EV used prices (bottom of the market?)
Discussion
I’ve been keeping half an eye on used EVs (a Tesla Model 3 looks like it would tick a few boxes for me) - but interested in peoples thoughts on where prices might still be heading.
There seems to have been some big price corrections over the last few months. Using one of those Autotrader price tracking extensions for Chrome, some of the price drops from dealers on older stock is a bit of an eye opener.
That said, whilst prices are looking rather tempting - I’m just wondering how much more of a drop we’ll see on these types of vehicles and whether it’s worth sitting it out a bit longer? Or if the market for these sorts of cars have found its level?
There seems to have been some big price corrections over the last few months. Using one of those Autotrader price tracking extensions for Chrome, some of the price drops from dealers on older stock is a bit of an eye opener.
That said, whilst prices are looking rather tempting - I’m just wondering how much more of a drop we’ll see on these types of vehicles and whether it’s worth sitting it out a bit longer? Or if the market for these sorts of cars have found its level?
Edited by jonflat2 on Tuesday 30th April 09:33
A little way to go I think, then there will be an explosion in Model 3s wazzing round rslightly opey areas with those window aero things on driven by folk who said they would never have an EV as they couldnt get their head round that they were 50 grand plus, when they are 10 to 15, they will buy them, others will see and want a piece of that action.
E-Tron Audis look good value too.
A friend had an early-ish Model S, he sold it as it was starting to get a bit eccentric and took an age to get going in the morning, a bit like an old laptop.
My concern is the extent to which Tesla etc will continue to support older cars and where you will take it if the brains start playing up... I'm not worried about the batteries particularly, more the other bits. I'd want a comprehensive warranty, it will be interesting to see the prospects for EV "sheds".
A friend had an early-ish Model S, he sold it as it was starting to get a bit eccentric and took an age to get going in the morning, a bit like an old laptop.
My concern is the extent to which Tesla etc will continue to support older cars and where you will take it if the brains start playing up... I'm not worried about the batteries particularly, more the other bits. I'd want a comprehensive warranty, it will be interesting to see the prospects for EV "sheds".
Edited by Robertb on Tuesday 30th April 09:51
Wills2 said:
It's not an asset class, there is no bottom of the market, just like a Mondeo they will keep dropping as they age and get superseded by newer models.
Indeed. It wasn't that long ago that a 10 year old run of the mill mid-sized ICE (eg. Mondeos, 3-series, Volvo, etc) with 100k+ miles on it was only worth a Grand or so. I can't see that EVs will be any different.Cheap Supermini sized EVs will surely find a niche from city dwellers who can live with public charging as a charge will last a few weeks.
I collected an E-Niro from a customer last week.
They said they were fed up with owning an EV
They got stuck waiting at Rugby services for 1hr 40mins for a charger, whilst loads of free Tesla chargers.
So I don't think everyone is "lovin it"
So maybe they'll drop some more.
They said they were fed up with owning an EV
They got stuck waiting at Rugby services for 1hr 40mins for a charger, whilst loads of free Tesla chargers.
So I don't think everyone is "lovin it"
So maybe they'll drop some more.
Edited by Trevor555 on Tuesday 30th April 10:54
The bottom of the market is going to occur at that 8 year mark, where the battery warranty expires and they effectively become sheds that are run until they break and then good only for parts.
As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
J1990 said:
The bottom of the market is going to occur at that 8 year mark, where the battery warranty expires and they effectively become sheds that are run until they break and then good only for parts.
As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
£35k to £10k valuation in 3 years.....................................WHAT!As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
Paid £19k for my Model 3 LR with 65k miles in Feb this year from a private seller.
Rare as it has a factory towbar (cannot retrofit these).
Looks like i'd be lucky to get £18k now 5k miles later.
It's saved me £400 in "fuel" in that time, so that helps soften the blow
Hoping to run it for the remainder of the 8 year/120k miles drivetrain warranty (end of 2027) and then either continue to run it or swap it for a newer one, at which point mine should still be worth £10k-£12k or so.
Rare as it has a factory towbar (cannot retrofit these).
Looks like i'd be lucky to get £18k now 5k miles later.
It's saved me £400 in "fuel" in that time, so that helps soften the blow
Hoping to run it for the remainder of the 8 year/120k miles drivetrain warranty (end of 2027) and then either continue to run it or swap it for a newer one, at which point mine should still be worth £10k-£12k or so.
Truckosaurus said:
Wills2 said:
It's not an asset class, there is no bottom of the market, just like a Mondeo they will keep dropping as they age and get superseded by newer models.
Indeed. It wasn't that long ago that a 10 year old run of the mill mid-sized ICE (eg. Mondeos, 3-series, Volvo, etc) with 100k+ miles on it was only worth a Grand or so. I can't see that EVs will be any different.Cheap Supermini sized EVs will surely find a niche from city dwellers who can live with public charging as a charge will last a few weeks.
A used tesla module will cost you about £800 (last time I looked)
romft123 said:
J1990 said:
The bottom of the market is going to occur at that 8 year mark, where the battery warranty expires and they effectively become sheds that are run until they break and then good only for parts.
As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
£35k to £10k valuation in 3 years.....................................WHAT!As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.
Realistically, it costs what it costs and I'll hope prices stay relatively strong but with EV tech moving quickly the future values are somewhat of a mystery. I'd like to think the finance companies' GFV's aren't out by a margin of 80% though and I should get some savings.
You do need to ask how much will you potentially save on fuel, VED, and maintenance costs in comparison and how does that offset any potential additional depreciation over the time you plan to own the car?
There's also the question of which you prefer? Give a scenario where an EV cost more overall to run than an ICE (even without depreciation) I'd still pick the EV for daily duties as for me they are just so much better at it.
