supercar prices and brexit
Discussion
Please no pro brexit / pro remain argument. There is general agreement that our economy will be affected over the next couple of years whatever the decision is.
I am trying to get a handle on the likely effect of Brexit on suoercar prices at the bottom end ( ie 100k or thereabouts) since I have an empty garage and money in the bank.. On the one hand it looks likely that Brexit will do some damage to the economy if only because it will affect both sterling and confidence. People are sitting on their wallets and this could well get worse. Some jobs will be lost, maybe in the City where many new supercars go. So you could see asset prices falling both cars and houses as we wend out weary way through the Brexit process. many will say this is already happening.
As against that, the prices of supercars are correlated across countries even with RHD and LHD. Too big a difference between prices here and in the EU and cars will start migrating. Imports of LHD will stop. So maybe if the 3 falls below 1 euro, the second hand prices might go up. Plus prices in November are always a bit lower than in May.
At the back of my mind I remember Ferrari 328 prices down at 25k and lately at 70k. Bubble markets that can happen again..
So how do you see it?
I am trying to get a handle on the likely effect of Brexit on suoercar prices at the bottom end ( ie 100k or thereabouts) since I have an empty garage and money in the bank.. On the one hand it looks likely that Brexit will do some damage to the economy if only because it will affect both sterling and confidence. People are sitting on their wallets and this could well get worse. Some jobs will be lost, maybe in the City where many new supercars go. So you could see asset prices falling both cars and houses as we wend out weary way through the Brexit process. many will say this is already happening.
As against that, the prices of supercars are correlated across countries even with RHD and LHD. Too big a difference between prices here and in the EU and cars will start migrating. Imports of LHD will stop. So maybe if the 3 falls below 1 euro, the second hand prices might go up. Plus prices in November are always a bit lower than in May.
At the back of my mind I remember Ferrari 328 prices down at 25k and lately at 70k. Bubble markets that can happen again..
So how do you see it?
I don't think it's a pro/anti brexit thing -it's more to do with uncertainty.
It already seems to be having an impact on the housing market. I am selling at the moment and all the agents (Surrey) saying how quiet it is and people just hanging on to see/ expecting bigger discounts. So if the car is the second biggest purchase you would have to think that people are going to be putting off purchases, or maybe getting out of something they were stretching themselves to afford.
i have read lots on here about cars hanging around and not selling in recent months. Personally I don't think that will change anytime soon.
Just my €0.02
It already seems to be having an impact on the housing market. I am selling at the moment and all the agents (Surrey) saying how quiet it is and people just hanging on to see/ expecting bigger discounts. So if the car is the second biggest purchase you would have to think that people are going to be putting off purchases, or maybe getting out of something they were stretching themselves to afford.
i have read lots on here about cars hanging around and not selling in recent months. Personally I don't think that will change anytime soon.
Just my €0.02
Edited by limpsfield on Tuesday 27th November 17:39
Brexit uncertainty doesn’t help the Uk market but the key driver attributed to falling asset prices is the short term business cycle. International markets are in trouble and while some localised assets might have relatively strong fundamentals the automotive industry certainly isn’t one of them.
The only supercars that I am considering now are those which I want to own for 5+ years so residuals mean nothing to me. I’ll consider the purchase price as sunk cash and certainly will not finance any part of it.
The only supercars that I am considering now are those which I want to own for 5+ years so residuals mean nothing to me. I’ll consider the purchase price as sunk cash and certainly will not finance any part of it.
if RHD prices fall low enough, I would buy a car in the UK (an example being the M3 CSL, which is a lot cheaper due to relatively higher numbers - have not bought one, but might eventually) - behaviour like this would support the market a little
Although in fairness I doubt many people on the continent will want a RHD car …. I probably would not want a manual one, or the price differential would have to be quite substantial (also given German insurance costs, which I can only imagine are much higher for RHD)
Generally, I think prices will fall substantially over say the next 3-5 years regardless of European country. People are living in fantasy land imo if they think all these cars priced between say 100k and 200k will hold their value well in the medium term. Just too many cars from too many manufacturers - example, there are probably as many 991 GT/RS Porsches as all previous generations put together. Add McLaren to the mix, which did not exist prior to c 2011 etc
Although in fairness I doubt many people on the continent will want a RHD car …. I probably would not want a manual one, or the price differential would have to be quite substantial (also given German insurance costs, which I can only imagine are much higher for RHD)
Generally, I think prices will fall substantially over say the next 3-5 years regardless of European country. People are living in fantasy land imo if they think all these cars priced between say 100k and 200k will hold their value well in the medium term. Just too many cars from too many manufacturers - example, there are probably as many 991 GT/RS Porsches as all previous generations put together. Add McLaren to the mix, which did not exist prior to c 2011 etc
limpsfield said:
I don't think it's a pro/anti brexit thing -it's more to do with uncertainty.
