Gone very quiet
Discussion
LaurasOtherHalf said:
Everyone I know is working as close to 7 days a week as they can (hard with home schooling hence why some lads are working weekends), everyone wants to make hay now as they're expecting after Easter it isn't going to be easy.
Yep, one of our contractors is doing 6 days a week, he says he's dead on his feet every night but is building up a good buffer for the future. I'm not altogether convinced of a future dip. Life is as bad as it can really get now and so as things open up confidence will improve and people will begin spending again...Also with more people at home it is inevitable that consumers focus on their homes and they are not likely to be flying back into offices any time soon.
I live in Canada and am on the boards of a three smaller companies in the tech sector ( less than $60m turnover). All are doing well and generating a fair amount of cash. I am also involved in a startup which will survive.
On a broader basis, the home renovation business is red hot. Am doing one and the big limiter is supplies.
Entertainment/restaurants/pubs/travel are all a disaster. Indoor dining has been banned almost entire year, and outdoor dining since October or so, though in BC and parts of the West is has opened somewhat. No prospect for months to come in most of the country.
Retail is quiet but on-line ordering is up 75%. House prices where I live up about 25% year over year, and did not take a dip when CV19 got real.
On a broader basis, the home renovation business is red hot. Am doing one and the big limiter is supplies.
Entertainment/restaurants/pubs/travel are all a disaster. Indoor dining has been banned almost entire year, and outdoor dining since October or so, though in BC and parts of the West is has opened somewhat. No prospect for months to come in most of the country.
Retail is quiet but on-line ordering is up 75%. House prices where I live up about 25% year over year, and did not take a dip when CV19 got real.
Frimley111R said:
Yep, one of our contractors is doing 6 days a week, he says he's dead on his feet every night but is building up a good buffer for the future. I'm not altogether convinced of a future dip. Life is as bad as it can really get now and so as things open up confidence will improve and people will begin spending again...
Also with more people at home it is inevitable that consumers focus on their homes and they are not likely to be flying back into offices any time soon.
My worry is that we are going to enter into a spiral unless the government gets the stimulus package right.Also with more people at home it is inevitable that consumers focus on their homes and they are not likely to be flying back into offices any time soon.
There are a few sectors doing well, but many of their customers are furloughed.
Many offices have decided they won't reopen on the same way as before
This will have a knock on effect for hospitality, shops and taxis etc in many city and town centres.
When we get a bit closer to the end of this furlough I'd have thought things will look a bit more grim.
700k people have left the London area. With similar numbers in the rest of the country. That's got to have an impact.
And how many people have had their credit score absolutely trashed? That's going to make a consumer led recovery much more difficult.
red_slr said:
Out of interest those reporting being really busy are you small businesses? Sole traders? Bigger business with dozens of people?
Are you upscaling to cope with demand or are you sticking with your existing staff?
Small Limited Company.Are you upscaling to cope with demand or are you sticking with your existing staff?
Currently 2 Directors + 3 Full Time Staff.
One Director out of the business due to home schooling needs.
I'm just re-writing our business plan with a view to identifying where the gaps in staffing are. Ideally i'd like to bring on another business between now and April.
Several business interests, both as Principal and adviser;
Ecommerce - we have recruited two additional staff in the last 6 months. Currently have EU sales on hold, but will restart at the end of the week, then looking at the next growth phase in the UK side
Housebuilding - mass market - delays due to difficulties with getting subbies on site - certainly no sign of people eager to work 6/7 days a week to catch up. Show home opening shortly, which will test whether the market is still OK
Housebuilding - high end - very high interest - two houses under offer at over £2m and just under £5m
Commercial Real Estate - lots of interest from new investors looking to deploy capital, but not much on the market
Hotels - lots of work on development/refurbishment preparing for a huge post-Covid bounce, particularly in MICE and weddings. Don't try and get married next year is my advice.
LaurasOtherHalf said:
Those jobs that have been booked in are still going ahead and after the backlog the new work is drying up. I'm battening down the hatches, once my next new build is water tight I'm going to plan on and do as much of it myself as I can.
Everyone I know is working as close to 7 days a week as they can (hard with home schooling hence why some lads are working weekends), everyone wants to make hay now as they're expecting after easter it isn't going to be easy.
