Every prediction has been wrong. All of em.

[Thankyou4calling]

Corona related but also in general.

“Experts” love a prediction. The pandemic has highlighted them and there’s been no shortage of people all highly paid and respected who predicted what would happen.

Death tolls
Economic meltdown
Mass unemployment
Collapse of economy
House price crash
People starving
Food shortages
Rioting
Increase in suicides
Rising interest rates
Inflation through the roof

Plenty of others too.

I’m guilty myself but don’t profess to be an expert.

But on every count they’ve been wrong.

Is the world more random than we think? Should we stop listening to Experts?

[Rufus Stone]

I was disappointed the world didn't end in 2012.

[Ivan stewart]

Yes ! These charlatans feed off the human need for certainty and the need to worry about what’s going to happen next ,
See also when it was nuclear inhalation we were facing and it’s modern replacement climate change !!

[grumbledoak]

I think you have misunderstood the purpose of all these experts and their predictions.

[xstian]

Some of those things have/are happening. We're also not through this yet and a lot of outcomes don't instantly happen. Maybe you need to wait a few years before you can really tell what the fallout is.

[greygoose]

Ivan stewart said:

Yes ! These charlatans feed off the human need for certainty and the need to worry about what’s going to happen next ,
See also when it was nuclear inhalation we were facing and it’s modern replacement climate change !!

I am not sure what nuclear inhalation is, but it sounds unwise.

[roger.mellie]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Of course in some cases the act of making the prediction allows action to be taken to prevent it from happening.

Edited by roger.mellie on Friday 5th November 07:00

[Vanden Saab]

greygoose said:

Ivan stewart said:

Yes ! These charlatans feed off the human need for certainty and the need to worry about what’s going to happen next ,
See also when it was nuclear inhalation we were facing and it’s modern replacement climate change !!

I am not sure what nuclear inhalation is, but it sounds unwise.

I was checking twitter for details as I no longer get the same buzz that I used to from the glue

[Supercilious Sid]

Wasn't oil supposed to run out in the mid 80s?

[CoolHands]

You forgot the weather. Biggest racket going the amount of money we waste on the met office and all the people that work in that area. They actually seem to think they can really input every variable and predict the weather.

[Ian Geary]

I remember reading an article saying that the weather isn't caused by "the weather", so stop looking at it to guess what will happen

(The counter theory being solar activity)

Having said that, met forecasts are generally pretty good in the short term I think.

[Piersman2]

For quite some time now I've instantly dismissed any article that includes the words "could, should, would" in the headline, never anything more than clickbait or scaremongering with the worse case outcomes used as predicted 'fact'.

[Ian Geary]

Plus, you've got to remember the predictions listed only cover one half of the spectrum:

Death tolls. ---> it's a fake, there's no excess deaths at all

Economic meltdown ---> we can build back better an people become more productive as they get work/life balance back

Mass unemployment ---> shortage of jobs

House price crash. ---> house price runaway inflation

Ok, I can't think of corollaries for the rest, but you get the general idea. For every "expert" making a prediction one way, another one will counter it. It's probably best to take an average, than look for each prediction to be true.

They're probably just trying to sell a book, or get a research grant.


You missed one prediction though: the government doing a u turn on something the minute "social media" gets involved. It's a dead cert.

We should just scrap HM opposition, and pay for a meme generator and a bunch of students on twitter. They would do a more effective job.

[Evanivitch]

Which predictions?

Nearly every prediction I've seen shared widely in the media has either been:

- the low confidence prediction, ignoring the medium and high confidence predictions
- the "do nothing" prediction, when in fact we've nearly always been doing "something" to manage the infection rate

[TRIUMPHBULLET]

The word 'expert' is one of the most abused in the dictionary.
Real world experts are rarely in the media as they are too busy in the field they work to waste time, many of the so called 'experts' we see in the media are usually attention seeking trolls with little credibility who will do anything to look clever.
The media exploit them to drive whatever agenda suits them on that day, sadly the public seem to believe a lot of the the rubbish spoken.

[MikeM6]

Ivan stewart said:

Yes ! These charlatans feed off the human need for certainty and the need to worry about what’s going to happen next ,
See also when it was nuclear inhalation we were facing and it’s modern replacement climate change !!

Exactly like all religions in that respect, although climate change is clearly not a replacement for nuclear annihilation though. Two very real threats that we hope are both averted before it becomes out undoing. Which leads me to this excellent point ..

Evanivitch said:

Which predictions?

Nearly every prediction I've seen shared widely in the media has either been:

- the low confidence prediction, ignoring the medium and high confidence predictions
- the "do nothing" prediction, when in fact we've nearly always been doing "something" to manage the infection rate

If we had done nothing, those predictions may have turned out very differently.

[roger.mellie]

TRIUMPHBULLET said:

The word 'expert' is one of the most abused in the dictionary.
Real world experts are rarely in the media as they are too busy in the field they work to waste time, many of the so called 'experts' we see in the media are usually attention seeking trolls with little credibility who will do anything to look clever.
The media exploit them to drive whatever agenda suits them on that day, sadly the public seem to believe a lot of the the rubbish spoken.

I’d say it’s more a case of the media often being the ones that dumb down or over sensationalise. There are a few paid mouths for every subject and they’re often advocates rather than experts but it’s not the case that every go to doesn’t know what they’re talking about or that they’re always wrong. TBH “they’re all the same” or “they’re always wrong” is an attitude I don’t like and some of those that like to make that accusation should realise that they’re transparently guilty of the misinformation spreading that they’re accusing others of.

[Gargamel]

Growing up in the 80’s we were regularly told that Acid Rain would melt everything by 2020, Skiing would no longer be possible and that most Nordic trees would be dead.

It was also predicted by Blue Peter that I’d have a jet pack by now…

[thewarlock]

Gargamel said:

Growing up in the 80’s we were regularly told that Acid Rain would melt everything by 2020, Skiing would no longer be possible and that most Nordic trees would be dead.

It was also predicted by Blue Peter that I’d have a jet pack by now…

I remember being taught about acid rain in school in the late 80's/early 90's.

I was also led to believe that the Bermuda triangle, and quicksand, were going to be much bigger issues in life than they've actually been.

[mac96]

Just because something bad does not happen (eg nuclear war between Russia and Nato) it does not mean that the probability of it happening was not dangerously high and that steps needed to be taken to reduce that probability, as happened with that risk of nuclear war.


And of course the media love bad news, so they rarely explain about probability.