^^^^ ThisThe uncertainty is causing the stagnation, add in entering the Winter months = bad car selling time. Come March when the EU saga should be resolved and the oncoming Spring I dare say there will be more movement in the market, not sure it will return to 2015 levels mind you.
Monitor the prices of the car type you want very carefully.
bordseye said:
I am trying to get a handle on the likely effect of Brexit on suoercar prices at the bottom end
As others have politely noted you are overthinking thisNo-one knows what effect Brexit is going to have but it is clear that amongst other issues there is huge over-production which is having a knock-on effect
Essentially by the time you stop dithering all the sports cars you're looking at will indeed be much cheaper but you'll be too old to enjoy (almost 80 if I recall correctly)
If you'd bought a brand new i8 3 years go your £ 120 would be £ 40 so the point has to be that whatever else you might buy you'll certainly do better !
People have been talking about the bubble busting for a while, for the last few years people have been speculating on cars due to low interest rates
The economy is certainly going to see some turbulence over the next 1-10 years
Various jobs and industries are likely to be affected one way or another who knows how
I wouldn't be buying a car as an investment at the moment and I wouldn't be buying a car that had recently shot up in value. I've just bought an R8 for £36k. Seems a safer bet than a £70k Ferarri that will cost £5k a year to keep honest and might drop by £50k in 18 months.
The fact that you're asking this and concerned raises doubts about the suitability of the purchase IMO
The economy is certainly going to see some turbulence over the next 1-10 years
Various jobs and industries are likely to be affected one way or another who knows how
I wouldn't be buying a car as an investment at the moment and I wouldn't be buying a car that had recently shot up in value. I've just bought an R8 for £36k. Seems a safer bet than a £70k Ferarri that will cost £5k a year to keep honest and might drop by £50k in 18 months.
The fact that you're asking this and concerned raises doubts about the suitability of the purchase IMO
MDL111 said:
Generally, I think prices will fall substantially over say the next 3-5 years regardless of European country. People are living in fantasy land imo if they think all these cars priced between say 100k and 200k will hold their value well in the medium term. Just too many cars from too many manufacturers - example, there are probably as many 991 GT/RS Porsches as all previous generations put together.
Still relatively low numbers of 991 GT3/RS and there are more 458 Ferraris than 991s.You are forgetting these cars are far more usable and appeal to far more people.
Contrast the usability of a 991 against the drawbacks of a 997.
The other aspect is the particulate filter problems delaying the 718 GT4 and GT3 RS. Current cars will be last pre filter (sapping power and sound) and last oem switchable exhaust.
av185 said:
MDL111 said:
Generally, I think prices will fall substantially over say the next 3-5 years regardless of European country. People are living in fantasy land imo if they think all these cars priced between say 100k and 200k will hold their value well in the medium term. Just too many cars from too many manufacturers - example, there are probably as many 991 GT/RS Porsches as all previous generations put together.
Still relatively low numbers of 991 GT3/RS and there are more 458 Ferraris than 991s.You are forgetting these cars are far more usable and appeal to far more people.
Contrast the usability of a 991 against the drawbacks of a 997.
The other aspect is the particulate filter problems delaying the 718 GT4 and GT3 RS. Current cars will be last pre filter (sapping power and sound) and last oem switchable exhaust.
All the comments make such sensible well balanced reading here.
I am so glad I personally don’t have a huge amount tied up in a recent purchase of a vehicle, without doubt things are not selling, the next year or so will bring changes the like of which we have not seen to our economy, I would wait a few months before doing / buying anything of major value, save for an absolute known bargain.
You only have to look at The tumbling prices of the Cali T of which I am interested in as a case argument.
Yes I know many will say the Cali is not representative here, but it is.
I do believe it’s batton down the hatches for a few months, I voted leave, and in all honesty I don’t know if I did right.
Mike
I am so glad I personally don’t have a huge amount tied up in a recent purchase of a vehicle, without doubt things are not selling, the next year or so will bring changes the like of which we have not seen to our economy, I would wait a few months before doing / buying anything of major value, save for an absolute known bargain.
