Depreciation effect of new 2019 R8 on 3 year old R8 V10 plus

Depreciation effect of new 2019 R8 on 3 year old R8 V10 plus

Author
Discussion

Wattbe

Original Poster:

5 posts

71 months

Monday 31st December 2018
quotequote all
Hi guys,

This is my first post on here after lots of lurking.
I’m currently looking at jumping into the supercar world by purchasing a 3 year old V10 plus coupe. It’s a good spec coupe, (sport pack, sound and comfort pack, driver assistance pack, Nappa leather, Alcantara, carbon engine bay, 20 inch rims etc) with 8k miles on it for around the £95k mark.
My aim would be to trade it in for something different in a year or so but wondered what your thoughts were on depreciation over that time, particularly with the facelift model being released soon?
Is a trade in value of £85k in a years time realistic or based on what happened to the Gen 1 when the Gen 2 replaced the original Gen 1 back in 2015, is it likely to drop below that?

Apologies for all the questions but I’m dipping my toe into this world for the first time and am hoping to gain some advice from the huge amount of experience on this site.

Thanks in advance.

Ben

Turbo cab

1,601 posts

239 months

Monday 31st December 2018
quotequote all
Wattbe said:
Hi guys,

This is my first post on here after lots of lurking.
I’m currently looking at jumping into the supercar world by purchasing a 3 year old V10 plus coupe. It’s a good spec coupe, (sport pack, sound and comfort pack, driver assistance pack, Nappa leather, Alcantara, carbon engine bay, 20 inch rims etc) with 8k miles on it for around the £95k mark.
My aim would be to trade it in for something different in a year or so but wondered what your thoughts were on depreciation over that time, particularly with the facelift model being released soon?
Is a trade in value of £85k in a years time realistic or based on what happened to the Gen 1 when the Gen 2 replaced the original Gen 1 back in 2015, is it likely to drop below that?

Apologies for all the questions but I’m dipping my toe into this world for the first time and am hoping to gain some advice from the huge amount of experience on this site.

Thanks in advance.

Ben
Drive it off the forcourt, round the block and trade value will be £85k or less within five minutes - it's called dealer margin.

I would assume in a year's time £70k on a trade bid is more realistic, maybe even less.

Wattbe

Original Poster:

5 posts

71 months

Monday 31st December 2018
quotequote all
70k - really?! I expected a loss but £25k down after a year on a 3 year old car is more than I was expecting!
Like I said, I’m very new to this and have only ever leased cars in the past, so just walked away after 3 years hence my lack of knowledge on the subject.
Appreciate the info - at least I can go into this with my eyes wide open.

Cheers,

Ben

foxsasha

1,426 posts

142 months

Monday 31st December 2018
quotequote all
Wattbe said:
70k - really?! I expected a loss but £25k down after a year on a 3 year old car is more than I was expecting!
Like I said, I’m very new to this and have only ever leased cars in the past, so just walked away after 3 years hence my lack of knowledge on the subject.
Appreciate the info - at least I can go into this with my eyes wide open.

Cheers,

Ben
You need to factor in depreciation plus dealer margin. £20k is about right.

carspath

856 posts

184 months

Monday 31st December 2018
quotequote all
Hi Ben ,

Welcome to posting on PH
There are some very knowledgeable people on this forum .

Firstly , I have to say that I know nothing about R8's

Secondly , I too am looking to change my car , and have therefore been through the same thought processes as you-- except that my current car , a 1993 Series 1 MX5 with a tiny amount of rust around the rear arches is prob worth about £1k , and the 2 replacement cars I am considering are also worth a fraction of what you are thinking of spending (mx5 series 3 --£9K : S2 lotus Exige -- £26K)



However the principles are the same :

1) Ignore everyone who moans that this is yet another ''value/money'' thread on PH .
You have to be able to buy a car before you can drive it (thievery not being a recommended option)
So its a perfectly legitimate , in fact essential , topic to discuss.

2) In this economic climate , with the uncertainties of Brexit , the China-US trade war and the shaky economic foundation on which the Chinese economy is based , past R8 used car sales performance , is probably not hugely relevant ( applies equally to an Exige . MX5NC is so much cheaper , so might not be affected) to what a new R8 is going to be worth in 12 months time . It's crystal ball territory .


