Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains
Discussion
What is the collective PH wisdom on Chris Harris's column in Feb 2019 Top Gear issue .
I lack the skill to copy and paste the whole , or parts , of the article , but I am sure that someone else here could do so (copyright permitting) .
So selected quotes :
''The bubble actually burst more than a year ago , but the fallout is just becoming visible . The used car market , especially the murky corner that deals in fast and older cars , is in the process of taking a massive dump. ….. But first we have to work through the usual sludge of denial, recriminations and a few lies ………..But the warnings have been there for years . Prices became way overheated and the disposals are just seeping into the marketplace, which means idiots like me will soon be snaffling bargains ……….It's going to be a fun year ''
A really hard hitting article from someone respected and in the know , who has previously has put his hand into his own pocket to taste some pretty tasty morsels .
And not an article that can be lightly dismissed simply by saying ''Its a car , just buy it and drive it '' , because you could possibly get onto the next rung up the car ladder for the same money if what Mr Harris says is true .
I lack the skill to copy and paste the whole , or parts , of the article , but I am sure that someone else here could do so (copyright permitting) .
So selected quotes :
''The bubble actually burst more than a year ago , but the fallout is just becoming visible . The used car market , especially the murky corner that deals in fast and older cars , is in the process of taking a massive dump. ….. But first we have to work through the usual sludge of denial, recriminations and a few lies ………..But the warnings have been there for years . Prices became way overheated and the disposals are just seeping into the marketplace, which means idiots like me will soon be snaffling bargains ……….It's going to be a fun year ''
A really hard hitting article from someone respected and in the know , who has previously has put his hand into his own pocket to taste some pretty tasty morsels .
And not an article that can be lightly dismissed simply by saying ''Its a car , just buy it and drive it '' , because you could possibly get onto the next rung up the car ladder for the same money if what Mr Harris says is true .
I think this article is referring more to cars such as the Speciale, the GT3’s and all this cars that people have bought and then sell back to the dealer for more money than they bought them for 6 months down the line and this is of course ludicrous but is simple supply and demand. The car has to be extremely special to command a premium a long way into the future, mclaren P1 or f40/f50 special. To think anything other than that you are only kidding yourself.
[quote=AndrewD
I think a return to the days when people bought cars for what they were is sadly long gone.
[/quote]
Unless you are talking about the genuinely, very limited production, special specials,
anyone buying one of the limitlessly produced modern super cars, for any other reason, will be horribly disappointed.
I think a return to the days when people bought cars for what they were is sadly long gone.
[/quote]
Unless you are talking about the genuinely, very limited production, special specials,
anyone buying one of the limitlessly produced modern super cars, for any other reason, will be horribly disappointed.
I hope he's right. I'd love to buy an old RS. Harry Metcalf was guiding a non matching numbers rhd 72 RS to £350k a few weeks ago. Thats mental money for a useable car rather than collector quality.
Speciale loads of them for sale but all Uk cars RHD circa £300 to £350k too. At £250k I'm ready to jump in but doesn't look like what Harris is saying is being reflected in asking prices. Just more cars on the market than before at pretty high asking prices.
Speciale loads of them for sale but all Uk cars RHD circa £300 to £350k too. At £250k I'm ready to jump in but doesn't look like what Harris is saying is being reflected in asking prices. Just more cars on the market than before at pretty high asking prices.
Boom and Bust is nothing new.
This cycle is more pronounced due to the effect of QE post 2008 crisis, and its withdrawal a few years ago. But just like property, prime will always be prime even when the cycle is heading south.
Sure, those ''classics'' which are sub-prime but rose with the tide, will fall fast. Those who borrowed money to fund sub-prime will feel the pain especially hard.
New LE cars are no longer really ''LE'', every manufacturer seems to produce an LE car, every other month. 2015/16 for me was the end of an era.
Ever tightening emission regulations will gradually savage all outliers, irrespective of future macro economic cycles, to the point many classics today will sadly be worth scrap.