You only have to look at The tumbling prices of the Cali T of which I am interested in as a case argument.
Yes I know many will say the Cali is not representative here, but it is.
I do believe it’s batton down the hatches for a few months, I voted leave, and in all honesty I don’t know if I did right.
Mike
av185 said:
MDL111 said:
Generally, I think prices will fall substantially over say the next 3-5 years regardless of European country. People are living in fantasy land imo if they think all these cars priced between say 100k and 200k will hold their value well in the medium term. Just too many cars from too many manufacturers - example, there are probably as many 991 GT/RS Porsches as all previous generations put together.
Still relatively low numbers of 991 GT3/RS and there are more 458 Ferraris than 991s.You are forgetting these cars are far more usable and appeal to far more people.
Contrast the usability of a 991 against the drawbacks of a 997.
The other aspect is the particulate filter problems delaying the 718 GT4 and GT3 RS. Current cars will be last pre filter (sapping power and sound) and last oem switchable exhaust.
I am not sure there are more 458s than 991.1 and 991.2 GT/RS/Speedster put together - Ferrari does not publish production numbers, but I think people estimate about 20k built incl. all model variants. If that number is ballpark, then I think it might be relatively close (or a lot closer than in the past). The potentially reduced production of the 991.2 due to the filter might widen the gap though.
I am certainly not betting on my cars not halving in value over the next 5 years. A 150k Scuderia does not look great value to most people if you can have a nearly new McLaren, 992 GT/RS Porsche, Huracan, newer model Ferrari etc. with warranty instead. The older the car the higher the maintenance costs is the other thing - replacing CCB brakes for example is probably not high on the list of things people want to spend 15-20k on after buying an expensive 7-10-year old car. Suspension components, top end rebuilds etc etc - all expensive
bordseye said:
Please no pro brexit / pro remain argument. There is general agreement that our economy will be affected over the next couple of years whatever the decision is.
I am trying to get a handle on the likely effect of Brexit on suoercar prices at the bottom end ( ie 100k or thereabouts) since I have an empty garage and money in the bank.. On the one hand it looks likely that Brexit will do some damage to the economy if only because it will affect both sterling and confidence. People are sitting on their wallets and this could well get worse. Some jobs will be lost, maybe in the City where many new supercars go. So you could see asset prices falling both cars and houses as we wend out weary way through the Brexit process. many will say this is already happening.
As against that, the prices of supercars are correlated across countries even with RHD and LHD. Too big a difference between prices here and in the EU and cars will start migrating. Imports of LHD will stop. So maybe if the 3 falls below 1 euro, the second hand prices might go up. Plus prices in November are always a bit lower than in May.
At the back of my mind I remember Ferrari 328 prices down at 25k and lately at 70k. Bubble markets that can happen again..
So how do you see it?
The car market is very different from 10 years ago. Like all sectors, the mobile web has changed everything (as Steve Jobs predicted when he launched the iphone in 2007). The market is global and instant. And with QE to fuel sharp price increases of prestige/collectible cars from 2013, new norms were set.I am trying to get a handle on the likely effect of Brexit on suoercar prices at the bottom end ( ie 100k or thereabouts) since I have an empty garage and money in the bank.. On the one hand it looks likely that Brexit will do some damage to the economy if only because it will affect both sterling and confidence. People are sitting on their wallets and this could well get worse. Some jobs will be lost, maybe in the City where many new supercars go. So you could see asset prices falling both cars and houses as we wend out weary way through the Brexit process. many will say this is already happening.
As against that, the prices of supercars are correlated across countries even with RHD and LHD. Too big a difference between prices here and in the EU and cars will start migrating. Imports of LHD will stop. So maybe if the 3 falls below 1 euro, the second hand prices might go up. Plus prices in November are always a bit lower than in May.
At the back of my mind I remember Ferrari 328 prices down at 25k and lately at 70k. Bubble markets that can happen again..
So how do you see it?
However, all boats floated. One classic Ferrari model (which is poor to drive and was made in large numbers) went from under 100K to nearly 300K in a few years. Good luck to those owners of it now who bought in the high 2s thinking the only way was up. Alas, QE is gone, replaced by poor growth and political extremes.
The market has changed, it's much larger,and more dynamic. And real classics (like the 288 GTO or F50) will IMO hold their gains, they might even increase as big buyers fly to quality. But for the many cars dragged along in the frenzy of a few years ago, their values now look very fragile.
Forget increasing values. Don't buy a dog, buy well, hunker down and just enjoy the car.
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