Anyone got a crystal ball?
Discussion
I have carefully put together my little classic car collection over the last 20 years through hard work and (hopefully) a little luck. I have a terror of appreciation and I’m looking for some wisdom about three cars in my garage and the potential to withstand future depreciation from current values.
I am happy to cover the (sometimes expensive) running cost for these cars, But I am not really in a financial position to cover the cost of depreciation in addition to the servicing/repair costs. Are these three cars likely to be largely depreciation proof, or is there something that I am missing?
The cars are:
1. 1977 Maserati Merak SS
2. 1987 930 turbo RUF BTR 3.4 conversion (by RUF themselves)
3. Ferrari 456 6 speed manual
Clearly, it is impossible to accurately predict future price trends, however, there is an enormous amount of wisdom and experience on this forum and I would really appreciate the opportunity to tap into that knowledge.
I am happy to cover the (sometimes expensive) running cost for these cars, But I am not really in a financial position to cover the cost of depreciation in addition to the servicing/repair costs. Are these three cars likely to be largely depreciation proof, or is there something that I am missing?
The cars are:
1. 1977 Maserati Merak SS
2. 1987 930 turbo RUF BTR 3.4 conversion (by RUF themselves)
3. Ferrari 456 6 speed manual
Clearly, it is impossible to accurately predict future price trends, however, there is an enormous amount of wisdom and experience on this forum and I would really appreciate the opportunity to tap into that knowledge.
ferrariboi said:
I have carefully put together my little classic car collection over the last 20 years through hard work and (hopefully) a little luck. I have a terror of appreciation and I’m looking for some wisdom about three cars in my garage and the potential to withstand future depreciation from current values.
I am happy to cover the (sometimes expensive) running cost for these cars, But I am not really in a financial position to cover the cost of depreciation in addition to the servicing/repair costs. Are these three cars likely to be largely depreciation proof, or is there something that I am missing?
The cars are:
1. 1977 Maserati Merak SS
2. 1987 930 turbo RUF BTR 3.4 conversion (by RUF themselves)
3. Ferrari 456 6 speed manual
Clearly, it is impossible to accurately predict future price trends, however, there is an enormous amount of wisdom and experience on this forum and I would really appreciate the opportunity to tap into that knowledge.
Do you mean a terror of depreciation?I am happy to cover the (sometimes expensive) running cost for these cars, But I am not really in a financial position to cover the cost of depreciation in addition to the servicing/repair costs. Are these three cars likely to be largely depreciation proof, or is there something that I am missing?
The cars are:
1. 1977 Maserati Merak SS
2. 1987 930 turbo RUF BTR 3.4 conversion (by RUF themselves)
3. Ferrari 456 6 speed manual
Clearly, it is impossible to accurately predict future price trends, however, there is an enormous amount of wisdom and experience on this forum and I would really appreciate the opportunity to tap into that knowledge.
Nice collection.
ferrariboi said:
I have carefully put together my little classic car collection over the last 20 years ... But I am not really in a financial position to cover the cost of depreciation
I don't really understand this. The first part makes it sound as if the cars were bought quite some time ago, so presumably purchased quite a lot cheaper than their current values and owned outright.If so, the appreciation up to their current market value is unrealised gains, and I don't see how the possible loss of some of this could be 'unaffordable'.
For example, I've owned one of my cars for nine years, and it's worth 3-4 times what I bought it for (albeit still not a large amount). I don't lose sleep over the fact that it might go back down again, I didn't pay today's price, so if it does go down I haven't lost anything I had or needed.
The risk of them being worth less than the money you put into them (and need back out again) depends substantially on when you bought them, and thus at what price.
Anyway, assuming you bought today, values seem to have escalated quite a bit over the past few years. People were already talking of a bubble before Covid hit, and it seems prices have only gone up again. So it's certainly possible that they could slide back a bit, but I would guess not too far.
Merak - these don't seem that expensive currently, decent value compared to say a Ferrari 308, and it's possible that the new MC20's arrival could drive interest in nimble V6 mid-engined Maseratis. Longer term, at some point the people who lusted after them as schoolboys will be over the hill, but probably safe til 2030 onwards.
930 Turbo BTR - super rare so hard to say what values were or are. At a guess, given the solidity of Porsche values and interest in 80s cars, and RUF being better known today than in the past, probably safe-ish.
Ferrari 456 - these are on a fairly well established upwards trend, as with most 90s performance cars. I guess continued moderate appreciation.
Really hard to say, there's always the possibility of another bubble-burst like the 90s crash in classic values, and uncertainty over the transition to electric. But I don't see any of those three as hugely over-valued per se, and they feel to me like the kind of cars that would be owned by 'enthusiasts' rather than investors or bandwagon-jumpers.
^^^ this really, to me it sounds like you have had them for ages.
The 911 is the only one I know anything of, but generally I would imagine the lover you’ve had them the better, unless you bought them new.
If you bought at top of the market, then you could lose out, or not.
But the 911 is rare so I wouldn’t expect it to lose much if anything. It also shouldn’t be massively expensive to keep, unless it gets rusty, which a lot if not all do or will.
The 911 is the only one I know anything of, but generally I would imagine the lover you’ve had them the better, unless you bought them new.
If you bought at top of the market, then you could lose out, or not.
