Kit car industry dead in 10 years

Kit car industry dead in 10 years

Author
Discussion

Steve Dean

Original Poster:

56 posts

81 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
The political announcement yesterday that no new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars will be allowed from 2030 raises some very interesting questions. If you are building an all new build kit car then you don't have long to do it. And when you have built it, will it have any value?

The questions and implications of all this could fill a whole library.

I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles that everyone is going to be forced to buy. To put this in some real world context ..... a friend who preaches about how they have a smart meter and go round their house turning off single light bulbs, has just purchased an Electric car and are crapping themselves as they've discovered that charging their car uses more electricity than all the appliances in their house being turned on at once.

Discuss !!!!!!!

Pericoloso

44,044 posts

170 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
No one is being "forced to buy"

they could always buy a decent used petrol car.

Only 10 years to assemble a car ,best get a move on.

super7

2,037 posts

215 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
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Just imagine a Caterham / Atom with a light weight motor and battery pack.....

smn159

13,416 posts

224 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
I had a Zoe on a lease for a couple of years / 10k mile pa.. tbh I barely noticed any difference in the electricity bills.

Massive petrol saving though and a lovely thing to commute in.

Equus

16,980 posts

108 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
The kit car industry is dead already. It just hasn't stopped twitching yet.

ElectricSoup

8,202 posts

158 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
Steve Dean said:
The political announcement yesterday that no new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars will be allowed from 2030 raises some very interesting questions. If you are building an all new build kit car then you don't have long to do it. And when you have built it, will it have any value?

The questions and implications of all this could fill a whole library.

I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles that everyone is going to be forced to buy. To put this in some real world context ..... a friend who preaches about how they have a smart meter and go round their house turning off single light bulbs, has just purchased an Electric car and are crapping themselves as they've discovered that charging their car uses more electricity than all the appliances in their house being turned on at once.

Discuss !!!!!!!
Your mate's an idiot then, I did 10,000 miles in the first year of having an electric car, all on home charging. It added £250 to my annual electric bill, or about 2.5 tanks of fuel in my old car. Try doing 10,000 miles on 2.5 tanks of diesel. And the car was second hand and only cost my £10k to buy before the old "electric cars are too expensive" trope gets wheeled out.

Also, most cars are going to charge at night when there's excess capacity already, it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan.

sociopath

3,433 posts

73 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
super7 said:
Just imagine a Caterham / Atom with a light weight motor and battery pack.....
Westfield have now got a Chesil based on, I believe, Tesla underpinnings, and there are several companies now working on converting classics to e power. I can see that expanding into kit cars in the future

sjg

7,532 posts

272 months

Thursday 13th February 2020
quotequote all
Self-built kits are exempt from just about everything, as are the low volume manufacturers. Airbags and ESP have been mandatory for new cars for years but do the likes of Caterham and Westfield and Ariel fit them? Nope, exempt.

Besides, there'll be loads of motors and batteries to play with in a decade's time, and scope for some pretty amazing kit-type sportscars.

Steve Dean said:
I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles
How about the dozens of them from the National Grid themselves?

mikeveal

4,711 posts

257 months

Friday 14th February 2020
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^^Can I book you for a birthday party? Or are you too busy playing Vegas?

Edit:
That was in response to a long post by Johnny5hoods espousing the impossibility of a practical replacement for the ICE (for most people's daily usage) within 15 years.
He went on to state that if it was possible, he was Elvis Presley. Which I took as an excellent opportunity to book the King for a gig.

Sadly, it seems Elvis deleted his post and has left the building.

Edited by mikeveal on Saturday 15th February 12:46

smn159

13,416 posts

224 months

Friday 14th February 2020
quotequote all
Johnny5hoods said:
spittle flecked rant about not meeting the love of your life because electric cars
You need to get out in the fresh air a bit more rofl

Equus

16,980 posts

108 months

Friday 14th February 2020
quotequote all
Johnny5hoods said:
spittle flecked rant about not meeting the love of your life because electric cars
The human race has managed perfectly well for all but a couple of centuries of its 500,000 year existence, despite having no land transport faster or with greater range than a horse.

And we did so without internet and telecommunications rendering 90% of business travel unnecessary...


pigeondave

216 posts

235 months

Sunday 16th February 2020
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Pericoloso said:
No one is being "forced to buy"
They're not, but my worry is that we'll be priced out of it.
If tax was £1k to keep the car on the road I'd have to consider if I'd be keeping it.

