Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[devnull]

https://youtu.be/sD3nbWcb7VQ

Interesting insight and analysis from Bark and Jack, but the summary is that watch dealers, especially watch finder, are starting to ‘discount’ all of the sought-after models.

No skin off my nose, I bought my sub date for retail and intend to keep it forever, but I think a lot of people who bought at an inflated premium are about to be disappointed if they thought their money was 100% safe.

[MechMovement]

Watchfinder were always at the upper end of the "grey market" prices anyway, interesting move for sure but is it a sign of the overall watch market?

I believe once HK sorts itself out we will see a little more support at these prices, for sure though the dealer spread on the "hot" watches are getting smaller across Rolex and Patek. AP seems to be holding up well.

[Bobajobbob]

£ has recovered somewhat recently combined with HK issues, Brexit and trade wars. Surprised it didn’t happen sooner.

[andy tims]

Prices are still way over RRP for the popular SS Sports Rolex at the moment.

Let's see what happens, but I'm glad I didn't buy recently.

[Hoofy]

You mean you didn't buy the Rolex because you liked it and thought it was worth that price??

[andy tims]

Hoofy said:

You mean you didn't buy the Rolex because you liked it and thought it was worth that price??

I have, several times, just not in the last couple of years :-)

Asking prices on Chrono24 for ceramic bezel Daytona's don't seem to be dropping

[bonerp]

people need to stop supporting this overinflated market by not buying them at crazy prices.

[Hoofy]

bonerp said:

people need to stop supporting this overinflated market by not buying them at crazy prices.

Yep. Like with cars... or houses... it's down to the number of buyers.

[Fckitdriveon]

Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.

[Francois de La Rochefoucauld]

Fckitdriveon said:

Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.

Prime central London houses have been in decline since 2015, cars are following a similar pattern, watches will be next.

[So]

I am not sure if I am yet to be proved right, but I foresaw an end to the madness happening this year. Which is why I sold my modest holding of Rolex sports models prior to Christmas last year.

I figured strong market + Christmas = best price. Brexit uncertainty in 2019 = lower price.

If the decline in values continues it will be a rare accurate prediction on my part.

[richthebike]

Probably called that one about right.
The short supply led to fever. People are now seeing sense (in my view). The sports watches are nice tool watches, but they're not that special.
Lots of interesting stuff out there for Rolex RRP, never mind overs.

[Wills2]

Fckitdriveon said:

Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.

[Craigybaby69]

What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.

[Fckitdriveon]

Wills2 said:

Fckitdriveon said:

Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.

Or I m involved in the market daily and although it’s softened there’s no crash .

[carphotographer]

I missed out on buying a 16610LV for £8,500 this time last year and Watchmaster might only have one or two for sale at a time . They have eleven for sale, at silly prices all now discounted . Still way above the price last year though

[AllyM]

So said:

I am not sure if I am yet to be proved right, but I foresaw an end to the madness happening this year. Which is why I sold my modest holding of Rolex sports models prior to Christmas last year.

I figured strong market + Christmas = best price. Brexit uncertainty in 2019 = lower price.

If the decline in values continues it will be a rare accurate prediction on my part.

Given that all of the popular models are up significantly since last Xmas then I’d say your decision was ill judged. Never try to time a market, be it equities or watches.

Best just to keep watches for enjoyment.

[Brads67]

My AD called me up the other day after I ranted via email.

I have to say the tone was not what it had been regards waiting times, likelihood of getting a watch etc.

We'll see how it goes.

[abzmike]

Craigybaby69 said:

What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.

Yes, the sales figures don’t really tally with the perceived exclusivity. Rolex could make plenty more of the models that at sought after, and probably put up thier RRP at the same time, but somehow resist the temptation.

[GT03ROB]

Craigybaby69 said:

What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.

Since I started noticing watches, I do notice a fair few about. So they are not exactly exclusive.