Gone very quiet
Discussion
For further context,
Fitted a lot for developers and private clients in London.
The straw that broke the camels back was a £450k ish order for later this year being put on hold. The reason given was that the developer lost confidence in proceeding with the development.
A lot of work was refresh work where they'd refresh previous installs. Which could include modifying existing as per whatever the client decided they now wanted.
I'd always known he was niche.
His words were to the effect that all aspects of what they do; ain't no money being spent.
Fitted a lot for developers and private clients in London.
The straw that broke the camels back was a £450k ish order for later this year being put on hold. The reason given was that the developer lost confidence in proceeding with the development.
A lot of work was refresh work where they'd refresh previous installs. Which could include modifying existing as per whatever the client decided they now wanted.
I'd always known he was niche.
His words were to the effect that all aspects of what they do; ain't no money being spent.
skwdenyer said:
Often the same with commercial property. There seems to be a *lot* of empty newly-built, expensive stock around from my wanderings in London...
I don’t quite understand why, but new grade A offices in central London are at record low availability levels, so those empty newly built expensive buildings are let, but probably being fitted out.Secondary old stock is largely unlettable, however.
loafer123 said:
skwdenyer said:
Often the same with commercial property. There seems to be a *lot* of empty newly-built, expensive stock around from my wanderings in London...
I don’t quite understand why, but new grade A offices in central London are at record low availability levels, so those empty newly built expensive buildings are let, but probably being fitted out.Secondary old stock is largely unlettable, however.
There are still a lot of developments not let, some that seem to have been hanging around. That suggests a buyers' market.
Average Grade B West End rents seem off about 25% or more compared to pre-Covid. I'd say the same is true for the City Fringe, too.
Sheepshanks said:
LuckyThirteen said:
For the benefit of the thread, he was high end (very) fitted furniture. A genuine quality product.
Do you mean very high end, or very fitted?I thought very high end stuff - I suppose I'm thinking of cars - was supposed to be unaffected by downturns.
If the “posh house stuff” market is fluctuating that much I can understand why you might get caught out!
President Merkin said:
I'm hoping so & working hard to mend thngs; In 20 years, this situation has only happened twice, last week we may have got away with, the first time, the guy told me to do one.
For me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
IME of 30 years of shipping anything from a Jiffy bag of bolts and washers, through to one off chunks of 2-3 tonnes, the UK industry is a bit sFor me, the key is honesty, if something has had the worst possible outcome, then it's crucial to own it & tell the truth, if i were to be slippery, then I risk not only being found out but making a bad situation worse, vital to take the heat out of things if you can.
t. I say this as ‘the customer’ although, in truth, it’s my clients that are the ultimate customer.There’s almost zero real competition for stuff between a bog standard 25kg carton, and the bits that are a bit larger but not heavy enough for a pallet. Typically referred to IIRC as ‘ugly freight’. What competition there is focuses purely on price, not service.
Anyway, back to the thrust of the thread, as ever, both the BoE and the government demonstrated their utter lack of connection to the real economy as the news on the ‘surprise’ rise in unemployment hit the news this week. No s
t Sherlock.Came across an interesting article (but US based) on how the relaxation on antitrust issues over the last decade or so, plus difficulty on dealing with network issues (around antitrust) has led to many more ‘termites’ pushing up costs/ inflation. E.g Autodesk software for architects, or supply of industrial gasses, or LinkedIn.
After a gas supply merger (Linde & Praxair) their margins have gone from 10% to 27%. BOC is the UK brand. Their main competitor (Air Liquide) has increased prices (since the merger) by over 30% since 2020…
For my industry (aviation) there’s a company that’s being doing a roll up of smaller parts makers, then jacking up the spare part prices. They are parts that aren’t expensive enough for someone else to go through the pain of EASA/FAA/ OEM approvals, but it adds up. Something going from 50 quid to 80 quid, then 150 quid.
After a gas supply merger (Linde & Praxair) their margins have gone from 10% to 27%. BOC is the UK brand. Their main competitor (Air Liquide) has increased prices (since the merger) by over 30% since 2020…
For my industry (aviation) there’s a company that’s being doing a roll up of smaller parts makers, then jacking up the spare part prices. They are parts that aren’t expensive enough for someone else to go through the pain of EASA/FAA/ OEM approvals, but it adds up. Something going from 50 quid to 80 quid, then 150 quid.
crosseyedlion said:
It's pretty clear there's been a slow down - I'm getting a lot of follow up calls/emails from places I've bought from in the past 6 months...to the point of it being annoying.