Put it this way, I'm normally chasing my subbies, now they're ringing me to see when I'm starting.
This is probably routine, but seems a bit pointless if builders really are flat out - our current planning submission has resulted in a flurry of speculative letters from local builders. I have to say none of whom I've ever heard of.Everyone I know is working as close to 7 days a week as they can (hard with home schooling hence why some lads are working weekends), everyone wants to make hay now as they're expecting after easter it isn't going to be easy.
Put it this way, I'm normally chasing my subbies, now they're ringing me to see when I'm starting.
red_slr said:
Out of interest those reporting being really busy are you small businesses? Sole traders? Bigger business with dozens of people?
Are you upscaling to cope with demand or are you sticking with your existing staff?
One man band did the staff thing a few years back and have found it much more profitable and less stressful to do what I can on my own. Overheads are tiny and when its goes quiet this time I don't have to worry about other mouths to feed. Are you upscaling to cope with demand or are you sticking with your existing staff?
One of the things that kept me going through the early part of lockdown a year ago was the thought of all the business owners that do have staff and the pressure that must have been on them at that time it must have been unbearable.
The temptation at the moment would be to take people on and double or triple the size of the business but I'm pretty content where we are at the moment I think the balance is right I can pick and choose what I want to do work wise with no pressure. These days I would value that over making and extra few quid.
Cellar Tech here - with the Hospitality sector shut, Ive worked 5 days since Nov 1st and doubt I will be back to work before April at best.....
My firm is spending 200k/month to survive with very little income at all.....
My industry is getting hammered and I can see a huge drop coming that could take 2/3 years to bounce back.
We will more than likely be flat out doing rip outs from failed business, rather than installs into new ones, and thats just soul destroying to see, especially if you have aworking relationship with the landlord/owner..
My firm is spending 200k/month to survive with very little income at all.....
My industry is getting hammered and I can see a huge drop coming that could take 2/3 years to bounce back.
We will more than likely be flat out doing rip outs from failed business, rather than installs into new ones, and thats just soul destroying to see, especially if you have aworking relationship with the landlord/owner..
Not contributed here before, but I own a small business working in auto repair. March 2020 was terrible for us, with 80 - 90% of our income stopped. This continued up until August, and we spent most of our company reserves in buying assets. We are currently experiencing a huge growth in business as those assets are starting to generate income and business. To the extent that we have expanded out workforce by about 1/3 (from 3 to 4) 
But we are still busy, the new work is keeping us very busy, and our old work is starting to come back. I think we are going to be OK, and possibly in a better position at the end of this year, to the end of last.
I hope so, I could do with being paid at least something at some stage.
But we are still busy, the new work is keeping us very busy, and our old work is starting to come back. I think we are going to be OK, and possibly in a better position at the end of this year, to the end of last.
I hope so, I could do with being paid at least something at some stage.
DSLiverpool said:
I have hundreds of assorted businesses of all sizes and sectors in the club and with only a few exceptions they report a huge drop off.
It’ll come back but the end of furlough in sept is expected to be a big chicane.
Thanks mate. Good point re end furlough.It’ll come back but the end of furlough in sept is expected to be a big chicane.
Edited by DSLiverpool on Sunday 25th April 20:28
fesuvious said:
Can you both give an insight into the type of retail that is seeing a drop (products) please?
Books / media. It seems mostly across the board though, unless you’re giving tenners away for a fiver it seems all round a bit quiet. I wonder how shops/the high street is doing atm. IT b2b.
Still busy which we are grateful for. Our customer base is mainly professional services, logistics & distribution, transport.
We have some unfulfilled demand for software development/coding that I need to consider but am hesitant due to the threat of further lockdowns or restrictions stopping f2f meetings etc. Not keen on outsourcing. Frustrating.
Still busy which we are grateful for. Our customer base is mainly professional services, logistics & distribution, transport.
We have some unfulfilled demand for software development/coding that I need to consider but am hesitant due to the threat of further lockdowns or restrictions stopping f2f meetings etc. Not keen on outsourcing. Frustrating.
Jan and Feb were write offs for us. Very slow indeed.
