Investing in social housing

Investing in social housing

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Discussion

MiniPro3

Original Poster:

31 posts

20 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
So after a couple if emails and calls, I have had a couple of looks like legit companies offering returns of up to 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years, These are for tenants with social issues and are looked after by the company that leases the property.

What's the Catch ?? scratchchin

This is the Blurb :- readit

Introducing our latest launch xxdxxxx ,This is a fantastic investment opportunity that offers buyers guaranteed rental returns of 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years. All the stunning apartments provide ready-to-move-in living spaces that will suit those looking for spacious and well-appointed living with easy access to the centre of Manchester. The lease is FRI (full repair and insuring lease) so the provider will pay for all service charges, insurance, maintenance, etc. There are no voids, management charges, or ground rent to pay, so this is a true net figure for you the investor.


Financial Forecast
Purchase Price £182,000

Monthly Income £1,516.66


Annual Income £18,200


25 Year Income £467,294


The lease at xxxxxxxxxx includes annual CPI increases, and the graph below forecasts the impressive potential increase on annual rental income at the property, based on an average 2% rate of inflation per year. However, with inflation rising at record rates at the moment, there is a large scope for further CPI increases

This investment is linked to the Consumer Price Index which means as inflation rises, so does your income. This means your income is protected and will always move in line with the market. The last few years have seen CPI in the UK soar. In the 12 months to December 2022, CPI risen by a massive 9.3% in what was one of the highest CPI 12-month inflation since the National Statistics series began in January 1977.

Projection for 25 years – 2% increase Y.o.Y

visitinglondon

362 posts

196 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

If they can generate returns of 10%, why don’t they get financing for less than this (which they would do on those figures) and pocket the difference rather than giving you the opportunity to invest?

I wouldn’t go anywhere near this.

MiniPro3

Original Poster:

31 posts

20 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
visitinglondon said:
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

If they can generate returns of 10%, why don’t they get financing for less than this (which they would do on those figures) and pocket the difference rather than giving you the opportunity to invest?

I wouldn’t go anywhere near this.
My thoughts to, I have asked for a copy of the contract between the leasing Co and the landlord, Still waiting

Mont Blanc

1,422 posts

50 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
Social housing providers are often invested in by large pension funds such Scottish Widows, Legal & General etc. They are also invested in by others, from banks, wealthy individuals via private arrangements, and also by capital funds.

I'm not making comment on if the OP's offer is a good one or not, I am merely stating that money (often huge sums of money) being put into social housing to generate a return is not unusual.

The social housing providers use the money to develop more houses, and increase the standard of their stock, and therefore increase the value of the business.

It is not much different to investing in a large housebuilding company, for example.

Greshamst

2,206 posts

127 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
My only question is that if it’s all upside, with no downside, why are they selling the opportunity rather than investing in the opportunity?

My inkling is that there will be a downside that you will have to bare, that they haven’t highlighted.

MiniPro3

Original Poster:

31 posts

20 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
Greshamst said:
My only question is that if it’s all upside, with no downside, why are they selling the opportunity rather than investing in the opportunity?

My inkling is that there will be a downside that you will have to bare, that they haven’t highlighted.
Indeed why wouldn't the property developer sign the deal with the social housing leasing Co "Guaranteeing the returns" refinance and go again ?. There must be a downside to this or we would all do it!

Also forgot to add cash buyers only!!

Maybe Mortgage / Finance companies wont touch this ? Why?

MustangGT

12,295 posts

287 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
You are stating a purchase price of £182k and monthly rental of £1500+. That does not equate to social housing, I would expect maybe £4-500 in rent.

BoRED S2upid

20,348 posts

247 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
Greshamst said:
My only question is that if it’s all upside, with no downside, why are they selling the opportunity rather than investing in the opportunity?

My inkling is that there will be a downside that you will have to bare, that they haven’t highlighted.
Very hard to sell? So it might be guaranteed for 25 years but try and get out of the sale or get your initial investment back.

There were / are a lot of these in Liverpool but it’s student flats you can’t rent them to anyone else and try selling it.

