Sweepstake: Guess the Labour majority

[simpo two]

I'm guessing a small swing to Conservative and a bigger one to the LibDems, so...

Labour majority: 75

[JagLover]

Sounds about right.

[john_p]

Sit on fence and agree maybe a little more, 80-100

[tinman0]

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/


not great weather today so labour could be in a bit more trouble.

i think the last week has done alot of damage to labour so i'm thinking majority of maybe 40.

[nonegreen]

hoping for 3 but will go for an optimistic 25

[Mon Ami Mate]

The last poll for voters guaranteed to vote showed a two point lead for the Conservatives!

Polls are a total waste of space - other than as a means of depressing opposing voters.

I do think Labour will win, although not with anything like a 75 seat majority, and I honestly believe there remains an outside chance of a hung parliament.

[Plotloss]

The Guardian reckon its going to be in excess of 130.

I see their usual aversion to facts is still going strong...

[M@H]

Hmmm..

60 ..or thereabouts.

[john_p]

Umm .. surely talk of a minimal Labour majority is optimistic at best?

Unless I've missed something, the majority of recent polls have gone between 35%-40% for Labour and 30-35% for the Tories.

Even the most optimistic poll would still mean a 100+ majority for Labour.

[Plotloss]

Yes but Polls (apart from the actual one) are about as reliable as an early 80's Yugo.

[ian d]

i have often wondered about polls, how do they do it? do they stand on a street corner of some urban city and ask the shoppers, those not working that day and the others who gander past...are you going to vote?, er, yes/no/##off. who are you going to vote for?...er, lab/lib/tory/nationalist/###off.

how reliable can they be?...depends on:
which urban jungle, which street corner, which bod is questioned as they merrily saunter past, carrying shopping, pushing pram, eating lunch sarnie, etc.

or is it a little more scientific?...we'll ask 100 railwaymen....answer 100 labour votes (that may not be true, only a very generalisation), ask 100 of the WI (womans institute, tony's favourite audiance) not many labour votes there.
only one poll matters and its today.

[wanty1974]

...and they always overestimate the labour lead by between 3 and 7% points... (historic fact, folks!)

[john_p]

Don't forget Labour can still win with a smaller share of the vote than the Tories..

I agree on opinion polls but even adjusting these compared to the last two election results indicates a Labour majority of 80-100 .. I put more faith in the bookies, they have more to lose if they get it wrong!

We shall see.

[JagLover]

ian d said:

i have often wondered about polls, how do they do it? do they stand on a street corner of some urban city and ask the shoppers, those not working that day and the others who gander past...are you going to vote?, er, yes/no/##off. who are you going to vote for?...er, lab/lib/tory/nationalist/###off. how reliable can they be?...depends on: which urban jungle, which street corner, which bod is questioned as they merrily saunter past, carrying shopping, pushing pram, eating lunch sarnie, etc. or is it a little more scientific?...we'll ask 100 railwaymen....answer 100 labour votes (that may not be true, only a very generalisation), ask 100 of the WI (womans institute, tony's favourite audiance) not many labour votes there. only one poll matters and its today.

For a serious poll they take a poll then adjust the results to reflect a British society.

Some pollsters also adjust for Labour bias (people not wanting to admit they vote Tory)

Personally I feel the polls have slightly overstated Labours support, and understated Tory-but given the structure of the electoral system, even a near dead heat would result in a clear Labour majority.

[puggit]

Mon Ami Mate said:

The last poll for voters guaranteed to vote showed a two point lead for the Conservatives! Polls are a total waste of space - other than as a means of depressing opposing voters. I do think Labour will win, although not with anything like a 75 seat majority, and I honestly believe there remains an outside chance of a hung parliament.

Seconded!

[Vee-X]

Mon Ami Mate said:

The last poll for voters guaranteed to vote showed a two point lead for the Conservatives! Polls are a total waste of space - other than as a means of depressing opposing voters. I do think Labour will win, although not with anything like a 75 seat majority, and I honestly believe there remains an outside chance of a hung parliament.

would be great to hang the parliament, nice high short amount of rope, let them dance on air.

[anonymous-user]

68

You heard it here first.

[simpo two]

john_p said:

Don't forget Labour can still win with a smaller share of the vote than the Tories...

How's that happening? Are they re-locating chavs and imported residents into marginal seats?

[Mon Ami Mate]

simpo two said:

john_p said: Don't forget Labour can still win with a smaller share of the vote than the Tories... How's that happening? Are they re-locating chavs and imported residents into marginal seats?

No, they've just moved the boundaries around. Average number of votes to install a Labour MP = 16,000. Average number of votes to install a Conservative MP = 22,000.

Mugabe would be proud...

[_VTEC_]

I know Labour will get in but I really don't want them to. I think it's time for some change.