Is a Recession looming?
Discussion
Just reading the Evening Standard and apparantly there's a Recession on the horizon.
- Retail sales last month suffered the biggest fall since July 1992.
- Factory activity shrank for first time in 2 years.
- Economic outlook deteriorating fast.
My brother in law is a major textile manufacturer/wholesaler and says that trade in his industry is so slow that a recession is likeley.
What does everything else think?
Recession or just more scare-mongering from analysts?
- Retail sales last month suffered the biggest fall since July 1992.
- Factory activity shrank for first time in 2 years.
- Economic outlook deteriorating fast.
My brother in law is a major textile manufacturer/wholesaler and says that trade in his industry is so slow that a recession is likeley.
What does everything else think?
Recession or just more scare-mongering from analysts?
yep, its coming, and its gonna hit big...
mainly because Tony and Gordon have been 'cooking the books' for the last 8 months to keep interest rates low and the economy strong as that was their whole push for the election...
no matter who wins tomorrow - give it 6 months and we'll be in a recession!
mainly because Tony and Gordon have been 'cooking the books' for the last 8 months to keep interest rates low and the economy strong as that was their whole push for the election...
no matter who wins tomorrow - give it 6 months and we'll be in a recession!
I havn't been able to get proper work work (industrial design) for more than three years. Everybody (not so bad on PH) has been looking at me with disbelief when I've talked about recession.
When I left university, manufacturing was just coming out of recession. I don't know but I think it's cyclic. IT, Technology, Manufacturing and one end Retail, Financial services at the other. The more abstract industries, like financial services, seem to flow neatly into IT and industry.
If you ask me it's not about "are we in recession", it's "where is the recession". God only knows what happens if the whole lot goes into recession at once, but the loss of an entire sector can't help.
When I left university, manufacturing was just coming out of recession. I don't know but I think it's cyclic. IT, Technology, Manufacturing and one end Retail, Financial services at the other. The more abstract industries, like financial services, seem to flow neatly into IT and industry.
If you ask me it's not about "are we in recession", it's "where is the recession". God only knows what happens if the whole lot goes into recession at once, but the loss of an entire sector can't help.
The economy is a very fickle mistress. It seems to be entirely founded on confidence. When the confidence in it is low, house price reductions and weakening economies seem to be almost self-fulfilling.
It seems to have been propped up on the encouragement of consumer debt and on the fact that homeowners feel wealthy due to the appreciation of their houses.
With interest rates at their lowest for many years (credit, loans and mortgages) and the economy still stuttering, what more can you do to prod it into life?
A friend of mine used to be in engineering. He just cannot seem to find a decent job and he has flitted from one crappy job to another for the last 3-4 years.
Most people have run out of money - they just don't know it yet.
NB These are the opinions of the writer, who is a little squiffy on 1664.
It seems to have been propped up on the encouragement of consumer debt and on the fact that homeowners feel wealthy due to the appreciation of their houses.
With interest rates at their lowest for many years (credit, loans and mortgages) and the economy still stuttering, what more can you do to prod it into life?
A friend of mine used to be in engineering. He just cannot seem to find a decent job and he has flitted from one crappy job to another for the last 3-4 years.
Most people have run out of money - they just don't know it yet.
NB These are the opinions of the writer, who is a little squiffy on 1664.
rsvmilly said:
NB These are the opinions of the writer, who is a little squiffy on 1664.
in vino veritas. Confidence is everything coz investing borrowed money is economic dynamite... but it's a dangerous game, coz its easy to get over-extended and when the music stops ...
It is worth remebering that continental Europe and Japan have been in a slump for as long as any of us can remember, and the UK is exposed to foreign trade in a big, big way. That we have survived so long when half of our foreign trade partners are up to their necks in the economic brown stuff is little short of a miracle.
Through a bottle of wine I will say, Oi! Europe! Sort your farking lives out.
If you ask me, which you wouldn't as I'm a qualified nobody, this country has not come out of the last recession yet; we've simply had an unusually low interest rate scenario which has allowed everyone to borrow piles against their infinitely inflating house values and thus feel 'rich'.
Now that inflation and interest rates are creeping up the party is coming to a very abrupt end and the result of which will be enormous debts that will cripple many and petrify the remainder into closing their purses for some years.
