What's holding, dropping or rising?
Discussion
We've had the "Will the market crash?" thread running since March 2022, which has been great in terms of discussing economic factors, and other stuff, that might influence where the market is heading. However, the elements I've found valuable are actual examples of price changes and input from the trade as to what's happening in each market segment.
This thread is intended to focus on current trends rather than predictions. Input from those that have been tracking prices for certain makes/models would be great please. Maybe links to PH classifieds highlighting any bargains where prices have 'crashed'.
Hopefully this thread will be helpful to potential buyers of anything from family cars, sports & prestige to classics.
To kick off, I bought a three year old Volvo XC40 T5 last month. I wanted a pure petrol model that was fully loaded and 2020 was the last year before hybrids and electric widget shortages that impacted specs. I think, for these reasons, prices are still holding firm. The Volvo dealer also pointed out that their market is mostly older people who are less affected by economic tightening, which made me feel great.
Now looking for a sports or GT as our second car. Appears prices aren't dropping yet but not much is selling either in this segment. Will have to be patient as this purchase is a desire rather than a need.
This thread is intended to focus on current trends rather than predictions. Input from those that have been tracking prices for certain makes/models would be great please. Maybe links to PH classifieds highlighting any bargains where prices have 'crashed'.
Hopefully this thread will be helpful to potential buyers of anything from family cars, sports & prestige to classics.
To kick off, I bought a three year old Volvo XC40 T5 last month. I wanted a pure petrol model that was fully loaded and 2020 was the last year before hybrids and electric widget shortages that impacted specs. I think, for these reasons, prices are still holding firm. The Volvo dealer also pointed out that their market is mostly older people who are less affected by economic tightening, which made me feel great.
Now looking for a sports or GT as our second car. Appears prices aren't dropping yet but not much is selling either in this segment. Will have to be patient as this purchase is a desire rather than a need.
The nearly new, low mileage Volvo XC40’s I was tracking were almost at list, a touch over £30k, then dropped to around £26k between May and Jul 2023 as new supply came online (Volvo website started showing 4-6 weeks delivery for new cars).
Hasn’t really shifted since then (writing in Sept 2023), so I figured this will be the new normal for a while.
So pulled the trigger on a cheapish 2yr lease on a Peugeot 3008 instead (total cost less than 20% of list price, for 2yrs, 5k miles a year). This is the first deal for a family SUV I’ve seen since starting to monitor the cheap leases thread in Feb 2023.
It’s also the first lease I’ve ever taken, but given the market, I figured I’d let the leasing company bear the financial risks, if over supply in the next few years really pummels residuals. With proper supply, I could easily see ‘my’ £26k Volvo XC40 dropping more than the cost of the lease in depreciation. Plus savings accounts are paying out 5% to 6% so missing out on £1.3k of interest on top if brought with cash. Sure not the same car, so not exactly comparing apples to apples, but a useful comparison all the same.
Will look at my options again once that lease is up, but happy for now.
Hasn’t really shifted since then (writing in Sept 2023), so I figured this will be the new normal for a while.
So pulled the trigger on a cheapish 2yr lease on a Peugeot 3008 instead (total cost less than 20% of list price, for 2yrs, 5k miles a year). This is the first deal for a family SUV I’ve seen since starting to monitor the cheap leases thread in Feb 2023.
It’s also the first lease I’ve ever taken, but given the market, I figured I’d let the leasing company bear the financial risks, if over supply in the next few years really pummels residuals. With proper supply, I could easily see ‘my’ £26k Volvo XC40 dropping more than the cost of the lease in depreciation. Plus savings accounts are paying out 5% to 6% so missing out on £1.3k of interest on top if brought with cash. Sure not the same car, so not exactly comparing apples to apples, but a useful comparison all the same.
Will look at my options again once that lease is up, but happy for now.
Edited by wyson on Tuesday 3rd October 12:16
I've been looking at small, fairly newish hot hatches over the past year. In particular Fiesta ST, Hyundai i20N, Mini JCW.
