"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

[Novexx]

I've got a bit of hard earned currently sitting in bank accounts & now find myself for the 2nd time in the last decade or so being mildly concerned about the safety of it. I had been looking at some traditional methods of investment recently, but now I'm not so sure.

So lets say that COVID-19 doesn't go away as planned, things get properly tough & banks or GBP start to fail - are any of the traditional investment methods safe from this?

Gold has always had a certain appeal as it's tangible, can be in my own possession & will always be worth something. But looking at some other threads it seems that the UK market & spread are poor, it also looks like it's perceived as a preppers only thing & may ultimately result in a loss.

Are there any real forms of bullet proof investments that are reasonably accessible - or am I just being a doomsday prepper?

Thanks.

[DoubleSix]

What are you targeting for returns? What is your term? How comfortable are you with losses?

Start with these questions.

If you’re just looking to protect your capital then leave it in the bank (under 85k) or pick something off the NS&I website.

Forget about gold unless you have a high tolerance for volatility.

Edited by DoubleSix on Wednesday 25th March 22:43

[Simpo Two]

Well, your bank account/s, if under £85K, are safe - albeit declining slowly by inflation.

I think 'safe investment' may be an oxymoron; but if there was a time to go safe, it was January, not now.




Then again, if Armageddon is on your radar and money is worthless and we end up in a dystopian zombie apocalypse, buy toilet rolls...

Edited by Simpo Two on Wednesday 25th March 22:47

[Vergis]

Do you think we can print all this money and not devalue the currency. Google Weimar republic.

Gold is the way to go

[CzechItOut]

Vergis said:

Do you think we can print all this money and not devalue the currency. Google Weimar republic.

Gold is the way to go

If that is the case, how come the Government has borrowed circa £50bn a year every year for the last decade, we've had £400bn in QE since 2008, untold amounts of private/corporate debt and yet inflation is around the long term average?

[egomeister]

CzechItOut said:

Vergis said:

Do you think we can print all this money and not devalue the currency. Google Weimar republic.

Gold is the way to go

If that is the case, how come the Government has borrowed circa £50bn a year every year for the last decade, we've had £400bn in QE since 2008, untold amounts of private/corporate debt and yet inflation is around the long term average?

How are you measuring inflation?

[CzechItOut]

Let's say this one for ease of discussion:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

[Behemoth]

Ah, that'll be the basket of goods that the govt carefully curates

Inflation exists in many more places than measurements of the price of bread and a gallon of petrol.

[Behemoth]

Vergis said:

Gold is the way to go

Gold refineries are shutting shop. They can't meet retail demand. That's where I'd start to wonder if paper gold (what an institution somewhere says you own on a spreadsheet) is the same as actually owning the real metal.

[Garibaldi_red]

CzechItOut said:

Let's say this one for ease of discussion:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

What is your baseline? What would inflation be if we had NOT had QE?

[jshell]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-10-09/China-and-Ru...

Russia and China were buying tonnes of the stuff last year, perhaps this year too. I've been buying, but physical as if things turn sour I don't want to be left holding a worthess piece of paper or a number in a crashed App...

I've bought Queen's Beasts 1oz coins which are face value £100 - so legal tender and ICGT exempt. They can sell for just over scrap value, but are limited edition and can go for £300 - £500 over scrap value due to rarity once discontinued.

https://www.bairdmint.com/products/1oz-uk-gold-que...

[egomeister]

Behemoth said:

Ah, that'll be the basket of goods that the govt carefully curates

Inflation exists in many more places than measurements of the price of bread and a gallon of petrol.

Exactly. USA based, but I was struck by this graph when I saw it a while back:



I think there has been a big disconnect between the things people really need, and many of the things that are considered in inflation statistics.

[egomeister]

Behemoth said:

Gold refineries are shutting shop. They can't meet retail demand. That's where I'd start to wonder if paper gold (what an institution somewhere says you own on a spreadsheet) is the same as actually owning the real metal.

There's paper gold and there's paper gold. Some are physcially backed, some merely a claim on the future value of gold. Ultimately the only way to be sure you own gold, is by owning gold.

[Behemoth]

egomeister said:

I think there has been a big disconnect between the things people really need, and many of the things that are considered in inflation statistics.

To a degree, yes, but I was thinking more of asset price inflation (stocks, property boom) and monetary inflation (printing trillions). All this happens with little to no increase in productivity. Monetary inflation via QE went straight into stock price inflation.

[CzechItOut]

Garibaldi_red said:

What is your baseline? What would inflation be if we had NOT had QE?

Similar to the 10 years previous to 2008?

[TCX]

Good luck getting hold of gold

[DoubleSix]

egomeister said:

Behemoth said:

Gold refineries are shutting shop. They can't meet retail demand. That's where I'd start to wonder if paper gold (what an institution somewhere says you own on a spreadsheet) is the same as actually owning the real metal.

There's paper gold and there's paper gold. Some are physcially backed, some merely a claim on the future value of gold. Ultimately the only way to be sure you own gold, is by owning gold.

I think if one is too worrisome to hold a physically-backed ETC as offered by global IMs such BlackRock then it's time to pack up and leave for orbit.

[egomeister]

DoubleSix said:

egomeister said:

Behemoth said:

Gold refineries are shutting shop. They can't meet retail demand. That's where I'd start to wonder if paper gold (what an institution somewhere says you own on a spreadsheet) is the same as actually owning the real metal.

There's paper gold and there's paper gold. Some are physcially backed, some merely a claim on the future value of gold. Ultimately the only way to be sure you own gold, is by owning gold.

I think if one is too worrisome to hold a physically-backed ETC as offered by global IMs such BlackRock then it's time to pack up and leave for orbit.

You are quite right. I can't remember the last time the ongoing viability of major financial institutions was ever in doubt.

[Nemophilist]

Disney?

[Behemoth]

They're having a great deal of trouble physically settling according to the FT today. Maybe they will turn into a paper market temporarily, citing force majeure or somesuch.