But prime stuff (the real prime) will be sort after in decades to come. Why? Because heavyweight collectors of anything who have sufficient funds will always want what's prime and what's scarce. Sqillionaires who are still infants today will have they're own private roads/tracks which they will share with other Squillionaires. 12 car garages comprising historic greats will be the ultimate status symbol.
Until then, smile, let's enjoy our cars and remember there are millions on the planet who for them a waiting list is for a cup of food.
This cycle is more pronounced due to the effect of QE post 2008 crisis, and its withdrawal a few years ago. But just like property, prime will always be prime even when the cycle is heading south.
Sure, those ''classics'' which are sub-prime but rose with the tide, will fall fast. Those who borrowed money to fund sub-prime will feel the pain especially hard.
New LE cars are no longer really ''LE'', every manufacturer seems to produce an LE car, every other month. 2015/16 for me was the end of an era.
Ever tightening emission regulations will gradually savage all outliers, irrespective of future macro economic cycles, to the point many classics today will sadly be worth scrap.
But prime stuff (the real prime) will be sort after in decades to come. Why? Because heavyweight collectors of anything who have sufficient funds will always want what's prime and what's scarce. Sqillionaires who are still infants today will have they're own private roads/tracks which they will share with other Squillionaires. 12 car garages comprising historic greats will be the ultimate status symbol.
Until then, smile, let's enjoy our cars and remember there are millions on the planet who for them a waiting list is for a cup of food.
Quality older stuff seems to be as strong as ever. Modern stuff isnt unless it's a genuinely special thing or rare. Too many limited edition cars from manufacturers that have jumped on the bandwagon such that they aren't limited edition anymore didn't help it.
All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
Edited by _Leg_ on Saturday 23 March 17:15
_Leg_ said:
Quality older stuff seems to be as strong as ever. Modern stuff isnt unless it's a genuinely special thing or rare. Too many limited edition cars from manufacturers that have jumped on the bandwagon such that they aren't limited edition anymore didn't help it.
All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
I deeply sympathize with your situation and strikes a chord as i watched my mother in the same state a few years ago, also 73. Its only after her passing that i decided that there's more to life than work and money..I've since bought some nice cars to enjoy my passion rather than dreaming about it when reading EVO or Autocar.All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
Edited by _Leg_ on Saturday 23 March 17:15
Taffy66 said:
_Leg_ said:
Quality older stuff seems to be as strong as ever. Modern stuff isnt unless it's a genuinely special thing or rare. Too many limited edition cars from manufacturers that have jumped on the bandwagon such that they aren't limited edition anymore didn't help it.
All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
I deeply sympathize with your situation and strikes a chord as i watched my mother in the same state a few years ago, also 73. Its only after her passing that i decided that there's more to life than work and money..I've since bought some nice cars to enjoy my passion rather than dreaming about it when reading EVO or Autocar.All good. More cars for people who want to drive them at reasonable prices, especially 'run of the mill' supercars. The market is still good for people that collect very special things or older stuff. I.e. collectors not speculators.
IM slightly biased O. ;-)
Edit - Think I'm saying pretty much what Camlet is to a degree. To further echo his thoughts (final statement regarding people worse off) I've spent most of this week with my wife, kids and mother in law at hospital watching my father in law slowly decline in health. He's now at the 'do not resuscitate and no treatment' stage and his chest defibrillator has been switched off. 73 years old with complex health issues driven by a hereditary condition. I doubt any of us will say, on our death bed, "I remember when I saved some money". Aim to be able to say "I drove through the alps in a Ferrari with my mates, it was epic".
Time is a wasting, buy it, drive it, enjoy it.
PS. Sorry, feeling a bit philosophical after the week we've had.
Edited by _Leg_ on Saturday 23 March 17:15
With regards to bubbles and value I say buy what you can asap and enjoy it. You could wait forever for the market to come to you, better to go to the market you can afford and crack on.
