Discussion
Sat on an economic update call the other day - verdict was a false dawn. Said US have gone to bed on an arguement and fiscal cliff may still happen, plus jitters on QE on both sides of the atlantic.
Also said they felt ECB has been rubbish and will continue to be so - sluggish growth in eurozone <0.5%. UK they said <1% dragged down by europe and possible issues with the AAA rating. Possible effect on all markets
The expect it all to fall back but US to be the best of the economies - said expect currency to drop back 5% if the FC gets sorted. Could be useful gains......
Bond market will go if equities take off....
Also said they felt ECB has been rubbish and will continue to be so - sluggish growth in eurozone <0.5%. UK they said <1% dragged down by europe and possible issues with the AAA rating. Possible effect on all markets
The expect it all to fall back but US to be the best of the economies - said expect currency to drop back 5% if the FC gets sorted. Could be useful gains......
Bond market will go if equities take off....
Skyedriver said:
At its top and ready for another dip? Or going to climb climb climb....
Too late to invest or get in quick...
Done both in a small way in the past, been lucky and had my fingers VERY badly burnt.
Do you expect anyone to be able to predict the market with an accuracy greater than chance?Too late to invest or get in quick...
Done both in a small way in the past, been lucky and had my fingers VERY badly burnt.
Scarey and confusing
Bonds with three or more years are suicide.
Bonds with less than two years are the same as cash.
Things could go along smoothly if the words Greece, Italy, Portugal and Obama stay off the front pages.
Then we could expect 8% market growth in the US, 6 in UK and maybe 2-4 for Europe.
But, one negative could cause a market correction followed by a slow crawl back to where we are now.
Another year like 2011.
I have positioned myself for a drop by opening a decent line of credit that I can tap into.
But I am hanging onto my commodities hoping for some cold weather before I sell.
Twas over 50F here today.
Just to throw in a joker, China has inflation worries, that means Emerging Markets could be in peril esp South America (just as Brazil was improving too)
Basically it's like driving with two slow punctures and only one spare.
Bonds with three or more years are suicide.
Bonds with less than two years are the same as cash.
Things could go along smoothly if the words Greece, Italy, Portugal and Obama stay off the front pages.
Then we could expect 8% market growth in the US, 6 in UK and maybe 2-4 for Europe.
But, one negative could cause a market correction followed by a slow crawl back to where we are now.
Another year like 2011.
I have positioned myself for a drop by opening a decent line of credit that I can tap into.
But I am hanging onto my commodities hoping for some cold weather before I sell.
Twas over 50F here today.
Just to throw in a joker, China has inflation worries, that means Emerging Markets could be in peril esp South America (just as Brazil was improving too)
Basically it's like driving with two slow punctures and only one spare.
jeff m2 said:
But, one negative could cause a market correction followed by a slow crawl back to where we are now.
Another year like 2011.
That's rather what my mind is thinking too. It's all going just too sweetly at the moment. I've jumped in at the top before and don't intend to get carried away again, however I have also made some good decisions.....Another year like 2011.
Currently looking at dividends rather than price increases but there seems to be some big risers out there....at the moment.
Past performance is no guide to future performance
Remember shares can go down as well as up....
Limited upside potential right now vs downside risk, in my view.
Europe hasn't improved, and US has postponed the Fiscal Cliff, not avoided it. UK is not really showing any catalysts for strong growth, and market is looking overbought.
I'm short FTSE, expecting it to fall back below 6000 in coming weeks.
Europe hasn't improved, and US has postponed the Fiscal Cliff, not avoided it. UK is not really showing any catalysts for strong growth, and market is looking overbought.
I'm short FTSE, expecting it to fall back below 6000 in coming weeks.
Interesting that there are two opposing views here. 6700+ v fall back below 6000
Which is exactly what is playing in my mind
Part of me says keep in/invest further, the other half says get out while you can
Leaving a little cash in reserve at the moment in readiness for a correction in the next couple of weeks.
Will I miss out or am I being realistically cautious, only time will tell.
Lloyds bank looks like its a skyrocket at the moment.
Which is exactly what is playing in my mind
Part of me says keep in/invest further, the other half says get out while you can
Leaving a little cash in reserve at the moment in readiness for a correction in the next couple of weeks.
Will I miss out or am I being realistically cautious, only time will tell.
Lloyds bank looks like its a skyrocket at the moment.
Skyedriver said:
Interesting that there are two opposing views here. 6700+ v fall back below 6000
Which is exactly what is playing in my mind.
I think you may have missed the respective timing of those views. They are not opposing. Which is exactly what is playing in my mind.
I and others have said that I expect the FTSE to fall in the next few weeks.
Marky1 and others suggest the FTSE will rise by end of 2013.
It is possible that both views will be correct, with potentially (at least) two profitable trades between now and December.
Last week, the S&P 500 came within 1% of reprising a syndrome that we’ve characterized as a Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest, featuring a Shiller P/E over 18 (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings), the S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low and 8% above its 52-week smoothing, investment advisory bulls (Investors Intelligence) over 47% with bears below 27%, and Treasury bond yields higher than 6 months earlier. This combination is one of numerous and nearly equivalent ways of defining an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields” syndrome. While there are certainly numerous conditions that are informative about stock market returns, and capture a much broader set of negative market outcomes, I don’t know of any other syndrome of market conditions – however defined – that has been so consistently hostile for stocks over the past century.
http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130114.htm
http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130114.htm
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