"Red Bull the fastest car of 2021" debunked

"Red Bull the fastest car of 2021" debunked

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TobyTR

Original Poster:

1,068 posts

152 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
As the title states. On-and-off throughout this year I've been calculating stats comparing the data between Mercedes and Red Bull in the Max Verstappen thread, as I haven't bought the (false) narrative being pushed that Red Bull has the faster car.

Throughout this year it has been wafer-thin between the two, arguably the closest title fight since the awesome championship battle between M.Schumacher and Mika Hakkinen. So here's the data up-to-date as of completion of Istanbul/Turkish grand prix.

Qualifying performance comparisons year-to-date:

head-to-head
Max vs Lewis: 7 vs 9
Bottas vs Perez: 12 vs 4

average qualifying position across all race weekends:
Max: 3rd
Lewis: 2nd
Bottas: 4th
Perez: 7th

Races where both teammates finished on the podium:
Mercedes: 6
Red Bull: 2



It's still notable that Bottas is consistently out-performing Perez by quite a margin in both qualifying and the races... and it still appears Verstappen is squeezing every last drop of performance out of the Red Bull, while Perez - like previous Red Bull teammates over the last two seasons - has a harder time of dealing with a trickier car at the limit. It is what it is.

Looking forward to the rest of the season.

Teddy Lop

8,301 posts

73 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
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There are dozens of different metrics by which you can paint any picture you like; on a different thread right now is a graphic depicting that max has led more laps than every other driver combined.

Focussing on Perez vs. bottas though does seem a little absurd given their respective teams stances and utilisation of the "other" driver. I mean you can't even get a straight answer on exactly what Perez is driving relative to max.

Sandpit Steve

11,232 posts

80 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Teddy Lop said:
There are dozens of different metrics by which you can paint any picture you like; on a different thread right now is a graphic depicting that max has led more laps than every other driver combined.

Focussing on Perez vs. bottas though does seem a little absurd given their respective teams stances and utilisation of the "other" driver. I mean you can't even get a straight answer on exactly what Perez is driving relative to max.
The difference between Perez and Bottas is 42 points. That’s what happens when you deliver two cars that can be driven to the max.

RB’s problem in recent seasons, is that they can’t make a car that two people can drive, and can’t make enough parts to keep the two cars equal.

On it’s day and at a favourable circuit, MV’s Red Bull can be faster than LH’s Mercedes, but across the season and with both cars, the Mercedes is definitely the faster.

Piginapoke

4,955 posts

191 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Sandpit Steve said:
Teddy Lop said:
There are dozens of different metrics by which you can paint any picture you like; on a different thread right now is a graphic depicting that max has led more laps than every other driver combined.

Focussing on Perez vs. bottas though does seem a little absurd given their respective teams stances and utilisation of the "other" driver. I mean you can't even get a straight answer on exactly what Perez is driving relative to max.
The difference between Perez and Bottas is 42 points. That’s what happens when you deliver two cars that can be driven to the max.

RB’s problem in recent seasons, is that they can’t make a car that two people can drive, and can’t make enough parts to keep the two cars equal.

On it’s day and at a favourable circuit, MV’s Red Bull can be faster than LH’s Mercedes, but across the season and with both cars, the Mercedes is definitely the faster.
I think that RB had a small but clear car advantage up until Silverstone, but Mercedes' floor updates and the new tyre construction have given a small advantage back to Mercedes since then. Will be really interesting to see who is quickest at COTA.

WonkeyDonkey

2,398 posts

109 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
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On the whole they are very well matched, Mercedes maybe edging up but at Zandvoort a few weeks ago Max was almost toying with Lewis as the car was that much quicker round there.

TheDeuce

24,377 posts

72 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
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This is pointless... Clearly the cars are very closely matched, but how on earth do any such stats demonstrate which car is better than the other when it could be the drivers making the slim but all important difference.

