Road Deaths UP, Average speeds Down - Correlation??
Discussion
Deaths in 20mph zones up 24%.
Overall deaths up 3% this year.
Cars are getting safer - both primary safety (stopping your bad driving causing a crash in the frist place) and secondary safety (saving your bacon when you run out of luck or skill and hit something) are both steadily increasing - even if technology was static, older cars continue to get scrapped and newer safer one bought, so the net safety of the average car is going up year on year.
So on this alone, you'd expect a consistent drop in death rates, other things being equal. So any rise must mean even worse driving than it suggests.
But no one on PH can have failed to notice that as fuel prices rise and the recession bites harder, average speeds are dropping like a stone.
I would suggest there is a correlation as "road safety" policies fix on speed as being the biggest cause of crashes, and drivers now impose their own low speed regime. It's inattention that causes crashes, and the DoT figures support that - 60-70% of crashes that get recorded as stats are caused primarily by inattention or failing to look. And what is likely to increase if you drive well below the optimum speed for a particular road and conditions? Your attention. And once bored, you think you can afford the mental energy for day dreaming, phoning, texting, whatever. Drive a little quicker and you should naturally focus harder on driving.
Overall deaths up 3% this year.
Cars are getting safer - both primary safety (stopping your bad driving causing a crash in the frist place) and secondary safety (saving your bacon when you run out of luck or skill and hit something) are both steadily increasing - even if technology was static, older cars continue to get scrapped and newer safer one bought, so the net safety of the average car is going up year on year.
So on this alone, you'd expect a consistent drop in death rates, other things being equal. So any rise must mean even worse driving than it suggests.
But no one on PH can have failed to notice that as fuel prices rise and the recession bites harder, average speeds are dropping like a stone.
I would suggest there is a correlation as "road safety" policies fix on speed as being the biggest cause of crashes, and drivers now impose their own low speed regime. It's inattention that causes crashes, and the DoT figures support that - 60-70% of crashes that get recorded as stats are caused primarily by inattention or failing to look. And what is likely to increase if you drive well below the optimum speed for a particular road and conditions? Your attention. And once bored, you think you can afford the mental energy for day dreaming, phoning, texting, whatever. Drive a little quicker and you should naturally focus harder on driving.
simoid said:
Deaths are up 24% in 20mph zones, is that because there are a lot more zones!?
Or more morons thinking they are invincible in a 20mph zone and walking across looking into the sky with loud music in their ears and instant social media in their hands! Kids running across the roads and too late to stop etc..how else can you explain lower avg speed zones having a higher death rate? The higher that number goes and the lower the speed - it points to unsafe pedestrians than 'killer' motorists.
You're right, lack of consideration for other road users and an a total ignorance of your surroundings are a bigger worry than speed imho.
I've been driving 23 years and I swear that standards have dropped massively in those years, how come? I can only see that its down to cars doing more of the driving for you and becoming safer and safer. As Jeremy Clarkson once said, want to make driving safer? stick a big spike in the middel of the steering wheel! - He's right too!
I've been driving 23 years and I swear that standards have dropped massively in those years, how come? I can only see that its down to cars doing more of the driving for you and becoming safer and safer. As Jeremy Clarkson once said, want to make driving safer? stick a big spike in the middel of the steering wheel! - He's right too!
bobbylondonuk said:
simoid said:
Deaths are up 24% in 20mph zones, is that because there are a lot more zones!?
Or more morons thinking they are invincible in a 20mph zone and walking across looking into the sky with loud music in their ears and instant social media in their hands! Kids running across the roads and too late to stop etc..how else can you explain lower avg speed zones having a higher death rate? The higher that number goes and the lower the speed - it points to unsafe pedestrians than 'killer' motorists.
Driving standards have dropped since I started around 30 years ago. Selfish, ignorant, impatient etc. The technology hasn't helped either, see the "xenon headlights should be banned" thread and think about the human eye's ability to see in near dark for example. The spike on the steering wheel, no seatbelts and no airbags would probably work. Try doing high speed on a motorbike vs in a modern luxury barge.
Bad winter this year; road deaths up. We're all doomed, doomed I tell ye.
For the sake of argument - road deaths up on last year; winter was worse last year.
That's the thing with statistics - select carefully and ignore the stuff that undermines what you're trying to say;) . Same with 'news' reporting as well; funny that.
As mentioned at the start of the thread, there are significantly more 20mph zones in the UK this year - most of Lancashire is a 20mph zone now! (Actually, most of Lancashire's residential streets are - or soon will be - 20mph zones, but the 'headline' got your attention
. Most of Lancashire is open land...)
If there were less 20mph zones last year, then one would expect more deaths in 20mph zones this year because there are more 20mph zones to be killed in, this year. Nothing significant about it, really, but selective reporting will put the fear of god up the 'trusting' * in UKplc2012 society
.
* That's NOT aimed at anyone in this thread
.
For the sake of argument - road deaths up on last year; winter was worse last year.
That's the thing with statistics - select carefully and ignore the stuff that undermines what you're trying to say;) . Same with 'news' reporting as well; funny that.
As mentioned at the start of the thread, there are significantly more 20mph zones in the UK this year - most of Lancashire is a 20mph zone now! (Actually, most of Lancashire's residential streets are - or soon will be - 20mph zones, but the 'headline' got your attention
. Most of Lancashire is open land...)If there were less 20mph zones last year, then one would expect more deaths in 20mph zones this year because there are more 20mph zones to be killed in, this year. Nothing significant about it, really, but selective reporting will put the fear of god up the 'trusting' * in UKplc2012 society
. * That's NOT aimed at anyone in this thread
.henrycrun said:
remember - A Correlation is not Causation.
Let me try
Cellphone use up - Road deaths up
Agree with both, although are you saying that phone use is not a causation just because of the correlation?Let me try
Cellphone use up - Road deaths up
I am pretty confident that accidents and death rates are up because of a general lack of attention by drivers caused by a range of factors, including phone use, sav nav use, complex radio controls, all manner of gadgets used in but not integrated into the car (iPods etc), together with a general lack of importance attached to the task of driving by society in general and the media in particular (talking to camera while driving in every "road safety" programme you ever watch).
As mentioned by another poster, the general lack of a perception of peril is also to blame.
What I also suspect is that the huge improvement in car primary and secondary safety year on year has been masking an underlying trend in bad driving habits going up. Now that safety benefits are leveling, the true effect of poorer driving standards is showing through.
Thirsty33 said:
As mentioned by another poster, the general lack of a perception of peril is also to blame.
What I also suspect is that the huge improvement in car primary and secondary safety year on year has been masking an underlying trend in bad driving habits going up. Now that safety benefits are leveling, the true effect of poorer driving standards is showing through.
Car safety improvementsWhat I also suspect is that the huge improvement in car primary and secondary safety year on year has been masking an underlying trend in bad driving habits going up. Now that safety benefits are leveling, the true effect of poorer driving standards is showing through.
driver training improvements
Think!
vs
speed limits lowered in too many places, drivers and pedestrians take less care
Road safety spend on general signage rather than specific accident site layouts
TV ads showing it's safe to be run over at lower speeds
The former was being offset by the latter. Is the latter now winning?
Edited by saaby93 on Wednesday 5th December 11:23
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