We got quotes on some fencing in October last year, we actually ordered a different type from them. Anyway they chased me on the original quote last week….there not alone either, annoyingly my lads in the office are having to be very on top of leads too as they are all so important right now wisbech said:
Came across an interesting article (but US based) on how the relaxation on antitrust issues over the last decade or so, plus difficulty on dealing with network issues (around antitrust) has led to many more ‘termites’ pushing up costs/ inflation. E.g Autodesk software for architects
They’re all at it now.I could spend £500 pcm on subs for my software now but mostly manage with old versions on perpetual licenses (Photoshop and Illustrator CS6 for example)
Then I invest in new innovative software products with perpetual licenses also.
It’s quite easy for me to do this being a one man band, but big companies and even 20 person SMEs are likely tied into this setup of rising sub costs well beyond inflation.
The promise was always more updates, bug fixes, etc, but it’s slowly turned into stagnation again and competitors catching up quick.
But then, as you note, they’re just bought up and the entire market stagnates.
Some really top-end innovations have been completely nerfed by these big tech companies over the last 15 years.
Mr Whippy said:
All of them basically just software protectionists.
I’m sure half the innovative new s/w devs out there exist on the idea they’ll be gobbled up.
Which is pretty sad but appears to be the way of the business world for many.
The term “ultrapreneuring” was coined 30 odd years ago to describe the process of starting a business with the intention of a trade sale exit in 3 years or less. Not a new phenomenon.I’m sure half the innovative new s/w devs out there exist on the idea they’ll be gobbled up.
Which is pretty sad but appears to be the way of the business world for many.
Online gardening products here.
Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
I think from a global political POV relations between the West and China are only going to get worse. Current shipping woes might be a symptom of the ME or maybe other financial slowdowns, but the moment China invades Taiwan it's unlikely you'll be receiving many Chinese made gazebos (or much of anything Chinese made).
Personally I'd look to reduce exposure to China and perhaps to long-distance shipping more generally. A few years ago I used to work for a small business making bulky consumer products in Thailand and we moved production to Portugal to reduce volatility in shipping costs to our main market (the EU).
Personally I'd look to reduce exposure to China and perhaps to long-distance shipping more generally. A few years ago I used to work for a small business making bulky consumer products in Thailand and we moved production to Portugal to reduce volatility in shipping costs to our main market (the EU).
Forester1965 said:
I think from a global political POV relations between the West and China are only going to get worse. Current shipping woes might be a symptom of the ME or maybe other financial slowdowns, but the moment China invades Taiwan it's unlikely you'll be receiving many Chinese made gazebos (or much of anything Chinese made).
Personally I'd look to reduce exposure to China and perhaps to long-distance shipping more generally. A few years ago I used to work for a small business making bulky consumer products in Thailand and we moved production to Portugal to reduce volatility in shipping costs to our main market (the EU).
It's no small thing that the vast majority of Foxcon made Apple products heading to the West are no longer made in China. Okay, so they're still shipped from the Far East, but it is once very large chunk of shipping volume missing, from just one brand alone.Personally I'd look to reduce exposure to China and perhaps to long-distance shipping more generally. A few years ago I used to work for a small business making bulky consumer products in Thailand and we moved production to Portugal to reduce volatility in shipping costs to our main market (the EU).
Then you even have the likes of Chinese firms like BYD setting up factories outside of China.
GardeningEcomm said:
Online gardening products here.
Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
One of our clients is in first year online trading for gardening products. Pots, watering cans, grass seed, weed killer, compost etc etc.Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
Looks to me like the season is April - June for most of the products and after that it drops off a cliff. Considering how crap the weather was during that period I'm inclined to think this season is done for, even if we do have a late heatwave?
GardeningEcomm said:
Online gardening products here.
Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
I think the China shipping rates are going to be that way well into 2025 - Luckily in our industry we order in November for February delivery so just beat the price rises for this year, but next years stock is going to be expensive. Consumer demand worst in our 20 years of trading - no year has come close!
(tbf we were something of a start-up during the 2008 collapse so were not hit as hard in that recession)
We're hanging-on in there and have just launched our summer sale.
A heatwave was forecast from June 15th but it just hasn't materialised.
Just got to keep positive and keep trading through it.
Cost rises are insane - especially the current $8100 cost of container freight (China-UK).
(Previously $1800 or so)
We sell bulky goods so landed costs can be +25% due to this change.
Nobody seems to know how long this transport cost will be so elevated.
Mainstream Media doesn't seem to be highlighting this dramatic inflationary news yet?
Good luck to all you grafters out there.
After a stonking May, our sales have dropped right off. We'd expect to come into 80-100 orders on a Monday morning, today it was around 40 through our own websites. I've re-engaged Amazon to ensure the packing staff stay busy. I know I keep blaming the weather, but it's just not Swimming Pool weather is it?
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