GBP USD exchange rate

[fellatthefirst]

Is anyone else keeping a close eye on the current GBP to USD exchange rate? I’m buying from China and it’s been going down and down over the last few months and I received a worrying email from the NatWest FX team yesterday, mentioning that it would go to parity £1 for $1!! The email read as follows.

There are mounting risks that the GBP/USD exchange rate hits parity (1.00) or trades even lower.

Worries over the outlook for the UK economy saw the pound slide by about 5% against the USD in August 2022 (its biggest monthly fall since the Brexit referendum in 2016)
Currency options market now implies a greather than one-in-four chance of GBP/USD hitting parity over the next twelve months.

Currency technical analysis suggests that if GBP/USD closes below 1.1323 this quarter, then the next support area is around 0.9500.


Is there any good news out there at the moment??

[r3g]

"Is there any good news out there at the moment??"

It's good news if your investments are in dollars! I'm making a nice passive income on the side just from the exchange rate moving from 73p when I got in at the start of the year to the 86-87p it is today . Unfortunately, the reality is that any gains are instantly cancelled out from the UK end as everything is becoming significantly more expensive to buy here due to the ever-weakening pound. And that's just going to get even worse once the government credit card is used to pay for the energy price caps.

[Edible Roadkill]

Doesn’t mean much to me except we’ll likely not be going to Florida for holidays next year as has been discussed.

[_-XXXX-_]

Edible Roadkill said:

Doesn’t mean much to me except we’ll likely not be going to Florida for holidays next year as has been discussed.

It'll mean a bit more than that to you & everyone.Pretty much everything imported is traded in dollars. I get emails pretty much every week from suppliers saying their prices are going up due to freight/exchange rate.

The perfect st storm is upon us.

[Trustmeimadoctor]

Edible Roadkill said:

Doesn’t mean much to me except we’ll likely not be going to Florida for holidays next year as has been discussed.

Lucky I bought a bunch at 1.4

[cheeky_chops]

If i want to hedge and move £20k from uk business bank acc to USD can i do that?

Dont have a USD acc - Been paying supplier in USD thru a personal revolut. Accountant was fine, said just print off payment details, reconciliation etc. I guess if i sat £20k in USD in a personal revolut acc it would come under a director loan? Other option is make an advanced order and pay for whole of 2023....

[22s]

cheeky_chops said:

If i want to hedge and move £20k from uk business bank acc to USD can i do that?

Dont have a USD acc - Been paying supplier in USD thru a personal revolut. Accountant was fine, said just print off payment details, reconciliation etc. I guess if i sat £20k in USD in a personal revolut acc it would come under a director loan? Other option is make an advanced order and pay for whole of 2023....

Open a Revolut Business account. It's free and you get a dollar account with it. Transfer to that one.

[cheeky_chops]

22s said:

Open a Revolut Business account. It's free and you get a dollar account with it. Transfer to that one.

yes, we tried and were refused - business was quite new so will try again

[Simpo Two]

Well, we once considered adopted the Euro. Perhaps we should adopt the dollar...? (we could continue to call it a 'pound' over here for old times sake).

[DodgyGeezer]

fellatthefirst said:

Is there any good news out there at the moment??

surely the 'good news' is that it's not a sterling specific problem - the € is suffering against the $ in the same way (IIRC the $ always strengthens in a crisis being the global currency) and the €/£ rate is actually quite stable.

I do hope someone who knows what they're talking about puts me right in on this...

[skwdenyer]

fellatthefirst said:

Is anyone else keeping a close eye on the current GBP to USD exchange rate? I’m buying from China and it’s been going down and down over the last few months and I received a worrying email from the NatWest FX team yesterday, mentioning that it would go to parity £1 for $1!! The email read as follows.

There are mounting risks that the GBP/USD exchange rate hits parity (1.00) or trades even lower.

Worries over the outlook for the UK economy saw the pound slide by about 5% against the USD in August 2022 (its biggest monthly fall since the Brexit referendum in 2016)
Currency options market now implies a greather than one-in-four chance of GBP/USD hitting parity over the next twelve months.

Currency technical analysis suggests that if GBP/USD closes below 1.1323 this quarter, then the next support area is around 0.9500.


Is there any good news out there at the moment??

I watch it daily. I buy mostly in USD and sell mostly in GBP & EUR. Some months ago I was setting pricing for January '23 product; I mentioned on here that I was pricing GBP:EUR at 1.17 and GBP:USD at 1.27. In both cases, I was told I was being way too pessimistic. As it turns out, I think I was probably being way too optimistic, esp on the GBP:USD pair.

[mr_spock]

I sold my house in the Uk and left the money in GBP for a few reasons. Now I want it in USD and this has stuffed me. Luckily I’m not in a hurry.

[Joe M]

Any further insights into this? I get paid in dollars and looking for a good time to convert it over.

[Seventyseven7]

Joe M said:

Any further insights into this? I get paid in dollars and looking for a good time to convert it over.

I don’t think people can predict the currency markets. I have to move a few hundred thousand from GBP to AUD over the next few months and after speaking to multiple people no one seems to have solid advice on where the market will head.

[bad company]

Seventyseven7 said:

Joe M said:

Any further insights into this? I get paid in dollars and looking for a good time to convert it over.

I don’t think people can predict the currency markets. I have to move a few hundred thousand from GBP to AUD over the next few months and after speaking to multiple people no one seems to have solid advice on where the market will head.

There’s those that really don’t know. The rest of us at least know that we don’t know.

[Ean218]

Blimey, forex is just a game, no-one knows the answers to those questions otherwise there would be no market. If you need to xfr money then do it...