It's really only the last couple of weeks that I've seen ST prices drop and then not by much. There are plenty around and it seems not many are selling.
The Hyundai is still in very short supply. Cheapest 2021 cars are still £23k with 2022 ones being £25k. There's a dealer in Worcester offering brand new for just under that with a finance contribution but when I called them its a 9 month wait and they have no demonstrator to test drive. I'd be interested to see when they hit £20k but I think it'll be a while yet.
The Mini seems to be holding up as well as ever unless it's a poorly specced example.
I'm also watching MX5 ND2's at the moment and had expected them to drop as we come out of summer. But they are still £20k for a 184bhp 2.0 sport nav+ which seems very steep.
It's really only the last couple of weeks that I've seen ST prices drop and then not by much. There are plenty around and it seems not many are selling.
The Hyundai is still in very short supply. Cheapest 2021 cars are still £23k with 2022 ones being £25k. There's a dealer in Worcester offering brand new for just under that with a finance contribution but when I called them its a 9 month wait and they have no demonstrator to test drive. I'd be interested to see when they hit £20k but I think it'll be a while yet.
The Mini seems to be holding up as well as ever unless it's a poorly specced example.
I'm also watching MX5 ND2's at the moment and had expected them to drop as we come out of summer. But they are still £20k for a 184bhp 2.0 sport nav+ which seems very steep.
ChrisH72 said:
I've been looking at small, fairly newish hot hatches over the past year. In particular Fiesta ST, Hyundai i20N, Mini JCW.
It's really only the last couple of weeks that I've seen ST prices drop and then not by much. There are plenty around and it seems not many are selling.
The Hyundai is still in very short supply. Cheapest 2021 cars are still £23k with 2022 ones being £25k. There's a dealer in Worcester offering brand new for just under that with a finance contribution but when I called them its a 9 month wait and they have no demonstrator to test drive. I'd be interested to see when they hit £20k but I think it'll be a while yet.
The Mini seems to be holding up as well as ever unless it's a poorly specced example.
I'm also watching MX5 ND2's at the moment and had expected them to drop as we come out of summer. But they are still £20k for a 184bhp 2.0 sport nav+ which seems very steep.
Countryman JCW was on my shortlist. Holding firm, perhaps because manufacturing has ended and its replacement will be hybrid.It's really only the last couple of weeks that I've seen ST prices drop and then not by much. There are plenty around and it seems not many are selling.
The Hyundai is still in very short supply. Cheapest 2021 cars are still £23k with 2022 ones being £25k. There's a dealer in Worcester offering brand new for just under that with a finance contribution but when I called them its a 9 month wait and they have no demonstrator to test drive. I'd be interested to see when they hit £20k but I think it'll be a while yet.
The Mini seems to be holding up as well as ever unless it's a poorly specced example.
I'm also watching MX5 ND2's at the moment and had expected them to drop as we come out of summer. But they are still £20k for a 184bhp 2.0 sport nav+ which seems very steep.
ZX10R NIN said:
With Volvo offering 11k off of their hybrids & EV's, your pure ICE car will hold value for a while compared to those.
I think this is just supply coming back, and aren’t hybrid and EV the only options now? Also 11k discount is for their most expensive cars, you can’t get that much on a XC40. Volvo did great deals and discounts pre covid, so unless they issued a Merc type statement saying otherwise, I think they are going back down that road again. Im definitely hoping for 2 years of plentiful supply to bring back the days of nearly new cars with 40% off list etc.
Edited by wyson on Friday 29th September 22:24
2019/2020 Leon Cupras and Golf GTIs were stubbornly high for an extremely long time. Definitely some softening there.
Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
carparkno1 said:
2019/2020 Leon Cupras and Golf GTIs were stubbornly high for an extremely long time. Definitely some softening there.
Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
The whole German hot hatch market of the generation is just ridiculous prices. Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
Golfs and 1 series M-lites are just silly.
ChrisH72 said:
I'm also watching MX5 ND2's at the moment and had expected them to drop as we come out of summer. But they are still £20k for a 184bhp 2.0 sport nav+ which seems very steep.