3) In this economic climate (or in fact ever) , I would not take out any loans to buy a disposable , and generally depreciating asset (On the other hand what do I know -- I'm a surgeon not an expert economist)

4) Why would you want to change a car in 12 months ? I find that it takes a lot longer to really get to know and appreciate a car . If you take the time to really ask yourself what you genuinely want , and you then stick to getting that ideal purchase , you will almost inevitably want to keep it for significantly longer . Every car that I have bought , I have had to think about very carefully , precisely because it was a major investment for me --- and for this very reason , I have only bought what I have really wanted , and as a direct consequence of this , have kept each car for many , many years . I think that I have kept each car that I have ever bought for an average of 10 years --- and I don't subscribe to the idea that you need to constantly change cars to get new input --they are all cars after all , and most new cars are not dissimilar ---and you get constant new input the more you delve into any one car (although it might take more effort to extract this new input , compared to looking at a new dashboard in your latest purchase )

Never forget that your biggest financial loss with a car comes through depreciation --which only kicks in when you sell a car . The trader does well from you though (which I don't for a moment regret , if he or she provides a good, honest service )

So , no info at all about R8's I'm afraid , but some general principles that are equally valid for a series 3 or an Exige .

Maybe i'll just get that small amount of rust sorted out on my current MX5 NA

Happy New Year

mikiec

326 posts

93 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Assume the dealer has a margin of 10k, so paid 85k and lists it for 95k.
If said car, 1 year later is worth 85k then the best you can hope for is 75k as a trade,give or take. So you are effectively taking a 20k hit for a 10k drop in the cars value.

Buying and selling privately could be an alternative but has its own issues.

Pretty much you are going to take a big hit on most cars less then 5 years old if you sell in a year, especially via dealers.

ghost83

5,546 posts

197 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Considering dealer margin and natural depreciation £20k-25k

If brexit seriously screws everything up might even lose more

Nano2nd

3,426 posts

263 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
i'd agree with the 20-25k estimates, you might do slightly better but could do a lot worst who really knows?

if you went for a Gen1 car you might stand more chance of getting in a out in 12 months at closer to 10-15K

Wattbe

Original Poster:

5 posts

71 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
The 20k-25k loss in a year is more than I initially expected but it does make sense when I look at it on paper.
Thanks for all the replies - appreciate it.

Cheers,

Ben

akadk

1,521 posts

186 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
There is a lovey Gen 1 Plus for £62k.

But that and it’ll cost you £5/£10k in a year max.

Trev450

6,439 posts

179 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
akadk said:
There is a lovey Gen 1 Plus for £62k.

But that and it’ll cost you £5/£10k in a year max.
Your crystal ball is extremely accurate, akadk. That is the amount i paid for my 2010 V10 two years ago and is now currently worth around £50K.

oo7ml

386 posts

112 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Yes, the dealer margin is something that people tend to forget.

I agree with the values mentioned above, however another thing you need to take into consideration is that when you trade your car in, in 12 months, the dealer will not give you as much of a discount on the newer desired car (in 12 months) because you are trading in. It’s important to build this cost / loss into the car too, or the transition to the next.

- depreciation
- dealer markup
- loss of bargain / discount on next car (due to trade in VS cash purchase)

For example, let’s say you bought that v10 Plus today... and now let’s fast forward 12 months, and pretend you want to buy a new car, a £100k GT3. The dealer might give you £75k for the R8 but that would be based on you paying the full £100k for the GT3 or £74k for R8 and £99k for the GT3. Regardless you will lose out by trading in, so I would consider trying to sell it privately as you’re likely to get more for it and you’ll have bargaining power for the new car too.

The very best of luck with whatever car you decide to go with.

Trevor555

4,504 posts

91 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Trev450 said:
akadk said:
There is a lovey Gen 1 Plus for £62k.

