Long Term Supercar Prices

Long Term Supercar Prices

Author
Discussion

MK1RS Bruce

Original Poster:

681 posts

145 months

Monday 7th September 2020
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I have been thinking, which is always dangerous on a Monday, but what will happen long term to the prices and essentially what will happen to "everyday" supercars when they get to a mileage / condition point that they have next to no demand?

The reason I ask is that we live in a time 2000s on wards where 350 - 500+BHP super cars have and are rolling out of showrooms faster than ever before so the chances of them being rare and sought after especially in the condition I mentioned above is going to be unlikely.

Will we see the day where a 100000 mile R8 can be had for mid teens ££s or will they end up broken for parts or will they find their way at a price point higher than that into the hands of car enthusiasts making the supply disappear?

The R8 is an obvious example but I can see no reason why the current cooking model Porsches won't be the same and anything else that isn't particularly rare. The 996s etc are sort of already there but its difficult to tell if that is due to oversupply or because of the known issues that plagued them.

Maybe I am over estimating the numbers of these types of cars out there and they will always have a bottom floor they don't drop below.

Interested to hear opinions


Ferruccio

1,840 posts

126 months

Monday 7th September 2020
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Yes.
Modern sports cars are very complicated now.
So to keep old ones on the road will be expensive.
There is also an endless supply of new ones.
That’ll drive the price down and for some it’ll not be cost effective to keep them on the road.

Roof down

301 posts

133 months

Monday 7th September 2020
quotequote all
Modern tax efficient, fuel efficient, electric hybrids will kill big gas guzzling current supercars especially with the pollutants that are emitted.
The younger generation won’t want them, I listen to my grandchildren and the oldest two of them are quite keen to obtain a Tesla one day .
Shame really but life’s moving on fast.

21ATS

1,100 posts

79 months

Monday 7th September 2020
quotequote all
Cars of this nature reach a point very quickly at which the sum of their parts is worth more than the car as a whole road going vehicle.

You're unlikely to find £18K Audi R8's when there's likely £28K's worth of parts if it's broken.

Have a look at Eurospares.co.uk to see what I mean.

Chris355

822 posts

203 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
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History tells us that old supercars go one of two ways; some get broken for parts because they are too expensive to fix and the remaining cars rarity increases and they go up in price. Hence you see a U depreciation curve.

Eg. Ferrari 360 - RRP c£10500-135000, dropped into the £30000’s at their lowest, now in the £50-90000 range.

Other cars will do this too, but the remaining numbers have to be small. Eg a good Renault 5 turbo, which was about £7000 new, can now make £12000+.

Edited by Chris355 on Tuesday 8th September 09:01

MK1RS Bruce

Original Poster:

681 posts

145 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
my original post was mainly around the premise that we are in uncharted territory because never before have we had so many cars in this bracket. I also tend to think that ferraris never fall into this category due to their heritage.

Going to the sum of the parts holding the cars at a bottom value is this not only true if demand for parts is sufficient to warrant it, otherwise there should be no bottom to the price?

r o n n i e

382 posts

183 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
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Interesting points.

Whilst volumes have increased I think the general principles will continue - well maintained and lower mileage examples will U curve depreciate / appreciate.

Ones that are too expensive or no longer of asset value to maintain will disappear.

MDL111

7,177 posts

184 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
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21ATS said:
Cars of this nature reach a point very quickly at which the sum of their parts is worth more than the car as a whole road going vehicle.

You're unlikely to find £18K Audi R8's when there's likely £28K's worth of parts if it's broken.

Have a look at Eurospares.co.uk to see what I mean.
but what will happen to prices of those parts if not enough people are interested in keeping the cars running ....

Zippee

13,582 posts

241 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
Roof down said:
Modern tax efficient, fuel efficient, electric hybrids will kill big gas guzzling current supercars especially with the pollutants that are emitted.
The younger generation won’t want them, I listen to my grandchildren and the oldest two of them are quite keen to obtain a Tesla one day .
Shame really but life’s moving on fast.
I think this hits the nail on the head really in the mid to long term. So many youngsters nowadays aspire to own a Tesla or similar and the way the Governments are preaching environmental change means it won't belong until big petrol engined cars become shunned in the public eye.

