Gone very quiet
Discussion
I'm hoping so & working hard to mend thngs; In 20 years, this situation has only happened twice, last week we may have got away with, the first time, the guy told me to do one.
For me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
For me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
LuckyThirteen said:
Further compounding the crap news,
Client I have had for twenty years went under on Friday. Whilst he's taken me for somewhere around £8k (which hurts) I feel for more him.
He's gone from £1m/year to having put £60k of his own money and from what I gather £40k personal borrowing (and car) into the business.
Now it's gone.
For the benefit of the thread, he was high end (very) fitted furniture. A genuine quality product.
In his words 'what now, I'm 53, no qualifications, and declared bankrupt. I'm f#+ked'
That's pretty crap however he must have seen the writing on the wall, you don't go from £1m to injecting funds and bankruptcy in a week or two?Client I have had for twenty years went under on Friday. Whilst he's taken me for somewhere around £8k (which hurts) I feel for more him.
He's gone from £1m/year to having put £60k of his own money and from what I gather £40k personal borrowing (and car) into the business.
Now it's gone.
For the benefit of the thread, he was high end (very) fitted furniture. A genuine quality product.
In his words 'what now, I'm 53, no qualifications, and declared bankrupt. I'm f#+ked'
Forester1965 said:
Lots of businesses can be high T/O and low margin. A friend of mine used to talk of the £200m construction contracts they'd won when in reality their margin was between 1% and 2%. Doesn't take much to go wrong at those margins to work hard for nothing.
I fully understand that, my point was simply you would be fully aware it was going t1ts up long before you injected cash.That said, I doubt very much if high end furniture works on a low margin, you're paying for quality and craftsmanship, not a quick build housing estate.
No idea about this particular case, but you could easily be subbing for someone further up the chain. They go bounce and leave you holding a sudden and unexpected loss. You put your own money in for a few months whilst you try to find some new contracts and don't make it.
Opposite could be true, the frog slowly boils away, expecting things to turn up and they don't.
Opposite could be true, the frog slowly boils away, expecting things to turn up and they don't.
HoHoHo said:
That's pretty crap however he must have seen the writing on the wall, you don't go from £1m to injecting funds and bankruptcy in a week or two?
You're right. He, like me, knew the downturn was kicking in back end 2022. He considered it would be tough, but survivable.I've watched him for last 6-9 months. I could see just how hard he was fighting.
loafer123 said:
Tim Cognito said:
Dave_V6 said:
Must be quiet, I've had Google send me an ads email. I'd rather drink my own warm piss.
You'd rather drink warm piss than profitability advertise to new and existing customers? You must really like warm piss.22 year lows now, I'm done with this s
t & will try & get employment.Not going to be easy though.
Sheepshanks said:
LuckyThirteen said:
For the benefit of the thread, he was high end (very) fitted furniture. A genuine quality product.
Do you mean very high end, or very fitted?I thought very high end stuff - I suppose I'm thinking of cars - was supposed to be unaffected by downturns.
My personal barometer is I start worrying when the number of hypercars just keeps on growing. When times seem good at that level for so long, people forget it was't always that way. Funding is found, cars are developed; that all takes 5 years, just in time for the next downturn.
Often the same with commercial property. There seems to be a *lot* of empty newly-built, expensive stock around from my wanderings in London...
If the furniture maker in question is really "very high end for normal people" (as it were) then I'd imagine that's the expected sign of the economic pain reaching further and further up the income levels.
For further context,
Fitted a lot for developers and private clients in London.
The straw that broke the camels back was a £450k ish order for later this year being put on hold. The reason given was that the developer lost confidence in proceeding with the development.
A lot of work was refresh work where they'd refresh previous installs. Which could include modifying existing as per whatever the client decided they now wanted.
I'd always known he was niche.
His words were to the effect that all aspects of what they do; ain't no money being spent.
Fitted a lot for developers and private clients in London.
The straw that broke the camels back was a £450k ish order for later this year being put on hold. The reason given was that the developer lost confidence in proceeding with the development.
A lot of work was refresh work where they'd refresh previous installs. Which could include modifying existing as per whatever the client decided they now wanted.
I'd always known he was niche.
His words were to the effect that all aspects of what they do; ain't no money being spent.
skwdenyer said:
Often the same with commercial property. There seems to be a *lot* of empty newly-built, expensive stock around from my wanderings in London...
I don’t quite understand why, but new grade A offices in central London are at record low availability levels, so those empty newly built expensive buildings are let, but probably being fitted out.Secondary old stock is largely unlettable, however.
loafer123 said:
skwdenyer said:
Often the same with commercial property. There seems to be a *lot* of empty newly-built, expensive stock around from my wanderings in London...
I don’t quite understand why, but new grade A offices in central London are at record low availability levels, so those empty newly built expensive buildings are let, but probably being fitted out.Secondary old stock is largely unlettable, however.
There are still a lot of developments not let, some that seem to have been hanging around. That suggests a buyers' market.
Average Grade B West End rents seem off about 25% or more compared to pre-Covid. I'd say the same is true for the City Fringe, too.
Sheepshanks said:
LuckyThirteen said:
For the benefit of the thread, he was high end (very) fitted furniture. A genuine quality product.
Do you mean very high end, or very fitted?I thought very high end stuff - I suppose I'm thinking of cars - was supposed to be unaffected by downturns.
If the “posh house stuff” market is fluctuating that much I can understand why you might get caught out!
President Merkin said:
I'm hoping so & working hard to mend thngs; In 20 years, this situation has only happened twice, last week we may have got away with, the first time, the guy told me to do one.
For me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
IME of 30 years of shipping anything from a Jiffy bag of bolts and washers, through to one off chunks of 2-3 tonnes, the UK industry is a bit sFor me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
t. I say this as ‘the customer’ although, in truth, it’s my clients that are the ultimate customer.There’s almost zero real competition for stuff between a bog standard 25kg carton, and the bits that are a bit larger but not heavy enough for a pallet. Typically referred to IIRC as ‘ugly freight’. What competition there is focuses purely on price, not service.
Anyway, back to the thrust of the thread, as ever, both the BoE and the government demonstrated their utter lack of connection to the real economy as the news on the ‘surprise’ rise in unemployment hit the news this week. No s
t Sherlock.Came across an interesting article (but US based) on how the relaxation on antitrust issues over the last decade or so, plus difficulty on dealing with network issues (around antitrust) has led to many more ‘termites’ pushing up costs/ inflation. E.g Autodesk software for architects, or supply of industrial gasses, or LinkedIn.
After a gas supply merger (Linde & Praxair) their margins have gone from 10% to 27%. BOC is the UK brand. Their main competitor (Air Liquide) has increased prices (since the merger) by over 30% since 2020…
For my industry (aviation) there’s a company that’s being doing a roll up of smaller parts makers, then jacking up the spare part prices. They are parts that aren’t expensive enough for someone else to go through the pain of EASA/FAA/ OEM approvals, but it adds up. Something going from 50 quid to 80 quid, then 150 quid.
After a gas supply merger (Linde & Praxair) their margins have gone from 10% to 27%. BOC is the UK brand. Their main competitor (Air Liquide) has increased prices (since the merger) by over 30% since 2020…
For my industry (aviation) there’s a company that’s being doing a roll up of smaller parts makers, then jacking up the spare part prices. They are parts that aren’t expensive enough for someone else to go through the pain of EASA/FAA/ OEM approvals, but it adds up. Something going from 50 quid to 80 quid, then 150 quid.
crosseyedlion said:
It's pretty clear there's been a slow down - I'm getting a lot of follow up calls/emails from places I've bought from in the past 6 months...to the point of it being annoying.
We got quotes on some fencing in October last year, we actually ordered a different type from them. Anyway they chased me on the original quote last week….there not alone either, annoyingly my lads in the office are having to be very on top of leads too as they are all so important right now wisbech said:
Came across an interesting article (but US based) on how the relaxation on antitrust issues over the last decade or so, plus difficulty on dealing with network issues (around antitrust) has led to many more ‘termites’ pushing up costs/ inflation. E.g Autodesk software for architects
They’re all at it now.I could spend £500 pcm on subs for my software now but mostly manage with old versions on perpetual licenses (Photoshop and Illustrator CS6 for example)
Then I invest in new innovative software products with perpetual licenses also.
It’s quite easy for me to do this being a one man band, but big companies and even 20 person SMEs are likely tied into this setup of rising sub costs well beyond inflation.
The promise was always more updates, bug fixes, etc, but it’s slowly turned into stagnation again and competitors catching up quick.
But then, as you note, they’re just bought up and the entire market stagnates.
Some really top-end innovations have been completely nerfed by these big tech companies over the last 15 years.
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