But that and it’ll cost you £5/£10k in a year max.
Your crystal ball is extremely accurate, akadk. That is the amount i paid for my 2010 V10 two years ago and is now currently worth around £50K.
I doubt if it'll ever drop much below 50k

Especially in a few years time when everything goes part electric, and stricter emissions and noise regs kills off cars like the R8 V10.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start creeping up.

crimbo

1,308 posts

235 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
I think everyone is right here, they are going to be sub 80k for an early gen2 in a year. I have already seen none v10 plus at this and that's with dealer margin.

If your bothered about loosing more than 10k I would steer clear for a year and either get a nice gen1 v10 or something cheaper like a gtr

With the uncertainty of brexit and the doom an gloom. Either way the uncertainty of it all is going to open up financial opportunities to the ones willing to risk so alot of people will take the plunge to make money from it rather than have it sitting in a car

Plus the fact, there is a tonne or r8s out there coming to 3years old etc so the original warranties are up/pcps/ finance etc

So more will hit the used car market. At the time when people are waiting to see just how its going to pan out

Ideally you want to buy something your going to keep and enjoy for a good few years others wise your going to lose alot fast with moving them on

Trev450

6,439 posts

179 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Trevor555 said:
Trev450 said:
akadk said:
There is a lovey Gen 1 Plus for £62k.

But that and it’ll cost you £5/£10k in a year max.
Your crystal ball is extremely accurate, akadk. That is the amount i paid for my 2010 V10 two years ago and is now currently worth around £50K.
I doubt if it'll ever drop much below 50k

Especially in a few years time when everything goes part electric, and stricter emissions and noise regs kills off cars like the R8 V10.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start creeping up.
I was kind of thinking (hoping) much the same thing so it's good to hear others on the same wavelength.

Fiammetta

404 posts

95 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Your best bet £££ wise is to search for a £60 K worth of Ferrari 360 or lower .
Run it as you wish and in 1-2 yr or longer enjoy zero depreciation.
I,am on my third “ old “ Ferrari and always sold for more than I paid .
The increases covered to running costs so basically I,ve had free motoring .

About the V10 - might be worth a peep into the Lamborghini pages there’s a guy contemplating a engine rebuild due to the CAT,s disintegrating ( normal ageing and poor design of the 5.0 set up -but engineered out in the 5.2 ) .What I,am saying there could be other factors at play now that’s out about the V10 5.0 .

Wattbe

Original Poster:

5 posts

71 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Cheers for all the advice. It was a toss up between an 8 year old LP560 Bicoloure or the Gen 2 R8.
I’m guessing that the Lamborghini isn’t going to depreciate anywhere near as much as the Audi and could potentially move it on in a years time and only lose the amount in the dealers margin?

Round numbers, purhased for £95k, trade in/sell to dealer for £80k - £85k in a years time, does that sound realistic subject to the world not exploding on the brexit deadline?

I’ve been leasing a Huracan for a short while and feel that the LP560 is an obvious step down or does the ‘rawness’ of the single clutch and analogue dials add something to the occasion?

The R8 appeals in its similarity to the Huracan but the thought of losing £25k in a year detracts from that somewhat.


Thanks again for all the advice - it’s great to be able to tap into the wealth of knowledge on here.

Cheers,

Ben

RSbandit

2,786 posts

139 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
I bought a 2014 V10 plus in Aug 2016 for £78k, I traded that in this summer and had bids of £68k from my local Porsche center and an independent garage against other cars... Dealer usually looks to make 7-10% so a year from absolute best case they might bid you 80k, changing cars every year and crossing the dealer spread gets expensive!

Trevor555

4,504 posts

91 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
RSbandit said:
I bought a 2014 V10 plus in Aug 2016 for £78k, I traded that in this summer and had bids of £68k from my local Porsche center and an independent garage against other cars... Dealer usually looks to make 7-10% so a year from absolute best case they might bid you 80k, changing cars every year and crossing the dealer spread gets expensive!
I'd have been happy with that.

Part of owning an expensive motor is accepting that it might cost.

I always justify it by working it out into a weekly cost.

Yours was £96 per week.

Or £13.71 per day.

What could possibly give you more enjoyment for £13.71 per day?

Taaaaang

6,629 posts

193 months

Tuesday 1st January 2019
quotequote all
Surely the lease on a Huracan has been significantly more expensive than 25k per year?