I was reminiscing with my ex-business partner over brunch yesterday that in 2012, when our business was really starting to fly, it didn't even occur to me to go into the Ferrari dealer (that I drove past every day) and stick a £60k deposit down on a 458, I went to the Porsche dealer down the road and bought a Boxster S (which I still run as my winter DD, top car) cash instead. I do wonder why it didn't occur to me but it never even crossed my mind. Personally that's my preferred approach, buy what you can afford to drive where and when and for as long as you wish. Better to do 50,000 miles having fun in a Boxster than 1000 in a Ferrari that sits in the garage IMO.
Whether, for some, that's 50,000 miles in a Ferrari rather that 1000 in a Bugatti, the principle, for me, stands.
Anyway, I'll sod off now, don't want to hijack the thread.
If Harris had such a good crystal ball he wouldn't have sold his 4.0 rs, rhd to boot when he did.
Coming off from late 2015 highs which were idiotic isn't a problem as those were not sustainable. Perhaps if we retrace to 2009/2010 prices one might say the market is in all out rout. Not there....yet
and speaking as someone who has through complete fluke benefitted from rising prices, I'm rather happy if they came back down to something sensible as I prefer not to remember I'm burning a heap of money every time i drive the cars. I'm still stupid enough to do so but one cannot help but be aware there is an opportunity cost in doing so.
Coming off from late 2015 highs which were idiotic isn't a problem as those were not sustainable. Perhaps if we retrace to 2009/2010 prices one might say the market is in all out rout. Not there....yet
and speaking as someone who has through complete fluke benefitted from rising prices, I'm rather happy if they came back down to something sensible as I prefer not to remember I'm burning a heap of money every time i drive the cars. I'm still stupid enough to do so but one cannot help but be aware there is an opportunity cost in doing so. Ferruccio said:
Unless you are talking about the genuinely, very limited production, special specials,
anyone buying one of the limitlessly produced modern super cars, for any other reason, will be horribly disappointed.
Agreed. This is the point.anyone buying one of the limitlessly produced modern super cars, for any other reason, will be horribly disappointed.
A variant of a series production car is not really in that super special category.
I've been hunting for a 550/575 Maranello for about 18 months now. In that time sale prices have reduced substantially. Asking prices not so much.
This type of car though in an anomaly. Most of them are 3 or 4th cars and most are owned outright. Most are owned by people who don't really need the money. There are exceptions of course, there's the odd speculator trying to mitigate losses but mostly these are enthusiast vehicles owned by people who are very unlikely to sell them unless the number is so large they can't ignore it.
So rather than 550/575's starting to drop in value in line with the market, they simply disappear from sale and leave a void in the market for that particular car.
Mostly the same cars have been on the market for that 18 months, doing the rounds with the usual suspects, coming on and off the market trying to find a new home.
Another related problem is every now then a truly exceptional one owner low mileage one runs across the block and gets an appropriate bid. These are museum pieces. The next thing you know all the scabby monsters with patchy service history 60K miles and 15 owners hit the market with sky high asking prices.
Whinge over.
This type of car though in an anomaly. Most of them are 3 or 4th cars and most are owned outright. Most are owned by people who don't really need the money. There are exceptions of course, there's the odd speculator trying to mitigate losses but mostly these are enthusiast vehicles owned by people who are very unlikely to sell them unless the number is so large they can't ignore it.
So rather than 550/575's starting to drop in value in line with the market, they simply disappear from sale and leave a void in the market for that particular car.
Mostly the same cars have been on the market for that 18 months, doing the rounds with the usual suspects, coming on and off the market trying to find a new home.
Another related problem is every now then a truly exceptional one owner low mileage one runs across the block and gets an appropriate bid. These are museum pieces. The next thing you know all the scabby monsters with patchy service history 60K miles and 15 owners hit the market with sky high asking prices.
Whinge over.
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