Car market 2024
Discussion
Report from Autotrader last week.
The new car market is expected to return to a 'push' market with supply increasing and a large number of new model EVs being introduced. This will lead to discounts and finance deals but with wide variation between manufacturers and models. Overall the market is expected to increase by 4% from 1.89m to 1.97m.
The used market will remain buoyant for some years being affected by the 3m 'lost' vehicles from 2020-22. The current stock level is 2% above December last year but demand is up by 10.7%. There is currently a lot of re-pricing going on which is probably unnecessary because of the expected uptick in January (this part reads like marketing).
The new car market is expected to return to a 'push' market with supply increasing and a large number of new model EVs being introduced. This will lead to discounts and finance deals but with wide variation between manufacturers and models. Overall the market is expected to increase by 4% from 1.89m to 1.97m.
The used market will remain buoyant for some years being affected by the 3m 'lost' vehicles from 2020-22. The current stock level is 2% above December last year but demand is up by 10.7%. There is currently a lot of re-pricing going on which is probably unnecessary because of the expected uptick in January (this part reads like marketing).
Nearly 18000 posts in this one perhaps belies the title, which is really all about the market
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
The AT, and many other reports are scrutinised in some detail, and disdain, or with data supporting what is said from many a helpful dealer. I'd try there for both thought and comment.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
The AT, and many other reports are scrutinised in some detail, and disdain, or with data supporting what is said from many a helpful dealer. I'd try there for both thought and comment.
Sounds a bit like Autotrader talking their book.
Painting a rosy picture of the market so people don't keep holding out and waiting for prices to continue to fall.
How do they quantify demand by the way. Is it Autotrader web-traffic? Enquiries sent? Either way, I suspect that's not actual demand.
Painting a rosy picture of the market so people don't keep holding out and waiting for prices to continue to fall.
How do they quantify demand by the way. Is it Autotrader web-traffic? Enquiries sent? Either way, I suspect that's not actual demand.
Several poster on other threads have banged about it being lost 'transactions,' not vehicles. 
Personally, I think it's a red herring; cars now last a lot longer in better condition, and the latest youngsters are a demographic less interested in driving. It will have little overall except for traders who talk 'up' values.
Personally, I think it's a red herring; cars now last a lot longer in better condition, and the latest youngsters are a demographic less interested in driving. It will have little overall except for traders who talk 'up' values.
Report out today from SMMT.
There were 1.9m cars sold in 2023, up 17.9% from last year but still 17.7% below the high of 2016 with 2.6m vehicles sold. This level of sales is not expected to be seen again because of home working, government policies and a lack of affordable entry level vehicles.
Petrol sales remained flat around 1m. EV sales increased by 50k to 315k, but this was still below the 324k prediction. Only 1 in 11 sales go to a private buyer.
There are around 100 models of EV currently available with 30-40 more models expected this year. They are predicting that sales will rise to 439k, representing a market share of 22.3%, up from the current 16.5%
There were 1.9m cars sold in 2023, up 17.9% from last year but still 17.7% below the high of 2016 with 2.6m vehicles sold. This level of sales is not expected to be seen again because of home working, government policies and a lack of affordable entry level vehicles.
Petrol sales remained flat around 1m. EV sales increased by 50k to 315k, but this was still below the 324k prediction. Only 1 in 11 sales go to a private buyer.
There are around 100 models of EV currently available with 30-40 more models expected this year. They are predicting that sales will rise to 439k, representing a market share of 22.3%, up from the current 16.5%
Overall car market is up 5.5% vs the same time last year, however the growth is being driven heavily by fleet buyers and motability customers. Retail customers are keeping their cars longer and that portion of the market is down 11% versus last year.
EV sales are up 10% but it is all being driven by fleet. Retail EV sales are -10%.
Next year you'll see more EV products being pushed at more aggressive prices, including I am sure more 0%.
OEMs will need to manage their mix on hybrid/petrol/diesel versus EV sales, so although there will be good offers on non-EV products, all the deals will be on EV due to ZEV mandate legislation.
EV sales are up 10% but it is all being driven by fleet. Retail EV sales are -10%.
Next year you'll see more EV products being pushed at more aggressive prices, including I am sure more 0%.
OEMs will need to manage their mix on hybrid/petrol/diesel versus EV sales, so although there will be good offers on non-EV products, all the deals will be on EV due to ZEV mandate legislation.
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