It's entirely possible the least good car could set the most impressive stats through a season of it's driven more perfectly and supported by good/lucky strategy.

We'll never know which was truly best I'm terms of outright performance potential. It's too close toske such an observation.

Hungrymc

6,832 posts

143 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
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Piginapoke said:
I think that RB had a small but clear car advantage up until Silverstone, but Mercedes' floor updates and the new tyre construction have given a small advantage back to Mercedes since then. Will be really interesting to see who is quickest at COTA.
This is pretty much what I think I’ve seen. I’d add that it may have taken a round or two for Merc to understand and utilise the floor, so the real performance increase (and an advantage over RB) began to show a little after silverstone.

kambites

68,198 posts

227 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Lets just be thankful that the gap is small enough that it's even up for debate. smile

It's going to be an interesting end to the season.

TheDeuce

24,377 posts

72 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
kambites said:
Lets just be thankful that the gap is small enough that it's even up for debate. smile

It's going to be an interesting end to the season.
Indeed smile


Muzzer79

10,863 posts

193 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
TobyTR said:
As the title states. On-and-off throughout this year I've been calculating stats comparing the data between Mercedes and Red Bull in the Max Verstappen thread, as I haven't bought the (false) narrative being pushed that Red Bull has the faster car.

Throughout this year it has been wafer-thin between the two, arguably the closest title fight since the awesome championship battle between M.Schumacher and Mika Hakkinen. So here's the data up-to-date as of completion of Istanbul/Turkish grand prix.

Qualifying performance comparisons year-to-date:

head-to-head
Max vs Lewis: 7 vs 9
Bottas vs Perez: 12 vs 4

average qualifying position across all race weekends:
Max: 3rd
Lewis: 2nd
Bottas: 4th
Perez: 7th

Races where both teammates finished on the podium:
Mercedes: 6
Red Bull: 2



It's still notable that Bottas is consistently out-performing Perez by quite a margin in both qualifying and the races... and it still appears Verstappen is squeezing every last drop of performance out of the Red Bull, while Perez - like previous Red Bull teammates over the last two seasons - has a harder time of dealing with a trickier car at the limit. It is what it is.

Looking forward to the rest of the season.
These are not stats comparing the two cars. They are stats comparing drivers and cars.

Lewis could be out-performing the Mercedes. Perez could be under-performing.
Podium finishes are affected by reliability, strategy, incidents caused by other cars.

You can't compare car performance by just looking at Qualifying performance and podium finishes.

What's clear is that the cars are very, very close. When the performance is that close, we get into different tracks suiting each car - this has been notable this year in the Red Bull favouring certain circuits, like Monaco and Zandvoort and Mercedes favouring circuits like Turkey and Silverstone.

It reminds me a lot of 2007-2008 and the McLaren/Ferrari battle in those two years.

HustleRussell

25,146 posts

166 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Perez was new into the team at the beginning of the season, everybody else has several years' continuity. Perez is driving a car with a power unit which is entirely new to him and a chassis and aero philosophy which is about as far from what he is used to as is possible on the current grid. He had one and a half pre-season test days. Ask Ricciardo how hard it can be to get up to speed in a new car.

Also the second Red Bull has not necessarily been equal to Verstappen's car in the past.

OP sorry but you aren't debunking nothing with that analysis!

Edited by HustleRussell on Thursday 14th October 10:00

MustangGT

12,055 posts

286 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
Perez was new into the team at the beginning of the season, everybody else has several years' continuity. Perez is driving a car with a power unit which is entirely new to him and a chassis and aero philosophy which is about as far from what he is used to as is possible on the current grid. He had one and a half pre-season test days. Ask Ricciardo how hard it can be to get up to speed in a new car.

Also the second Red Bull has not necessarily been equal to Verstappen's car in the past.

OP sorry but you aren't debunking nothing with that analysis!