As this country is great at nothing, I don't see what we can possibly sell to other nations in order to bring outside cash into this country. It just seems like it's the same old money going around and around.
Now that inflation and interest rates are creeping up the party is coming to a very abrupt end and the result of which will be enormous debts that will cripple many and petrify the remainder into closing their purses for some years.
As this country is great at nothing, I don't see what we can possibly sell to other nations in order to bring outside cash into this country. It just seems like it's the same old money going around and around.
Although something is clearly amiss, it is worth noting that government departments cannot make significant purchases 6 weeks before and 6 weeks after a general election.
The effect this has on the economy at the time cannot be underestimated.
We were due to have started a £150k project 3 weeks ago but this has now been deferred until late July.
So, we won't be spending money with many small suppliers for a while yet.
...and nor will they....and so it goes on.
I read the article in the Standard yesterday but it's worth noting that the paper has an agenda (as all papers do!)
The main difference now compared to the last recession is that there's a shed load more equity spilling around so technically, it is possible slip into a "slight" recession (if ever such a thing exists), without any sigtnificant, long-term problems.
I'm alos of the belief that it's possible to talk ourselves into recession. The more we believe there will be one, the more we accept it and the greater the chance of us all cutting back our spending which then.....creates a recession.
Just a thought!
The effect this has on the economy at the time cannot be underestimated.
We were due to have started a £150k project 3 weeks ago but this has now been deferred until late July.
So, we won't be spending money with many small suppliers for a while yet.
...and nor will they....and so it goes on.
I read the article in the Standard yesterday but it's worth noting that the paper has an agenda (as all papers do!)
The main difference now compared to the last recession is that there's a shed load more equity spilling around so technically, it is possible slip into a "slight" recession (if ever such a thing exists), without any sigtnificant, long-term problems.
I'm alos of the belief that it's possible to talk ourselves into recession. The more we believe there will be one, the more we accept it and the greater the chance of us all cutting back our spending which then.....creates a recession.
Just a thought!
RichardD said:
When do people reckon National Insurance will go up another 1%?
Next budget. Without a doubt. If NL get in again.
And various duties, possibly VAT.
The need for spending money, given their plans, will be totally overriding.
I imagine even if the Conservatives get in they will struggle to sort out the mess without raising taxes...or at least keeping them constant...for a while.
[quote=rsvmillythis would not be a good election for the Tories to win. They'll get the blame for the collapsing economy and lets face it, house prices can't go up much further.[/quote]
People also forget that at least half of their last term in office was spent sorting out the mess the previous Labour government got us into.....and all of the credit for their success in so doing was given to New Labour.
People also forget that at least half of their last term in office was spent sorting out the mess the previous Labour government got us into.....and all of the credit for their success in so doing was given to New Labour.
Really what we need is for the Tories to win and then hold a press conference.
At it they would say.."Holy
...have you seen the state of these books. Give us a minute and we will try and sort them out. The last bunch in here were a right bunch of :censored"
I for one would respect them for that.
At it they would say.."Holy
...have you seen the state of these books. Give us a minute and we will try and sort them out. The last bunch in here were a right bunch of :censored" I for one would respect them for that.
The odds of any politician, let alone that lying scaremongerer Howard, making an honest statement about what they had for lunch are slim. They're never going to admit 'the economy is in a state, it will take us a while to fix it'..
As for NL inheriting a strong economy from the outgoings Tories, give us a break. The only people who benefitted under the last admisnistration were those able to afford to get involved in management buoyouts of state owned assets at knockdown prices - I recall the MBO of a southern coast shipyard. Sold by Mr Major's lot for £180million or so. Bought back by government for over £500million. Nice work if you can get it!
Unfortunately, Labour is the best of a bad bunch. Maybe PH should put forward some of its more stellar members for the next election!
As for NL inheriting a strong economy from the outgoings Tories, give us a break. The only people who benefitted under the last admisnistration were those able to afford to get involved in management buoyouts of state owned assets at knockdown prices - I recall the MBO of a southern coast shipyard. Sold by Mr Major's lot for £180million or so. Bought back by government for over £500million. Nice work if you can get it!
Unfortunately, Labour is the best of a bad bunch. Maybe PH should put forward some of its more stellar members for the next election!
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