FSD / Autopilot progress

[anonymous-user]

Has anyone driven HW3 FSD in the USA yet? Any evidence HW3 improves stock autopilot?


Cool vid - Unedited Ride in Mobileye’s Camera-Driven Autonomous Vehicle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCWL0XF_f8Y

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 8th January 11:36

[gangzoom]

Looks good, nice to see no mention of Lidar, and clearly not needed. Maybe Autonomous driving is much closer than many of us think?

Anyone on Twitter with an interest in AP should follow green (@greentheonly): https://twitter.com/greentheonly?s=09

This guy regularly uploads raw AP footage with processing data. His latest efforts show the most recent Tesla 'FSD preview' which Elon hyped up was no more than old AP coding which had been running on ALL AP 2.0 HW cars for ages, its just Tesla for some reason is limiting software implementation to HW 3.0 cars giving the appearance of progress in software due to new HW when there hasn't been any

Still no evidence Tesla is deploying any AP software code which is leveraging the HW 3.0 AP chip. What that means who knows, maybe Tesla is taking their time to develop more mature software codes for HW 3.0, or maybe the AP HW 3.0 chip isn't as great as Elon told everyone.......Past actions would suggest its the latter.

[anonymous-user]

Interesting twitter account thanks! Followed.

re HW3 specific code, wasn't the cone visualisation the first feature that relied on HW3 hardware? Or are you saying was this was software, limited to HW3 cars?

Musk confirmed on twitter pre release, that the FSD preview was software only and should be available for any HW. Which conflicts with the cone thing, as if HW3 not needed to visualise bins, presumable not needed to visualise cones either.

In which case I still don't know if I have HW3 or not

[gangzoom]

Sambucket said:

re HW3 specific code, wasn't the cone visualisation the first feature that relied on HW3 hardware?

If you follow Greens account your see even AP2.0 can 'see' cones (and alot more), its just for some reason Tesla have made them visible on the user interface of HW3 cars, the only reason for that is to con people into thinking Tesla is progress with FSD and HW3 when in reality currently HW3 adds nothing to usability.

This is confirmed really by the fact even our AP2.0 car has 'smart summon', which incidentally is frankly scary, seeing a 2.5ton SUV pilot it self with no one in the driver seat....





Green has also called out some of other Elon's BS, like MCU 2.0 hardware been difficult to retrofit to older cars - its apparently not hard to do at all, and requires no new wiring looms its essentially plug and plug. Or the fact the HW3 CPU isn't ready to be retrofitted to MCU 1 car, which again Green has done using eBay parts, again plug and play. The reason Tesla aren't offering existing owners retrofits is clearly to try and drive people to upgrade their cars to new ones, which is 100% opposite of Tesla's mission statement for 'sustainable transport'.

Tesla is a great company, but the CEO comes out with stuff which is just not true, luckily there are plenty of skilled people on the web who can call out his BS for everyone to see.

Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 8th January 18:20

[gangzoom]

https://twitter.com/thirdrowtesla/status/121544659...

Tesla 'vision' is clearly very good already, its impressive it can 'see' the two cars pulling in behind the stopped school bus.

But clearly the processing has a long long way to go, the car repeatedly starts driving on the WRONG side of the road because the central line markings disappears for a second, but the software is too dumb to remember just before the lane divider disappeared which side of the road it should be on, to just the fact it shouldn't drive on the wrong side of road without good reason.


https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1113138428...

The limitations of AP is clearly now software not hardware - Tesla is still not using any of the additional processing power in the HW3.0 chips.

Has Tesla got better software teams than Google? When you consider DeepMind has already published another Nature paper on AI and we are barely a week into 2020.....seems very unlikely Tesla can beat Google in the software area, but we'll wait and see.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1799-6

Edited by gangzoom on Friday 10th January 06:21

[Heres Johnny]

The elephant in the room for Tesla at the moment is striking the balance between FSD feature progress and the massive headache and cost of upgrading the legacy fleet to also be able to use it as soon as the capabilities require it. I imagine they're somewhat between a rock and a hard place.

What I've seen a few comment on is the reliability of the detection - someone showed the cars coming towards them and the system missing (or at least failing to display) significant numbers of car - this could be a performance issue where the pecking order of processing just runs out of steam and aborts that pass and starts on the next series of images. More grunt could just mean more of the code gets processed each pass. Of course when things are fairly tame the whole lot can get processed, its when things get busy that the performance starts to struggle.

And of course, its not just cost, they don't actually have a means of upgrading HW2 and MCU1 cars to the latest spec at the moment and with wiring changes, camera changes (at least with respect to the filters applied in the camera), various redundency additions coming in with HW2.5 I imagine the HW2 upgrade is massive when it does come.

[gangzoom]

Heres Johnny said:

And of course, its not just cost, they don't actually have a means of upgrading HW2 and MCU1 cars to the latest spec at the moment and with wiring changes, camera changes (at least with respect to the filters applied in the camera), various redundency additions coming in with HW2.5 I imagine the HW2 upgrade is massive when it does come.

If you follow Greens Twitter account you will see MCU1 to MCU2 is plug and play, no wiring changes needed. Green has also dropped HW3 CPU into a 2.5 car with MCU1 with no issues. I believe his about to do the same with AP2.0 car. Hardware isn't the issue.

The whole need to change wiring etc for MCU or AP upgrades is another Elon untruth, likely designed to hide the fact the AP code is actually no more advanced today compared to 12 months interms of actual prediction ability - they have refined elements of it, but no real big leap since NAO was introduced. If you are cynical you can say its all about keeping the lie of Autonomous day event live, by pretending HW 3.0 has helped to progress FSD when it hasn't.

If you dropped a MCU2 and HW 3.0 hardware into our MCU1 HW 2.0 car right now there will be zero difference in FSD function. Even the traffic light/cone visualisation is been done by HW2.0 cars, Tesla are simply refusing to show the data on the user side to make it look like HW 3.0 is more advanced.

Edited by gangzoom on Friday 10th January 09:05

[RobDickinson]

I dont think HW2 has the video resolution processing powers to do it reliably though which is why it needs the 720p feeds from the HW3 processing

but obviously internet experts on PH know better.

[gangzoom]

RobDickinson said:

I dont think HW2 has the video resolution processing powers to do it reliably though which is why it needs the 720p feeds from the HW3 processing

but obviously internet experts on PH know better.

I take it you haven't actually looked at Green's Twitter account. Its a bit sad you cannot see past Elon's inability to tell the truth.

Edited by gangzoom on Friday 10th January 22:38

[anonymous-user]

How can you be sure there is not more to the story. It does seem yoru general distrust of Musk is clouding the picture a bit.

[RobDickinson]

I totally forgot Elon lies about everything and then hundreds of engineers working on this to make it safe and useful know nothing compared to that guy on twitter