Buying a Tesla M3P - Depreciation predictions

[EVOTECH3BELL]

I can't stop looking at M3Ps on Autotrader.
I've watched every video about them on YouTube
Read a tonne of long term reviews

I'm obsessed currently by the idea of my first EV being a Tesla.

I drive a van to work(not for work), a day van/camper, that we don't camp in any more and don't use as a van either.
It does 32mpg and I'm mostly driving through Wolverhampton City centre and the traffic clogged surrounding area.
Stop stsrt traffic up and down the manual gearbox.

Benefits of this (transporter) is that over 5 years its done next to little depreciation and never gone wrong.

I've also got an estate car that does 23mpg, which is fun but ultimately 1. I don't need an estate. 2. I keep spending money on modifying it.
I've got a classic mini I'm restoring which is almost finished
I've got x2 motorbikes if I want engagement for the drive/ride.

Sell van
Sell estate
Buy Tesla to commute and stuff
Ride bikes/classic mini for fun/weekend.

The tesla seems to have incredible accessable real world performance
No servicing costs
Cheap to run
Can charge from home
Commute is 9.8mi
Tesla still capable of long journeys

Misses has a mini diesel clubman for the dog car.


Can't find a reason why I wouldn't buy a 2019/2020 M3P for between 20-25k.

My only stumbling block is depreciation.

Crystal ball what is a 6-8 year old tesla with no battery/drive unit warranty going to be worth when I come to sell?
It's really the only thing holding me back at the minute.

I

[Martyn76]

No idea about depreciation but you've probably come across these guys on YouTube, if not have a watch, they've recently done some videos on what to look out for with used Tesla models (mostly Model 3 & Ys but relevant to X and S models too) and preventative maintenance.

https://www.youtube.com/@Jamesandkate

[EVOTECH3BELL]

Martyn76 said:

No idea about depreciation but you've probably come across these guys on YouTube, if not have a watch, they've recently done some videos on what to look out for with used Tesla models (mostly Model 3 & Ys but relevant to X and S models too) and preventative maintenance.

https://www.youtube.com/@Jamesandkate

Il give that a watch later, missed that channel

[Merry]

EVOTECH3BELL said:

My only stumbling block is depreciation.

Crystal ball what is a 6-8 year old tesla with no battery/drive unit warranty going to be worth when I come to sell?
It's really the only thing holding me back at the minute.

I

Nobody knows.

I've got a 2020 M3P, my guess is about £10k in 2028.

But that's just a guess.

I'm basing that of a 5 minute mooch down 8 year old performance saloons (less than 6 seconds to 60mph, RWD) on Autotrader with up to 100,000 miles on them.

[Fastlane]

To get a figure, use Autotrader. Sort price by finance, put in your deposit, mileage etc and then look at any that are offered on a PCP, and look at the final payment.

That will give you a very accurate figure based on what the finance houses think they will be worth.

For instance, this one says £10750 after 4 years:

Https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202405230...

[Gone fishing]

I’ve answered on the other thread you posted, but I suspect they’ll continue to depreciate to 12-15k in 2 years as the battery and motor warranty will be about to expire in time if it hasn’t already on mileage.

[smn159]

Well I've just bought an 8 year old Model S for £15k so...

[ShortBeardy]

Rsymons channel might be informative if you haven't already found it.
depreciation is definitely a thing, but unless buying new, will likely be somewhat/mostly/more than offset by low operating costs. Thought given your low mileage and current economical beast maybe closer to the first of those parameters.

[therams]

you might be better off buying a facelift M3 long range AWD (the one with black window trims from about 2021 onwards)

same sort of ballpark price, £20 to £25k ish

year or two newer

build quality better on facelift model

wheels smaller so better driving experience

a bit slower, but not massively so you notice unless you are driving at maximum attack mode all the time

realistically if it costs you £5k a year in depreciation, thats no worse than many other options

[EVOTECH3BELL]

therams said:

you might be better off buying a facelift M3 long range AWD (the one with black window trims from about 2021 onwards)

same sort of ballpark price, £20 to £25k ish

year or two newer

build quality better on facelift model

wheels smaller so better driving experience

a bit slower, but not massively so you notice unless you are driving at maximum attack mode all the time

realistically if it costs you £5k a year in depreciation, thats no worse than many other options

True but I'm just that sort that has to have the performance model just because its the performance model.
.

A used example direct off the tesla website...
Pretended I was pcp and they have a predicted value after 48months of 13k against a 27k purchase price.
So 3.5k a year estimated in depreciation...

[Gone fishing]

EVOTECH3BELL said:

True but I'm just that sort that has to have the performance model just because its the performance model.
.

A used example direct off the tesla website...
Pretended I was pcp and they have a predicted value after 48months of 13k against a 27k purchase price.
So 3.5k a year estimated in depreciation...

PCP future values tend to me at the lower end of expectation and the value is pretty much at the lower end of what I suggested. The charts I posted a link to in the other thread also suggested the same is likely to happen.

£300 a month or so isn't ba for a performance car with the potential for a little upside at the end, its just not free.

[Honeywell]

therams said:

you might be better off buying a facelift M3 long range AWD (the one with black window trims from about 2021 onwards)

same sort of ballpark price, £20 to £25k ish

year or two newer

build quality better on facelift model

wheels smaller so better driving experience

a bit slower, but not massively so you notice unless you are driving at maximum attack mode all the time

realistically if it costs you £5k a year in depreciation, thats no worse than many other options

I am thinking of doing just that on one for sale at £22,000. I COULD lease a brand new one through work for £8000 a year cost to me (15,000 miles a year including insurance serving and tyres).

I am trying to weigh up three years of leasing vs buying a used LR AWD model 3 for £22,000 which my current car is already worth so a straight swap. It's an 840d that does 44mpg owned outright.

3 years of leasing is £24,000. Assuming the used one is £22,000 owned outright I have to find £645 a year to insure it, would likely need 8 tyres in 45,000 miles at £2000 and would need to pay for servicing. The depreciation is the unknown factor.

The bought car would come to me with 75,000 miles on it and in three years time would have 120,000 miles on it. What would a 2021 facelift model 3 be worth in three years time with 120,000 miles on it? If I could make a good guess of that then I'd have a firm idea of the merits of leasing new or buying used.

Any thoughts PH gurus?

Also has anyone much experience of Octopus Intelligent Go with its 6 hours a night of 7.5p electricity? Seems impressive but I always expect a hidden catch....

Thanks in advance.

[smn159]

I'd guess £13- £15k based on what appears to be the current price floor, maybe a bit more. No issues at all with Octopus Intelligent Go - plug it in at night and it's charged in the morning. No downsides that I can see

[aspen]

+1 for octopus intelligent go. It is worth noting that electricity for the whole house is charged at 7.5 per kWh when during the overnight window or when the car is charging on a ‘smart plan’. So you can charge a home battery, run the washing machine on a timer etc.

I’ve got a LR model Y that was very cheap to run for the first few months as I didn’t have a wall charger so all charging was slow yet octopus still let me charge at the cheap rate even during peak hours in the evening!

Actually like the Y much more than I expected to so picking up a 21 LR 3 to compliment it. Will be replacing my supercharged GT86. Sad to see it go but due to practicality it doesn’t get used.

Edited by aspen on Sunday 9th June 19:15

[Honeywell]

So it seems I should factor in £3000 a year depreciation against the £8000 a year lease cost. Plus £650 insurance plus a set of tyres times two plus servicing. How much is three years of servicing between 60,000 and 95,000 miles?

Will suspension bushes need doing at circa £1,200?


Thanks in advance.

[Gone fishing]

Honeywell said:

So it seems I should factor in £3000 a year depreciation against the £8000 a year lease cost. Plus £650 insurance plus a set of tyres times two plus servicing. How much is three years of servicing between 60,000 and 95,000 miles?

Will suspension bushes need doing at circa £1,200?


Thanks in advance.

Servicing/repairs wise I think a budget of £750 a year should more than cover it. The extended warranty (if they’re offering it, it seems to come and go) is something like £2700 for 4 years/50k miles, and that includes insurance tax and profit, of course there are winners and losers on insurance

Octopus once setup is pretty good, it’s a little more expensive during the day but do a few washing machine loads overnight on cheap rate and you’ll be better off (there’s also a £50 joining credit if you use a referral which anyone on octopus can give you), You do need to have a smart meter.

Having owned both, the 840d is a very very different car, much more refined and had a depth to the engineering you won’t get with Tesla, but horses for courses and all that.

[Honeywell]

I am now installing a 24 panel 440w solar system plus a 13.4Kwh home battery and a (free) GivEnergy 7Kwh EV charger. I have a smart meter from Octopus and should be all set by the end of August to run a 2021 Long Range Model 3 ideally costing about £21,000 with around 60,000 miles on the clock. Seems to be about 20 a day being listed on Autotrader so lots of choice.

Having the solar at the same time as the EV charger and home battery means both are VAT free and GivEnergy just started a promotion on free EV charge points in response to Tesla releasing Powerwall 3.

Here's to an Autumn of very cheap motoring.

[ChocolateFrog]

Doubt it will be less than £10k.