Edited by HustleRussell on Thursday 14th October 10:00
Fully agree, he also misses out, arguably the most important stat, number of wins:

Max = 7
Lewis = 5
Sergio = 1
Valterri = 1

RB = 8
Merc = 6

angrymoby

2,689 posts

184 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
OP sorry but you aren't debunking nothing with that analysis!
strange how the OP hasn't included the average quali difference between the lead RB16B & F1 W12 ...then again, neither would i if there a couple of instances where the RBR was a whopping 7/10's quicker (Bahrain & France)

he seems to have fell into the trap that a difficult to drive car isn't necessarily a slower car ...hence every 2nd RBR driver seems to struggle (which also means RBR have adopted the 'all the eggs in one basket' approach)

Edited by angrymoby on Thursday 14th October 10:34

MustangGT

12,055 posts

286 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
angrymoby said:
strange how the OP hasn't included the average quali difference between the lead RB16B & F1 W12 ...then again, neither would i if there a couple of instances where the RBR was a whopping 7/10's quicker (Bahrain & France)

he seems to have fell into the trap that a difficult to drive car isn't necessarily a slower car ...hence every 2nd RBR driver seems to struggle (which also means RBR have adopted the 'all the eggs in one basket' approach)

Edited by angrymoby on Thursday 14th October 10:34
Indeed, RB have always taken that approach.

Flooble

5,568 posts

106 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
We had the article the other day regarding how RB have built a very fast car but only if you are one of a handful of top drivers who can cope with it. Whereas Mercedes have built a more rounded car.

What would be really fun would be if there was a way to have a swapsies race with Max & Checo in the Merc and Hamilton and Bottas in the Red Bull (I know utterly impossible to so many reasons, but it would be fun)

We saw how Russell did when dropped into a Mercedes; wonder what he'd have done if dropped into a Red Bull (we have seen that a similar "junior team" driver on the Red Bull side generally doesn't have as easy a time as George)

Catatafish

1,422 posts

151 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
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Max has only had 11 career poles. 8 of them were in 2021!


Jasandjules

70,420 posts

235 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
TobyTR said:
As the title states. On-and-off throughout this year I've been calculating stats comparing the data between Mercedes and Red Bull in the Max Verstappen thread, as I haven't bought the (false) narrative being pushed that Red Bull has the faster car.
.
I am not certain you understand what is meant by Red Bull have the faster car given the metrics you rely upon to show they do not......

TobyTR

Original Poster:

1,068 posts

152 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Flooble said:
We had the article the other day regarding how RB have built a very fast car but only if you are one of a handful of top drivers who can cope with it. Whereas Mercedes have built a more rounded car.

What would be really fun would be if there was a way to have a swapsies race with Max & Checo in the Merc and Hamilton and Bottas in the Red Bull (I know utterly impossible to so many reasons, but it would be fun)

We saw how Russell did when dropped into a Mercedes; wonder what he'd have done if dropped into a Red Bull (we have seen that a similar "junior team" driver on the Red Bull side generally doesn't have as easy a time as George)
This.

I knew this would give the usual dim suspects a twist in their knickers because it doesn't suit their narrative biggrin

Ultimately no F1 driver wants a tricky car to drive, they want a more balanced car. And an F1 team ultimately wants a car that is more balanced for BOTH drivers because that's how they win Constructors Championship points which is where the $$$$$$$ is...

It is what it is. Feel free to provide as many stats as I have that refute this. You can start with the Constructors championship if you like wink

TobyTR

Original Poster:

1,068 posts

152 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Jasandjules said:
I am not certain you understand what is meant by Red Bull have the faster car given the metrics you rely upon to show they do not......
go for it.... I'll be waiting

TobyTR

Original Poster:

1,068 posts

152 months

Thursday 14th October 2021
quotequote all
Catatafish said:
Max has only had 11 career poles. 8 of them were in 2021!
because he's finally got a car that's capable of putting up a consistent WDC-contending fight, unlike the last 5 years...

How many poles has Bottas had this year and how many has Perez had?