Same in a few years with selfdriving cars. All they need to do is wack up the insurance and that's enthusiasts buggered.

My mate says its only the super rich who will be able afford to drive themselves in the future. Worringly I can see that hes probably going to be right.


Furyblade_Lee

4,112 posts

231 months

Sunday 16th February 2020
quotequote all
ElectricSoup said:
Steve Dean said:
The political announcement yesterday that no new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars will be allowed from 2030 raises some very interesting questions. If you are building an all new build kit car then you don't have long to do it. And when you have built it, will it have any value?

The questions and implications of all this could fill a whole library.

I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles that everyone is going to be forced to buy. To put this in some real world context ..... a friend who preaches about how they have a smart meter and go round their house turning off single light bulbs, has just purchased an Electric car and are crapping themselves as they've discovered that charging their car uses more electricity than all the appliances in their house being turned on at once.

Discuss !!!!!!!
Your mate's an idiot then, I did 10,000 miles in the first year of having an electric car, all on home charging. It added £250 to my annual electric bill, or about 2.5 tanks of fuel in my old car. Try doing 10,000 miles on 2.5 tanks of diesel. And the car was second hand and only cost my £10k to buy before the old "electric cars are too expensive" trope gets wheeled out.

Also, most cars are going to charge at night when there's excess capacity already, it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan.
"it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan"....... That is seriously one of the funniest things I have ever heard.

mikeveal

4,711 posts

257 months

Monday 17th February 2020
quotequote all
Furyblade_Lee said:
ElectricSoup said:
"it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan"
That is seriously one of the funniest things I have ever heard.
Agreed Lee.
327 Billion miles were driven in the UK in 2017.
A Nissan Leaf as an example does 100miles per 24KWh.

Going all electric means 327billion miles * 24KWh / 100miles = 78,480 Billion Watt hours of electricity need to be generated and delivered.

Assume these cars charge between 12pm and 8am (as you say, at night) that's 2920 hours.
78,480 Billion Watt hours / 2920 hours = 27 Billion Watts.

Given that there isn't much spare capacity at night (reduced capacity at night is already factored in to our generation mix), we need to add 27 Billion Watts (27GW) to the grid. To put that into perspective capacity is currently 90GW. Hinkley point is a mere 3.2GW and is taking 13 years to build.
That's on top of what we need to replace the 20% generation capacity we've shut down over the last few years (google "electricity generation gap".)

And then of course there's the minor effort of beefing up the grid to get all this extra energy from the new generation sources to the charging points.

And then on top of that, there's talk of switching home heating from gas to electricity.


I'm not saying that the switch to electric won't happen. But it will be painful and expensive. Our views on car ownership may need to change, certainly the costs will.

magpies

5,145 posts

189 months

Monday 17th February 2020
quotequote all
and of course the government will be wanting the shortfall of fuel tax from somewhere (the motorist) so it won't be cheap motoring

dhutch

15,283 posts

204 months

Wednesday 19th February 2020
quotequote all
sjg said:
Self-built kits are exempt from just about everything, as are the low volume manufacturers....
Yes, as suggested, I do wonder if perhaps a ban on (mass production) ic engined cars is actually the next kick the industry needs to really take off again.


Daniel

Pat H

8,058 posts

263 months

Wednesday 19th February 2020
quotequote all
Equus said:
The kit car industry is dead already. It just hasn't stopped twitching yet.
This is deeply sad.

But true.

Back in about 1990 I took a year out from studying law and spent 6 months working for Spax.

Most of my time was spent travelling the country visiting kit car manufacturers, car restorers, tuning shops and the like.

The kit car industry was buoyant and Stoneleigh was a vast affair.

30 years later and it is a very pale shadow of itself.

An awful lot of it is down to the cost and complexity of SVA/IVA, of course.

Back in 1986, it only took a local VRO inspection and an MOT to register the Westfield that Dad and I built.

In 2000 I put together a Caterham. The SVA was an expensive and time consuming PITA.

In 2008 I wanted another Seven, but couldn't be arsed with the whole IVA registration procedure, so just bought a rough old Caterham to rebuild. No decibel limits. No fuel injection. No emissions. No fiddling about putting rubber pads over fasteners. No hassle.

