The more top people you have all working in the right way the more you can advance, and the top teams have these people already.
A poorly managed group will put in the hrs and cost the money but may not produce the best bang for the buck.
Bit like a local council or badly run nhs hospital.
Just throwing bodies into a short staffed team doesn't work although it seems the default uk solution.
To this end I would expect the order to be the same as this year after 4-5 races even if there are early promising performances from current lower placed teams.
It will all just cost less to put on the show. And it is a show not a sport.

[Megaflow]

I think Mercedes are going to surprise people. People assume that they have the most to loose and spent a lot of this year upgrading the 2021 car, but when you look more closely, the last proper update that will have used significant tunnel/CFD resource was back in July, which taking manufacturing time into account means they probably stopped all work on the 2021 car in May/June. Where as Red Bull brought a new rear wing to the Saudi race!

[kambites]

Mercedes always said their last component update would be in Silverstone and it seems that they stuck to that, just fine-tuning how they were using what they had after that. Of course they'll have less total CFD/wind tunnel time next year than anyone else since won the championship this year but I suspect they'll be as prepared as anyone.

The big question mark is Redbull. They were clearly working on this year's car deep into the season, but how much time and effort that took compared to next year's car is anyone's guess. My gut feeling is that, bar someone finding an obscure but powerful loophole in the regs, we'll see Mercedes and Redbull at or near the top again, possibly joined by one or two of the other teams. Really though, anything could happen and I doubt even the teams know where they're likely to stand until the cars get out of track together.

ETA: Assuming Hamilton hangs around, I also think Mercedes will have the overall strongest driver pairing on the grid, which will help.

Edited by kambites on Monday 20th December 20:54

[AlexIT]

kambites said:

ETA: Assuming Hamilton hangs around, I also think Mercedes will have the overall strongest driver pairing on the grid, which will help.

I imagine Red Bull -mainly due to Newey's experience- and Mercedes won't be far off the top. However if MB is not at top level, having a top duo might risk to backfire, as they will take points off each other. Whereas RB... well Perez won't be much of an issue for Max.

In a very balanced situation Wolff will have to manage his drivers before seeing someone else sailing away.

[StevieBee]

We rarely talk about Ferrari these days. They've sort of become the daytime TV of F1 - good production values, occasionally entertaining but generally background noise. But I wonder if this is a result of them applying more effort to the new car and regs?. There does seem to be a bit of consistency and calm there compared to recent times so perhaps they've some quiet confidence of a 2022 renaissance.

[rdjohn]

By removing all the bargeboard paraphernalia, designing the car must come down to getting the fundamentals right.

The cost of attending each GP and competing is pretty much the same for every team, nobody is going to try a pitstop with 2-men at each corner.

I think that the cream teams will still rise, but I hope that Williams, Haas etc will be capable of producing cars that are much more competitive than of late..

[2fast748]

Turns out Mercedes didn't do all they were allowed to to this year's car:

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/revealed-why-mer...

Might suggest next years will be a missile...

[Flooble]

You are all assuming teams will abide by the budget cap.

For Red Bull, what's to say that they won't be allowed to spend what they like, because "it's, you know, one of those"

[rev-erend]

I'm pretty sure many and maybe all of the teams have been heavily spending in the last year or two on capital investments
big ticket items like new upgraded wind tunnels, loads of 3D printers etc, to beat the cap.

[HustleRussell]

(Cross-posted from the Silly Season thread yesterday)

I don't think Mercedes will take a step back as they seem to have managed to complete the season without significant developments. I think they were pretty much all done with new major parts by Silverstone. I think there's a good chance they'll build the best car for 2022.

Red Bull, on the other hand, had new front wings for Abu Dhabi. I have seen people predict that they will take a step back into the midfield as a result, but I just can't see it. I think they're still going to be in the top 3 teams.

In my opinion the surprises will come from the teams which are lower on the grid. I am hoping that everyone will gain on the front one or two- and there is a lot of mobility within that... Ferrari, Mclaren or Alpine could suddenly join the party at the front, Sauber or Aston Martin could IMO suddenly be the 4th or 5th best car etc etc.

I'm looking at Alpine and Aston Martin as teams which could take a leap. Both have historically worked at a high level within a budgetary constraint. It'll be interesting to see whether Alpine can deliver on their long-promised new regs performance, and if Aston Martin still have the magic and the culture to produce big results under angry dad Lawrence Stroll.

Edited by HustleRussell on Tuesday 21st December 12:40

[carl_w]

Mercedes will do well after the FIA agrees to turn a blind eye to them exceeding the budget cap in exchange for not protesting the result at Abu Dhabi

[Fundoreen]

If they are all on the same lap at the end thats progress.

[rdjohn]

2fast748 said:

Turns out Mercedes didn't do all they were allowed to to this year's car:

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/revealed-why-mer...

Might suggest next years will be a missile...

Current chief technical officer James Allison said: “There are some parts of the car that you can change token-free, for example the power unit, the cooling systems, the suspension and of course all of the aerodynamic surfaces.

Not sure how you draw that conclusion

[kambites]

Fundoreen said:

If they are all on the same lap at the end thats progress.

Very unlikely IMO. There has never, to my knowledge, been an example of a major change in the rules immediately closing the gaps between teams.

[EDLT]

StevieBee said:

We rarely talk about Ferrari these days. They've sort of become the daytime TV of F1 - good production values, occasionally entertaining but generally background noise. But I wonder if this is a result of them applying more effort to the new car and regs?. There does seem to be a bit of consistency and calm there compared to recent times so perhaps they've some quiet confidence of a 2022 renaissance.

Ferrari are sharing engineers with Haas, last time that happened Ferrari's performance started to improve.

[konark]

Fundoreen said:

If they are all on the same lap at the end thats progress.

I'm sure masi will make sure they are, at least some of them.

[Fundoreen]

Its amazing what ferrari manage being outside the uk F1 community.
When they sometimes get it right they have the advantage of not being part of the uk F1 community.
Then someone starts photocopying their stuff...