Bank run

Author
Discussion

M1AGM

Original Poster:

2,800 posts

39 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
quotequote all
Surprised to read this, inference is that there are problems across the banking sector again? Could there be a domino effect?

Silicon Valley Bank: Regulators take over as failure raises fears

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64915616

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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There's a thread in NPE about this that at the moment hasn't gone the usual way of NPE threads ...

cliffords

1,827 posts

30 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Banks operating in the UK now have strict rules on capital held and are stress tested with some regularity. It's a very different set up now , have no fear we are not starting that all over again.

Drl22

789 posts

72 months

Sunday 12th March 2023
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M1AGM said:
Surprised to read this, inference is that there are problems across the banking sector again? Could there be a domino effect?

Silicon Valley Bank: Regulators take over as failure raises fears

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64915616
Just no. There will be no contagion.

dvshannow

1,601 posts

143 months

Friday 17th March 2023
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That didn’t age well

cliffords

1,827 posts

30 months

Friday 17th March 2023
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It's down to lack of confidence and sentiment. Not business performance. Three weeks of not looking at my pension pot and then it will be ok again.

_-XXXX-_

10,341 posts

212 months

Friday 17th March 2023
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You do realise how a bank run works? Things are going to go pop. 2008..lol, that and some.

cliffords

1,827 posts

30 months

Friday 17th March 2023
quotequote all
_-XXXX-_ said:
You do realise how a bank run works? Things are going to go pop. 2008..lol, that and some.
I do know how it works. I worked in Banking for 39 years up until 11 months ago.
Banks don't work and are not set up anything like how they were in 2008 now.

Doofus

28,480 posts

180 months

Friday 17th March 2023
quotequote all
cliffords said:
_-XXXX-_ said:
You do realise how a bank run works? Things are going to go pop. 2008..lol, that and some.
I do know how it works. I worked in Banking for 39 years up until 11 months ago.
Banks don't work and are not set up anything like how they were in 2008 now.
Also, anyone who says "lol" is immediately rendered irrelevant.

dvshannow

1,601 posts

143 months

Friday 17th March 2023
quotequote all
It’s a tough one , was easy to dismiss SVB as a one off , they were an outlier among the smaller US banks that themselves were not subject to similar capital requirements that the eurozone enforced

That we are here with CS and a backdrop of high inflation and rates makes me less confident this will all have blown over in a few weeks

If they impair CS holdco this weekend all bets are off

Traffic

345 posts

37 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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The media are mainly to blame here, they are constantly talking down the economy and are total fear merchants. They need banning too when it comes to any economic views.

Flooble

5,571 posts

107 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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We'll know we are in trouble when Robert Peston is on TV every night again

ruggedscotty

5,798 posts

216 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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Flooble said:
We'll know we are in trouble when Robert Peston is on TV every night again
how would you cope if you saw Robert Peston and Kate Aide on the telly....together yikes Apocolypse incomming

M1AGM

Original Poster:

2,800 posts

39 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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It’ll be the same playbook as it always is with the banks, privatise the profits and nationalise the losses, too big to fail and all that…

grumbledoak

31,850 posts

240 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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Traffic said:
The media are mainly to blame here, they are constantly talking down the economy and are total fear merchants. They need banning too when it comes to any economic views.
If the only thing keeping a company/bank/economy up is blind, misplaced, faith then it's all a sham and it's only a matter of time until reality reasserts itself.

Reporting on this does not make the media "mainly to blame". Not reporting on it would be complicity.

We should probably mainly blame the useless and corrupt boards, and the weak and useless politicians who will bail them out at our expense.

_-XXXX-_

10,341 posts

212 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
quotequote all
cliffords said:
I do know how it works. I worked in Banking for 39 years up until 11 months ago.
Banks don't work and are not set up anything like how they were in 2008 now.
Time will tell.

Simpo Two

87,090 posts

272 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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grumbledoak said:
Traffic said:
The media are mainly to blame here, they are constantly talking down the economy and are total fear merchants. They need banning too when it comes to any economic views.
If the only thing keeping a company/bank/economy up is blind, misplaced, faith then it's all a sham and it's only a matter of time until reality reasserts itself.

Reporting on this does not make the media "mainly to blame". Not reporting on it would be complicity.
I'm not convinced. I think the media could destroy anything they wish if they put their mind to it by undermining public confidence and building mistrust. It's a good job they supported their own side in WW2. But now they are trained to find fault. By the law of averages half the news should be good. It never is.

67Dino

3,630 posts

112 months

Saturday 18th March 2023
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I think we do have a problem, but not for the general reason that the conspiracy types generally quote.

Those who are shocked that Banks don’t actually have all the money deposited sitting in a vault all the time don’t understand Banking. If they did do that, what would they lend (I know you can use wholesale markets but that’s expensive and has its own issues)? Plus, banks would earn savers and current account holdersnothing on the money we deposit, so we’d all have to pay to keep our money safe.

However, this is the first Bank run in the age of Social Media and widespread digital withdrawals. It happened faster than any previously ($47bn withdrawn in days), not helped by the fact that the savers were all tech savvy types, and the rumour mill went into overdrive (some VCs were already encouraging withdrawals weeks earlier).

So the current Capital Adequacy rules do need to be reviewed, and new safeguards introduced to slow/prevent runs on the Bank in future. What those look like I don’t know, but this definitely signals something needs to change. Just not because Banking is fundamentally flawed or Banks are weak, but because the environment has changed.


Edited by 67Dino on Saturday 18th March 10:19