MiniPro3

Original Poster:

31 posts

20 months

Thursday 21st September 2023
quotequote all
MustangGT said:
You are stating a purchase price of £182k and monthly rental of £1500+. That does not equate to social housing, I would expect maybe £4-500 in rent.
The Gov pays the rent as the tenants have special needs need looking after assisted living

LooneyTunes

7,586 posts

165 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
MiniPro3 said:
MustangGT said:
You are stating a purchase price of £182k and monthly rental of £1500+. That does not equate to social housing, I would expect maybe £4-500 in rent.
The Gov pays the rent as the tenants have special needs need looking after assisted living
Not to you it doesn’t.

You need to look really carefully at the ownership structure and who your counterparties are.

From what’s been written so far, you’d be investing in a property (or some sort of fund that owned the property) that was then leased on a long term basis to a company. That company then operates the property, collecting rent, managing it, etc.

Initial questions would include:
Would I actually own the property?
Who is the party that would lease it from me? (With obvious follow ons around track record, strength of covenant, etc)
Are they already contracted to deliver such services? If so, what are the terms of that/those contract(s)?
Is the above company the only party I can lease it to (both legally and practically)?
What happens if the above company fails to pay?
How do I liquidate my investment (and what are the costs associated with doing so)?
… and that’s really just the start.

There are some good opportunities out there in special needs/social accommodation but you need to think about why a developer would want to target retail money when there’s a lot of institutional interest. If it were all contracted for 25 years already there would be no problems raising the cash at scale.

StevieBee

13,579 posts

262 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
An important factor to consider is changes to future legislation surrounding this type of investment. It is highly likely that a future Labour government which leans towards a socialist agenda will have different opinions on such investments compared to a Conservative government which embraces a capitalist agenda.

DaveA8

681 posts

88 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
Who knows but the biggest risk is the quality of the organisation standing behind it. The crowd in Newcastle, High St group sucked loads of people in and on paper the whole scheme worked but it didn't and people lost their entire pensions.
If Blackrock or even L&G were offering this and GUARANTEEING ( this is critical) they would be offering well over double the 30yr US treasury which is about 4.3%.
Do you think us retail schmucks can get double what the biggest funds can without increased risk and based on these schemes the risks are wide and varied and require a lot of research, research that usually meets a dead end.
I would be very sceptical but dig a bit deeper.
The biggest red flag is the duration, just think how good it would be to have good returns, even returns and long term returns and never have to worry.
That's the Hook and it's well baited!

MustangGT

12,295 posts

287 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
MiniPro3 said:
MustangGT said:
You are stating a purchase price of £182k and monthly rental of £1500+. That does not equate to social housing, I would expect maybe £4-500 in rent.
The Gov pays the rent as the tenants have special needs need looking after assisted living
We are talking about social housing not assisted living. Social and affordable rents are lower than private. Most of the social and affordable rents are from housing associations that effectively took over from local councils when councils were forced to sell of their stock.

They will often receive a grant to help in the purchase/build of the properties, in return they guarantee the social or affordable housing mix and rent levels. Most are run as charities.

JQ

6,045 posts

186 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
MiniPro3 said:
So after a couple if emails and calls, I have had a couple of looks like legit companies offering returns of up to 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years, These are for tenants with social issues and are looked after by the company that leases the property.

What's the Catch ?? scratchchin

This is the Blurb :- readit

Introducing our latest launch xxdxxxx ,This is a fantastic investment opportunity that offers buyers guaranteed rental returns of 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years. All the stunning apartments provide ready-to-move-in living spaces that will suit those looking for spacious and well-appointed living with easy access to the centre of Manchester. The lease is FRI (full repair and insuring lease) so the provider will pay for all service charges, insurance, maintenance, etc. There are no voids, management charges, or ground rent to pay, so this is a true net figure for you the investor.


Financial Forecast
Purchase Price £182,000

Monthly Income £1,516.66


Annual Income £18,200


25 Year Income £467,294


The lease at xxxxxxxxxx includes annual CPI increases, and the graph below forecasts the impressive potential increase on annual rental income at the property, based on an average 2% rate of inflation per year. However, with inflation rising at record rates at the moment, there is a large scope for further CPI increases

This investment is linked to the Consumer Price Index which means as inflation rises, so does your income. This means your income is protected and will always move in line with the market. The last few years have seen CPI in the UK soar. In the 12 months to December 2022, CPI risen by a massive 9.3% in what was one of the highest CPI 12-month inflation since the National Statistics series began in January 1977.