MK1RS Bruce

Original Poster:

681 posts

145 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
Zippee said:
I think this hits the nail on the head really in the mid to long term. So many youngsters nowadays aspire to own a Tesla or similar and the way the Governments are preaching environmental change means it won't belong until big petrol engined cars become shunned in the public eye.
I live in the middle of the countryside and currently work in the oil and gas industry so if I can pick up a cheap gas guzzling monster because no one else wants it and (selfishly!!!!) support my own industry then that's sort of position A for me. The question was really is this going to be the reality for some of these cars and it looks like you support my hypothesis?

sparta6

3,734 posts

107 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
Are we really going to see Euro Tours in Teslas ?

Aside from the experience, there are some practical issues too.

21ATS

1,100 posts

79 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
MDL111 said:
but what will happen to prices of those parts if not enough people are interested in keeping the cars running ....
I guess that's the current unknown.

So lets hazard a guess, the cars would then effectively become worthless once they were not roadworthy, not dissimillar to 300SL gullwings back in the 70's. Left to rot/get crushed until so few remain that they become interesting, then as so few remain the values sky rocket and the whole scenario become self fulfilling.

WIll this happen with modern machinery? I think the electronics issues may create a finite lifespan for many of these cars. McLarens for example, it seem they have enough electrical gremilins from new, who'd want to be dealing with a 20 year old one that's from the current line up. It's not like it's an F1 which is on the whole mechanical and analogue.

It's an interesting prospect.

Cheib

23,761 posts

182 months

Tuesday 8th September 2020
quotequote all
21ATS said:
MDL111 said:
but what will happen to prices of those parts if not enough people are interested in keeping the cars running ....
I guess that's the current unknown.

So lets hazard a guess, the cars would then effectively become worthless once they were not roadworthy, not dissimillar to 300SL gullwings back in the 70's. Left to rot/get crushed until so few remain that they become interesting, then as so few remain the values sky rocket and the whole scenario become self fulfilling.

WIll this happen with modern machinery? I think the electronics issues may create a finite lifespan for many of these cars. McLarens for example, it seem they have enough electrical gremilins from new, who'd want to be dealing with a 20 year old one that's from the current line up. It's not like it's an F1 which is on the whole mechanical and analogue.

It's an interesting prospect.
I think this is a very valid point....modern cars could definitely become too expensive/difficult to maintain due to the complexity...in which case we’re talking I suppose cars made in the last ten years. That combined with the shear number of cars made means I think this generation of cars will suffer in the future.

I have no idea what Ferrari’s attitude to third parties servicing their cars is but I know McLaren’s is shocking and Porsche’s is very good. That’s going to make a big difference.

priley

505 posts

195 months

Wednesday 9th September 2020
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I think the ageing technology point is a valid one and has been mentioned here many times. However will it not just be the case that some specialists will move into that area as there’s money to be made? Just like engine, bodywork, paint specialists?

Zippee

13,582 posts

241 months

Wednesday 9th September 2020
quotequote all
sparta6 said:
Are we really going to see Euro Tours in Teslas ?

Aside from the experience, there are some practical issues too.
Thing is, think how much tech has changed in the last 5 years and how fast that is progressing. Now think how that will have potentially developed in another 10-15 years.

sparta6

3,734 posts

107 months

Wednesday 9th September 2020
quotequote all
Zippee said:
sparta6 said:
Are we really going to see Euro Tours in Teslas ?

Aside from the experience, there are some practical issues too.
Thing is, think how much tech has changed in the last 5 years and how fast that is progressing. Now think how that will have potentially developed in another 10-15 years.
No doubt.
And it will leave us with a choice.
Do we drive ICE supercars through the Alps, or something with a big battery instead ?

Pleasure versus practicality will play its part.