But the 911 is rare so I wouldn’t expect it to lose much if anything. It also shouldn’t be massively expensive to keep, unless it gets rusty, which a lot if not all do or will.
The one to worry about IMO is the 456. Personally I think these are hugely under-loved but they’ve always struggled for price. They are not at all easy to sell for the prices you see online.
The issue is that they are an unflashy 4-seat GT-style Ferrari which is always a challenge (eg 400 and 612 lag their 2-seat counterparts considerably), plus they are hugely expensive to fix, even by Ferrari standards. The combination means that if something needs doing, the cost can easily outstrip any value to be gained. The risk of this keeps the value of the car down.
That said, as you’ll know it’s an effortlessly handsome car with a beautiful leather interior and THE classic V12. So if all classic Ferraris bubble up in price, the 456 will follow, but I’d expect all but the most pristine examples to always struggle pricewise at the bottom of the heap sadly.
The issue is that they are an unflashy 4-seat GT-style Ferrari which is always a challenge (eg 400 and 612 lag their 2-seat counterparts considerably), plus they are hugely expensive to fix, even by Ferrari standards. The combination means that if something needs doing, the cost can easily outstrip any value to be gained. The risk of this keeps the value of the car down.
That said, as you’ll know it’s an effortlessly handsome car with a beautiful leather interior and THE classic V12. So if all classic Ferraris bubble up in price, the 456 will follow, but I’d expect all but the most pristine examples to always struggle pricewise at the bottom of the heap sadly.
I think in the long run none of these will appreciate from today's value, especially once you take inflation into account. My view is that most road cars [excluding the real, very limited production number collector cars in pristine low mileage/museum condition] will correct in pricing [possibly quite substantially] over the next decade as using them will become (i) more expensive (tax, insurance, various low emissions zone charges], (ii) will become less socially acceptable (doesn't matter that the environmental impact of the guy buying a new electric car every 2 years is much worse than my V12 that I have owned for a decade and never replaced with a new car] - all about signaling effect, (iii) fewer and fewer people will be interested in these types of cars as a new generation of car buyers becomes the main source of funds [see more and more cars being introduced at the Consumer conference thingy instead of a dedicated car show] and finally (iv) the quite substantially appreciation of real assets over the last 5+ years. With cars this was driven to a not insubstantial part by "investors" who are not necessarily car enthusiasts and might well jump ship soon given rising rates / alternative ways to invest the funds / a feeling the car market has run its course for the time being.
If you enjoy driving them, then keep them, but if you plan on the current value of those cars as part of your pension, then I would strongly suggest to sell (maybe not all of them, but 2 of 3, just keep your favourite).
I do think that race cars from well know manufacturers that are eligible for historic racing events (ideally prestigious ones such as historic LeMans, Daytona etc) or historic rallying events (Peter Auto events etc) might appreciate quite a lot over the next decade and possibly continue to do so much longer than "normal" road cars as I think that is where car enthusiasts will continue to meet to enjoy their hobby - driving in combination with a social component. Some have already appreciated, but I think they have further to go. Plus track days will probably continue to be a thing for similar reasons.
Ultimately I think the universe of purchasers will contract quite substantially imo.
Obviously all purely my opinion and as so often I suspect my assessment will be wrong (or at minimum will be wrong for a long while until I am right)...
If you enjoy driving them, then keep them, but if you plan on the current value of those cars as part of your pension, then I would strongly suggest to sell (maybe not all of them, but 2 of 3, just keep your favourite).
I do think that race cars from well know manufacturers that are eligible for historic racing events (ideally prestigious ones such as historic LeMans, Daytona etc) or historic rallying events (Peter Auto events etc) might appreciate quite a lot over the next decade and possibly continue to do so much longer than "normal" road cars as I think that is where car enthusiasts will continue to meet to enjoy their hobby - driving in combination with a social component. Some have already appreciated, but I think they have further to go. Plus track days will probably continue to be a thing for similar reasons.
Ultimately I think the universe of purchasers will contract quite substantially imo.
Obviously all purely my opinion and as so often I suspect my assessment will be wrong (or at minimum will be wrong for a long while until I am right)...
I never understand these posts.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Bispal said:
I never understand these posts.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Nail. Hit. On. Head. Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Bispal said:
I never understand these posts.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Totally! I'll likely never be able to afford a nice classic car and most of the people on here moan constantly whilst owning loads of them. Christ, you don't know how lucky you are!Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
Bispal said:
I never understand these posts.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
What a great post.
Someone (and I mean anyone not just the OP) spends almost an entire life building up a collection of nice cars that would have been cherished & enjoyed, built up memories & experience, perhaps even become part of the family and possibly appreciated, Then at some time in the future they want to unload most of the cars, probably when too elderly to enjoy to the full? And cash in their chips. Then what? Sit at home with hundreds of thousands of pounds in the bank without your wonderful cars? Makes no sense to me, even if you want to pass money on to family a long term family car is a much better inheritance than some cash with no meaning or memories.
The more they are used the less they break, the more memories you make and the lower the cost per mile,
If there are some you don't like as much as others get rid now. Cut your collection down to the cars you use and enjoy and sell the rest. Enjoy what you have and keep them till you don't want them. If you worry about the future value of a car then I really think you are not that bothered about it and might as well let it go and invest in something with a better return with no maintenance costs.
What a great post.
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