From what I can see, there still remains a bit of a market for plastic shells to drop onto a Triumph chassis or a VW floor pan, which in 2020 is a ridiculous state of affairs, but may indicate the extent to which IVA is the problem.

Take a look at the prices that "classic" kit cars fetch. Elans, Sevens, TVR Vixens, old GTMs, Marcoses, Unipowers etc. They are clearly in great demand and, on the face of it, would be pretty easy to replicate, were it not for the difficulty in getting a "new" one registered.

This is not to say that I am fundamentally opposed to the IVA process. There really was some awful crap for sale in the 1980s, which needed to be kept off the road.

But the number of people who are prepared to rebuild a scruffy Marlin Roadster rather than buy a new kit car is indicative of the problem.

In the short term, there is probably a market for "restoration packages" to breathe new life into old kits that were (hopefully) properly registered back in the day. A high quality replacement chassis for a Dutton Phaeton combined with a replica Dutton P1 body holds a certain appeal as a way of recycling an old Dutton.

It's a very sad state of affairs.


dhutch

15,283 posts

204 months

Wednesday 19th February 2020
quotequote all
Pat H said:
An awful lot of it is down to the cost and complexity of SVA/IVA

From what I can see, there still remains a bit of a market for plastic shells to drop onto a Triumph chassis or a VW floor pan, which in 2020 is a ridiculous state of affairs, but may indicate the extent to which IVA is the problem.
I have not been through an SVA/IVA (nor has me 1991 car) however as I understand it, while a significant set of hoops to job through, and the cost of the IVA a hike, the IVA is basically same rule set as the SVA, through which a lot of car have been?

Is there a significant market for re-shelling a Triumph or VW floor plan? I don't see much of that in my travels (maybe due to where I travel) but would also have thought both were worth a reasonable.

Personally I think the main change has been in the significant availability of cheap high performance production cars, both new and older cars without rot, cheap finance, and costly insurance, including little for kitcars if aged below 21/25 oe increasingly 30 years of age.

If you can't insure it for 10 years, no 20yo would start a build, and by the time your 30 if you haven't been bitten yet, why not just buy a production car!


Daniel

LLantrisant

1,002 posts

166 months

Friday 21st February 2020
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"Is there a significant market for re-shelling a Triumph or VW floor plan? I don't see much of that in my travels (maybe due to where I travel) but would also have thought both were worth a reasonable."

company´s like Sammio, Ribble, Formosa, Tribute have started with those ideas.....some of those cars look really appealing....but its more or less a re-make (bodywise) of something which already existed in the 50ies.

at the end of the day its a clumsy attempt or maybe the last gasp for the kitcar industry to come around IVA.

fact is: due to the different laws in UK in terms of kitcar-registrations and emmissions the inudstry can ONLY sell in UK....even b4 Brexit UK´s national registration laws where not exepted outside UK.....hence, export was only possible for "older" kitcars....this means: all recent kitcar companies need to survive solely with the british market.

98elise

28,223 posts

168 months

Saturday 29th February 2020
quotequote all
Furyblade_Lee said:
ElectricSoup said:
Steve Dean said:
The political announcement yesterday that no new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars will be allowed from 2030 raises some very interesting questions. If you are building an all new build kit car then you don't have long to do it. And when you have built it, will it have any value?

The questions and implications of all this could fill a whole library.

I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles that everyone is going to be forced to buy. To put this in some real world context ..... a friend who preaches about how they have a smart meter and go round their house turning off single light bulbs, has just purchased an Electric car and are crapping themselves as they've discovered that charging their car uses more electricity than all the appliances in their house being turned on at once.

Discuss !!!!!!!
Your mate's an idiot then, I did 10,000 miles in the first year of having an electric car, all on home charging. It added £250 to my annual electric bill, or about 2.5 tanks of fuel in my old car. Try doing 10,000 miles on 2.5 tanks of diesel. And the car was second hand and only cost my £10k to buy before the old "electric cars are too expensive" trope gets wheeled out.

Also, most cars are going to charge at night when there's excess capacity already, it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan.
"it's a non-issue with a bit of an upgrade to the national capacity, for which we have many years to plan"....... That is seriously one of the funniest things I have ever heard.
Did you do physics? The average driver will need 7kWh per day. That's like running a hob for an hour. If you spread that out over say 10 hours late evening to morning then you're looking at a 700wats. That won't even trouble a 13amp socket.