There's also the question of which you prefer? Give a scenario where an EV cost more overall to run than an ICE (even without depreciation) I'd still pick the EV for daily duties as for me they are just so much better at it.
I must admit they are starting to look attractive. The poster above who bought the 65k one for £19k and plans to run for the drivetrain warranty and either sell or keep illustrates how they can now be a pretty cheap A-B car for a 3-4 year timeframe, if you plan to the traditional buy outright (or part loan, cash) and sell later on vs paying, what, £6-8k per annum on a lease for a new one.
VeeReihenmotor6 said:
I must admit they are starting to look attractive. The poster above who bought the 65k one for £19k and plans to run for the drivetrain warranty and either sell or keep illustrates how they can now be a pretty cheap A-B car for a 3-4 year timeframe, if you plan to the traditional buy outright (or part loan, cash) and sell later on vs paying, what, £6-8k per annum on a lease for a new one.
Mine was 50% equity from my prev car. 50% on a 0% balance transfer (with tiny fee). So very little in interest. £250/month for 3 years after the 50% deposit.On Octopus at 7.5p/kwh it's roughly 5x cheaper than my previous car in "fuel", and that was a hybrid that did 60mpg. It's 10x cheaper than my BMW M2 was to fuel.
I'm assuming in 3 years time when it's fully paid off it'll be worth around £10k (seems pessimistic given Model S prices though), and being a Long Range with dual motors and 400bhp+ i'm thinking there'll always be a market for them, even if just for the drivetrain.
So about £3k/year in depreciation i reckon. Pretty much what i'd expect on a ~£20k car.
54k miles over 3 yrs at 60mpg in the petrol hybrid is £6k in petrol.
54k miles over 3 yrs assuming 95% at home and 5% on public chargers (45p/kwh at tesla superchargers) is £1.5k
So across the 3 yrs there's a £4.5k saving right there, or roughly £120/month.
What's nice is that rather than having a petrol "budget" each month i've just added £30/month onto the elec direct debit, and then i don't really think about fuel as an extra thing i need to budget for.
TBH even if the costs were the same i'd still have the EV. I just prefer it and it's more convenient for my usage as all of my regular journeys are sub-200 miles and i can "fuel" it from my own supply at home rather than having to go to a garage and wait for a pump while Doris does her weekly shop
Though longer journeys are not hard either. I did 1300 miles in one week up to Scotland in the Model 3 last month.
Edited by LowTread on Tuesday 30th April 13:26
That's good to know LowTread. I am one of the typical people who does the odd longer trip and keep putting off the switch to EV becuase "i can't be bothered to charge enroute". For everyday driving though they make perfect sense for me and the convienence to charge from home and forget about petrol is a no brainer.
I like the model 3 but wish they did it as an estate from the beginning as I have dogs and kids etc.
I like the model 3 but wish they did it as an estate from the beginning as I have dogs and kids etc.
VeeReihenmotor6 said:
That's good to know LowTread. I am one of the typical people who does the odd longer trip and keep putting off the switch to EV becuase "i can't be bothered to charge enroute". For everyday driving though they make perfect sense for me and the convienence to charge from home and forget about petrol is a no brainer.
I like the model 3 but wish they did it as an estate from the beginning as I have dogs and kids etc.
More of a cat person myself, but i do have two quite lanky kids.I like the model 3 but wish they did it as an estate from the beginning as I have dogs and kids etc.
Towbar means i can carry bikes and the two "boots" came in handy in scotland.
I take your point though. I don't get why first tesla had to be a saloon. Guessing american market perhaps?
I've been watching prices of i3 for a while.
A lot seem to have lost a big slice in the last year.
Likewise short range leaves are cheaper than chips now.
Teslas are starting to get near £10k.
But that's a 10 year old car with no warranty and a lot of 'software'.
The Kona can be down to about £15k now, for a car with decent range and only 3 years old.
In 2 years time, there should be a whole lot more Konas about which means a 5 year old one might be even cheaper.
Or there might be a lot of demand, because loads of people will want them?
I think a lot of aging short range EVs might have a fair bit more value to lose.
But, I think the values of many used IC cars are in for a total kicking.
Some petrol cars which are £25k now could be quite unattractive in 2 or 3 years.
The big thing is, you can't see very far ahead.
The 'rules' of depreciation and residual value are in the bin.
Game-Changing events are still havign effects rippling through the system.
It's possible new EVs could get significantly cheaper.
Personally I think buying a £15k Kona and writing it off over 5 years looks like value.
Buying a £10k Tesla, I think you might have to write its value down over not many years, so the cost per year could be more?
As with some other things, it helps to know when to sell and to be lucky.
A lot seem to have lost a big slice in the last year.
Likewise short range leaves are cheaper than chips now.
Teslas are starting to get near £10k.
But that's a 10 year old car with no warranty and a lot of 'software'.
The Kona can be down to about £15k now, for a car with decent range and only 3 years old.
In 2 years time, there should be a whole lot more Konas about which means a 5 year old one might be even cheaper.
Or there might be a lot of demand, because loads of people will want them?
I think a lot of aging short range EVs might have a fair bit more value to lose.
But, I think the values of many used IC cars are in for a total kicking.
Some petrol cars which are £25k now could be quite unattractive in 2 or 3 years.
The big thing is, you can't see very far ahead.
The 'rules' of depreciation and residual value are in the bin.
Game-Changing events are still havign effects rippling through the system.
It's possible new EVs could get significantly cheaper.
Personally I think buying a £15k Kona and writing it off over 5 years looks like value.
Buying a £10k Tesla, I think you might have to write its value down over not many years, so the cost per year could be more?
As with some other things, it helps to know when to sell and to be lucky.
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