March saw a massive uplift. Had a pretty good march, best we have had in years tbh.
Then April came along and the work dropped off quite quickly and never really got going again.
I think we are going to be c.50% down for April - which is really bad as we make our money in April, May and June. So a bad start to the season, and IME running a seasonal business for many years if you have a bad start you never recover so thats 2021 written off already.
On the logistics side we are still seeing supply chain issues, although perhaps slightly better the last couple of weeks. We are now running at c.90% stock now where as in March we were as low as 20-30% at one point and several lines were totally out of stock. Some good planning and a bit of luck and we are now full again.
The bottom line is I think we have a few big issues now.
1. Sites and contractors are slowly clearing the decks now and no new work coming in
2. People are more keen to spend their money in pubs and shops
3. Possibility of holidays - people are saving their money now
4. Furlough end date is slowing creeping up and I think people who are still on now their job is going to be gone
5. Housing market cooling and most sales that were kicked off in summer 2020 are now complete
6. Longer term financial disaster is a possibility over next few years
March saw a massive uplift. Had a pretty good march, best we have had in years tbh.
Then April came along and the work dropped off quite quickly and never really got going again.
I think we are going to be c.50% down for April - which is really bad as we make our money in April, May and June. So a bad start to the season, and IME running a seasonal business for many years if you have a bad start you never recover so thats 2021 written off already.
On the logistics side we are still seeing supply chain issues, although perhaps slightly better the last couple of weeks. We are now running at c.90% stock now where as in March we were as low as 20-30% at one point and several lines were totally out of stock. Some good planning and a bit of luck and we are now full again.
The bottom line is I think we have a few big issues now.
1. Sites and contractors are slowly clearing the decks now and no new work coming in
2. People are more keen to spend their money in pubs and shops
3. Possibility of holidays - people are saving their money now
4. Furlough end date is slowing creeping up and I think people who are still on now their job is going to be gone
5. Housing market cooling and most sales that were kicked off in summer 2020 are now complete
6. Longer term financial disaster is a possibility over next few years
Strategic Procurement and Supply Chain Consultancy, specialising in below the line costs aka indirects.
Finance Directors just aren’t back in the office yet, so can’t call them, and they don’t respond to email, Trying all methods under the sun to generate traction via Linked In. But what I really need is real world networking to start again. If we can talk to FD’s face to face they more often than not get exactly what we do and then bite our hands off to help.
Had a referral a few weeks ago, for example, usual arguments from the prospect as to why they wouldn’t need us, you can’t beat what we do, we’re very lean etc etc etc but they let us take a look at their mobile fleet as a demo of our working methodology. Their mobile renewal offer was £30 ish per connections for 150ish mobiles, I can currently get sub £7, but because we were just an untrusted voice on the end of a phone /zoom they didn’t want to ‘hear’ and decided to renew with the incumbent who were selling them a pack of lies i.e. loads of unused bolt-ons extra, way more data than they could ever use, unnecessary hardware and more combining to overcharging by over £75k over 2 years.
So until I can get in front of more Finance Directors and Managing Directors I’m just twiddling thumbs and servicing existing clients. Shout out for intros if anyone knows any.
Finance Directors just aren’t back in the office yet, so can’t call them, and they don’t respond to email, Trying all methods under the sun to generate traction via Linked In. But what I really need is real world networking to start again. If we can talk to FD’s face to face they more often than not get exactly what we do and then bite our hands off to help.
Had a referral a few weeks ago, for example, usual arguments from the prospect as to why they wouldn’t need us, you can’t beat what we do, we’re very lean etc etc etc but they let us take a look at their mobile fleet as a demo of our working methodology. Their mobile renewal offer was £30 ish per connections for 150ish mobiles, I can currently get sub £7, but because we were just an untrusted voice on the end of a phone /zoom they didn’t want to ‘hear’ and decided to renew with the incumbent who were selling them a pack of lies i.e. loads of unused bolt-ons extra, way more data than they could ever use, unnecessary hardware and more combining to overcharging by over £75k over 2 years.
So until I can get in front of more Finance Directors and Managing Directors I’m just twiddling thumbs and servicing existing clients. Shout out for intros if anyone knows any.
Gassing Station | Business | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff