Model X Residuals
Discussion
The tax advantages of electric cars are well known.
Comcar suggests that a 7 seat model X LR with 50k on the clock after 5 years is worth £38,525 (list of £86,325).
The second hand market for the 75D suggests that, if anything, those figures are very conservative.
Anyone differ? Can't quite my head round paying £85k for a new car but the sums still work in my favour compared with a diesel 7 seater.
Comcar suggests that a 7 seat model X LR with 50k on the clock after 5 years is worth £38,525 (list of £86,325).
The second hand market for the 75D suggests that, if anything, those figures are very conservative.
Anyone differ? Can't quite my head round paying £85k for a new car but the sums still work in my favour compared with a diesel 7 seater.
How much competition will there be in the market in 5 years time, will battery technology have advanced considerably, will there be an all new model X as the current one would be a 10 year old design at that point, will the model Y have an effect on used X prices once launched in the UK?
Using existing depreciation trends to judge the future in a fast moving marketplace is probably not a great idea I'd suggest. You're also dealing with a manufacturer that could decide to drop new prices by £10k overnight on a whim which would have a similar effect on used values?
ETA - Tesla's own PCP offering has the GFV for 4 years/40k at £30,682, so £53k in depreciation on the standard X LR.
Using existing depreciation trends to judge the future in a fast moving marketplace is probably not a great idea I'd suggest. You're also dealing with a manufacturer that could decide to drop new prices by £10k overnight on a whim which would have a similar effect on used values?
ETA - Tesla's own PCP offering has the GFV for 4 years/40k at £30,682, so £53k in depreciation on the standard X LR.
Edited by SWoll on Tuesday 3rd November 12:36
ant1973 said:
Comcar suggests that a 7 seat model X LR with 50k on the clock after 5 years is worth £38,525 (list of £86,325).
SWoll said:
ETA - Tesla's own PCP offering has the GFV for 4 years/40k at £30,682, so £53k in depreciation on the standard X LR.
The current X has been on-sale in the UK since end of 2016, so 4 years already. I've not seen a 75D X for sub £40K let alone a 100D X (LR equivalent) for £30k. If you need/want a 7 seater EV your choices are pretty limited for the forseable future. Tesla offering to retrofit latest infotainment hardware and ongoing software updates for AP3 computer will no doubt help residuals. I wouldn't say the GVF is a real guide for residuals on EVs.
The only car I would swap our X for is either a Taycan or another X. But 3.5 years on, trading in our for £45K, than adding another £40K in for an equivalent LR X makes little sense. The main changes in the last few years has been more range (which we personally don't need/use), and better air suspension which is not worth £40K+ cost to change for us.
Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 3rd November 12:49
gangzoom said:
ant1973 said:
Comcar suggests that a 7 seat model X LR with 50k on the clock after 5 years is worth £38,525 (list of £86,325).
SWoll said:
ETA - Tesla's own PCP offering has the GFV for 4 years/40k at £30,682, so £53k in depreciation on the standard X LR.
The current X has been on-sale in the UK since end of 2016, so 4 years already. I've not seen a 75D X for sub £40K let alone a 100D X (LR equivalent).If you need/want a 7 seater EV your choices are pretty limited for the forseable future. Tesla offering to retrofit latest infotainment hardware and ongoing software updates for AP3 computer will no doubt help residuals. I wouldn't say the GVF is a real guide for residuals on EVs.
Agree on the GFV but does speak to a lack of confidence in residual values.
SWoll said:
As above in another 5 years it'll be a very old design and subject to a lot more competition both externally and internally though with the model Y cannibalising a large number of sales from both the standard and 7 seat variants I'd suspect?
Agree on the GFV but does speak to a lack of confidence in residual values.
Earliest Model S is now 6 years old for a car originally debut in 2011 so coming up to decade old design. Model 3 been around for a while in the UK with no issues on supply, cheapest used Ss are still only just sub £30K, though I notice there is one on Autotrader for £25k. Agree on the GFV but does speak to a lack of confidence in residual values.
The Y am sure is a fine car, but it doesn't have power doors, the massive windscreen. Am sure some people don't like those features, but interms of drama for a family wagon there isn't very much else on the road like the X.
aestetix1 said:
They were not very reliable to start with and will probably get worse as they age too. I wouldn't pay that for a used one even now.
Reputation is a difficult thing to obtain and the Model X did have a bad one for the first few years. Specifically the doors, general build quality and from what I understand, the rear seats too. I also know that a customer of mine has had 3! First one was returned under the lemon laws here, then he got a second and ran it for 2-3 years and recently traded it in for a newer one - the build quality has drastically improved between the ones he bought and the last one is actually pretty good. However, from what I understand though, is that they were never unreliable as such - just issues that shouldnt have been there. Any owner would have fixed those now and replacement parts (better engineered ones) are available for the doors and trunk, so they shouldnt be an issue now. Given that the underpinnings are basically the Model S, it shouldnt let you down.
Clearly thats factored into the price and the fear that the doors will fail again etc is there. However, any prospective owner who is prepared to deal with a few faults could get a bit of a bargain given the depreciation. I dont like the look of them, as the Model S is a much more cohesive design, but if you need the extra space and want a 6 / 7 seater EV SUV, there isnt anything else available at that price. Could it be the bargain it looks to be?
Thanks for the responses. I am struggling to write a cheque for 85k in general. As this would be a business loan, they are not guaranteeing the residual on a PCP either. If I could pick up a three year old for £50k I might take a different view but I just know that spending £85k on a car is OTT. The lease costs are astronomical as well e.g. 30k for two years. Something not quite right with the Tesla model but I just can’t put my finger on it.
ant1973 said:
Heres Johnny said:
ant1973 said:
If I could pick up a three year old for £50k I might take a different view
Why don't you because you can?There's a 90D 65k miles for 48,500 and a 2017 75D with 35k miles (and still some original warranty) advertiused at 53k and its been listed for nearly a month so they'd almost certainly take a bid
Heres Johnny said:
ant1973 said:
Heres Johnny said:
ant1973 said:
If I could pick up a three year old for £50k I might take a different view
Why don't you because you can?There's a 90D 65k miles for 48,500 and a 2017 75D with 35k miles (and still some original warranty) advertiused at 53k and its been listed for nearly a month so they'd almost certainly take a bid
I think you can extend the warranty by 4 years as well for c. £4k? Don't fancy owning one out of warranty given the purchase price.
aestetix1 said:
They were not very reliable to start with and will probably get worse as they age too. I wouldn't pay that for a used one even now.
But then again, reliability record has less to do with it than just deep rooted Tesla hate, right?gangzoom said:
The only car I would swap our X for is either a Taycan or another X. But 3.5 years on, trading in our for £45K, than adding another £40K in for an equivalent LR X makes little sense. The main changes in the last few years has been more range (which we personally don't need/use), and better air suspension which is not worth £40K+ cost to change for us.
Having been in a Taycan, it is properly cramped inside. I couldn't justify it against a Model S, let alone a Model X (I assume people who are looking for a Model X are looking for a huge car).It has a lot going for it, but I don't see it as a Model X competitor in any way.
ant1973 said:
Really? I could not see any on autotrader aside from a few leggy 75Ds.
I wouldn't be too worried about buying used providing you check the battery of the car hasn't been hammered by the previous owner through 'free unlimited' supercharging. As someone mentioned before most used cars should have had the initial reliability issues sorted by Tesla, there were/are quite a few, in no particular order:
1: 'Ghosting' at night, where on coming headlights would 'double' up, Tesla introduced a new front windscreen design which has sorted this.
2: New design in door latches for front doors, both passenger + drivers side on my cars has been replaced with new designs.
3: 'Shudder' on acceleration - This has been fixed with new front motor mount and revised drive shaft design
4: Drivers seat rails not secured - New design has sorted this.
5: Front suspension links will break, not if just when - New design apparently has fixed this.
6: Water leaks into the rear when opening the rear doors - This shouldn't happen, but many Tesla service centers try to claim its 'normal', its not and Tesla can sort it with new door seals.
7: The heater element has fails early - Alot of car seems to have been effected last 12 months, but not every one.
8: MCU1 screen/failure - MCU1 screen will go yellow with time, and will eventually fail. Tesla now offer a MCU2 update which is well worth doing.
9: Am sure there has been more stuff but I just cannot remember right now....
You can now see what these cars were/are classed as unreliable, they are!!
It's probably worth pointing out the current new Xs aren't issue 'free', they suffer from a new acceleration shudder which Tesla hasn't resolved yet, and the top plane of glass between the FWDs appear to fly off for no reason. Overall I would rather keep our X knowing all the stuffs that been changed than get a new one and have to go through the snagging list again - It took Tesla 2 years to finally sort out all the original problems what were present on delivery (those aren't in the list).
BUT touchwood, ours for the last 10 months or so has been fine. The interior wear/tear is actually minimal, and battery degradation is just below 5%, we are planning to keep it till at least 2025 when the battery/motor warranty runs out.
Buy new or used, regardless of the price, if you are expecting the 'perfect' car at delivery/handover espeically interms of reliability I would look else where.
Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 4th November 12:45
gangzoom said:
ant1973 said:
Really? I could not see any on autotrader aside from a few leggy 75Ds.
I wouldn't be too worried about buying used providing you check the battery of the car hasn't been hammered by the previous owner through 'free unlimited' supercharging. As someone mentioned before most used cars should have had the initial reliability issues sorted by Tesla, there were/are quite a few, in no particular order:
1: 'Ghosting' at night, where on coming headlights would 'double' up, Tesla introduced a new front windscreen design which has sorted this.
2: New design in door latches for front doors, both passenger + drivers side on my cars has been replaced with new designs.
3: 'Shudder' on acceleration - This has been fixed with new front motor mount and revised drive shaft design
4: Drivers seat rails not secured - New design has sorted this.
5: Front suspension links will break, not if just when - New design apparently has fixed this.
6: Water leaks into the rear when opening the rear doors - This shouldn't happen, but many Tesla service centers try to claim its 'normal', its not and Tesla can sort it with new door seals.
7: The heater element has fails early - Alot of car seems to have been effected last 12 months, but not every one.
8: MCU1 screen/failure - MCU1 screen will go yellow with time, and will eventually fail. Tesla now offer a MCU2 update which is well worth doing.
9: Am sure there has been more stuff but I just cannot remember right now....
You can now see what these cars were/are classed as unreliable, they are!!
It's probably worth pointing out the current new Xs aren't issue 'free', they suffer from a new acceleration shudder which Tesla hasn't resolved yet, and the top plane of glass between the FWDs appear to fly off for no reason. Overall I would rather keep our X knowing all the stuffs that been changed than get a new one and have to go through the snagging list again - It took Tesla 2 years to finally sort out all the original problems what were present on delivery (those aren't in the list).
BUT touchwood, ours for the last 10 months or so has been fine. The interior wear/tear is actually minimal, and battery degradation is just below 5%, we are planning to keep it till at least 2025 when the battery/motor warranty runs out.
Buy new or used, regardless of the price, if you are expecting the 'perfect' car at delivery/handover espeically interms of reliability I would look else where.
Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 4th November 12:45
Out of interest did you extend your warranty?
ant1973 said:
Thanks for taking the time to post that - all very helpful.
Out of interest did you extend your warranty?
Haven't decided yet. Out of interest did you extend your warranty?
I have 10 months of warranty left, so will see. I've just had the MCU2 update which really has surprised me at how 'fresh' it makes the car feel, interms of getting access to the latest infotainment software. Having Netflix access on the car seems like such a small thing, but to a 4 year old its like xmas+holidays+new year all rolled into one!! The car has now been nicked named as the '2nd living room'
.If you get one, go for the white interior, on the X it really makes the whole cabin feel even more spacious than it already is, and as you can see even with kids it wears very little, our car was 3 years old in September.
gangzoom said:
ant1973 said:
Thanks for taking the time to post that - all very helpful.
Out of interest did you extend your warranty?
Haven't decided yet. Out of interest did you extend your warranty?
I have 10 months of warranty left, so will see. I've just had the MCU2 update which really has surprised me at how 'fresh' it makes the car feel, interms of getting access to the latest infotainment software. Having Netflix access on the car seems like such a small thing, but to a 4 year old its like xmas+holidays+new year all rolled into one!! The car has now been nicked named as the '2nd living room'
.If you get one, go for the white interior, on the X it really makes the whole cabin feel even more spacious than it already is, and as you can see even with kids it wears very little, our car was 3 years old in September.
Words of caution about the Model X...
https://www.speakev.com/threads/model-x-the-worst-...
I've often thought a Model X would be perfect for me, but the horror stories really put me off. I ended up leasing an E-Tron.
https://www.speakev.com/threads/model-x-the-worst-...
I've often thought a Model X would be perfect for me, but the horror stories really put me off. I ended up leasing an E-Tron.
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