Projection for 25 years – 2% increase Y.o.Y
You need the name of the company that will be signing the lease and guaranteeing the 25 years of gold plated income. It's definitely not the Government, and I'm going to guess that they don't have 20 years of audited accounts behind them showing good steady growth, strong profits and a great balance sheet. Far more likely to be a newco with no trading history that can be wound up once they've sold all the flats to mugs.

Secondly, get an independent valuation of the property on the assumption of Vacant Possession, again I'll bet it's not worth £182,000, more likely to be worth £100,000.

Honestly, I can't believe people are still falling for this stuff - 10% return on 25yrs CPI linked income, give your head a wobble.

MiniPro3

Original Poster:

31 posts

20 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
JQ said:
MiniPro3 said:
So after a couple if emails and calls, I have had a couple of looks like legit companies offering returns of up to 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years, These are for tenants with social issues and are looked after by the company that leases the property.

What's the Catch ?? scratchchin

This is the Blurb :- readit

Introducing our latest launch xxdxxxx ,This is a fantastic investment opportunity that offers buyers guaranteed rental returns of 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years. All the stunning apartments provide ready-to-move-in living spaces that will suit those looking for spacious and well-appointed living with easy access to the centre of Manchester. The lease is FRI (full repair and insuring lease) so the provider will pay for all service charges, insurance, maintenance, etc. There are no voids, management charges, or ground rent to pay, so this is a true net figure for you the investor.


Financial Forecast
Purchase Price £182,000

Monthly Income £1,516.66


Annual Income £18,200


25 Year Income £467,294


The lease at xxxxxxxxxx includes annual CPI increases, and the graph below forecasts the impressive potential increase on annual rental income at the property, based on an average 2% rate of inflation per year. However, with inflation rising at record rates at the moment, there is a large scope for further CPI increases

This investment is linked to the Consumer Price Index which means as inflation rises, so does your income. This means your income is protected and will always move in line with the market. The last few years have seen CPI in the UK soar. In the 12 months to December 2022, CPI risen by a massive 9.3% in what was one of the highest CPI 12-month inflation since the National Statistics series began in January 1977.

Projection for 25 years – 2% increase Y.o.Y
You need the name of the company that will be signing the lease and guaranteeing the 25 years of gold plated income. It's definitely not the Government, and I'm going to guess that they don't have 20 years of audited accounts behind them showing good steady growth, strong profits and a great balance sheet. Far more likely to be a newco with no trading history that can be wound up once they've sold all the flats to mugs.

Secondly, get an independent valuation of the property on the assumption of Vacant Possession, again I'll bet it's not worth £182,000, more likely to be worth £100,000.

Honestly, I can't believe people are still falling for this stuff - 10% return on 25yrs CPI linked income, give your head a wobble.
Quite! that's why I started this topic just to see what other experienced business minds thought, as quoted from the start I wanted to see what the catch was I had no intention of investing,

DaveA8

681 posts

88 months

Friday 22nd September 2023
quotequote all
Anyone considering the detail of the exact type of housing is missing the point, the scheme arranger probably wouldn’t know a madhouse from an outhouse let alone the minute details of social housing.
They’ll be in Dubai or Cyprus before the paint is dry on the show house

Paddymcc

1,011 posts

198 months

Saturday 23rd September 2023
quotequote all
This screams airport car park or self storage investment scams.

Simpo Two

87,086 posts

272 months

Sunday 24th September 2023
quotequote all
The idea that investors can make money out of 'social housing' strikes me as wrong. If investors can make money out it, then the housing could have been provided cheaper.

Furthermore...

'offering returns of up to 10% NET Guaranteed for 25 years'

Anything with 'up to' in it is bks. I could offer the same!

Gigamoons

17,955 posts

207 months

Sunday 24th September 2023
quotequote all
Put simply, when a fantastic deal offer comes from someone you don’t know, consider why all the people in the loop before you haven’t locked it down tight.