That's encouraging as a current owner. I bought my 2018 (68) ND2 2 litre SportNav+ with 7200 miles and had change from £20k. 
It's got the Eibach lowering springs and the body add-on trim extras too!
M2 Comps are dropping back.
It wasnt that long ago that a 2020 car with sensible miles and both packs from a BMW main dealer would have been £42-43K.
Main BMW dealer near to me had one with 24K miles, both packs and in Laguna Beach Blue for £36,995.
In fairness it didnt sit long.
Insurance seems to be a problem on those, and i suspect they've previously attracted younger drivers who are now baulking at the premiums / renewals.
It wasnt that long ago that a 2020 car with sensible miles and both packs from a BMW main dealer would have been £42-43K.
Main BMW dealer near to me had one with 24K miles, both packs and in Laguna Beach Blue for £36,995.
In fairness it didnt sit long.
Insurance seems to be a problem on those, and i suspect they've previously attracted younger drivers who are now baulking at the premiums / renewals.
Deep Thought said:
M2 Comps are dropping back.
It wasnt that long ago that a 2020 car with sensible miles and both packs from a BMW main dealer would have been £42-43K.
Main BMW dealer near to me had one with 24K miles, both packs and in Laguna Beach Blue for £36,995.
In fairness it didnt sit long.
Insurance seems to be a problem on those, and i suspect they've previously attracted younger drivers who are now baulking at the premiums / renewals.
On the M2 forum you’ll get a tidy comp for ~£32k. It wasnt that long ago that a 2020 car with sensible miles and both packs from a BMW main dealer would have been £42-43K.
Main BMW dealer near to me had one with 24K miles, both packs and in Laguna Beach Blue for £36,995.
In fairness it didnt sit long.
Insurance seems to be a problem on those, and i suspect they've previously attracted younger drivers who are now baulking at the premiums / renewals.
OG LCIs around ~£28k.
Autotrader valuation today said trade in value of ~£25k for my M2 which is a massive drop from last month.
Majority of owners are older men who seem to have been hit by interest rate increases on mortgages and loans so need to cut back costs. Think all luxury cars are the same now. Insurance plays a part but I do have to wonder how insurance going from £600 to £1200 on a M car is such a big deal.
Anything big.
Anything classic.
Anything odd.
The market for disposable income toys is drying up, the same number of cars chasing fewer buyers.
Recent classic auctions have resembled a wake. Lots not selling then being negotiated at or near the tob bid but below reserve.
SUV’s becoming less socially acceptable & anything expensive to repair.
People are fearful of the next 24 months & no-one is going to splurge on that Range Rover or E-Type that fancy just yet, wait & see, may pick up a bargain next year…
And the slump starts.
All IMHO of course.
Anything classic.
Anything odd.
The market for disposable income toys is drying up, the same number of cars chasing fewer buyers.
Recent classic auctions have resembled a wake. Lots not selling then being negotiated at or near the tob bid but below reserve.
SUV’s becoming less socially acceptable & anything expensive to repair.
People are fearful of the next 24 months & no-one is going to splurge on that Range Rover or E-Type that fancy just yet, wait & see, may pick up a bargain next year…
And the slump starts.
All IMHO of course.
CG2020UK said:
but I do have to wonder how insurance going from £600 to £1200 on a M car is such a big deal
It all adds up, alongside energy up maybe £800 a year, food £1,000, mortgage maybe another £2,000… and what became a treat fun car has become something eating into other stuff.Ie, I’d sooner give up an M2 to save £600, than live in a colder house, or buy cheaper food, or whatever else.
I like cars. But with a family to look after and other stuff too, the car can take a break for a bit till things improve.
Mr Whippy said:
CG2020UK said:
but I do have to wonder how insurance going from £600 to £1200 on a M car is such a big deal
It all adds up, alongside energy up maybe £800 a year, food £1,000, mortgage maybe another £2,000… and what became a treat fun car has become something eating into other stuff.Ie, I’d sooner give up an M2 to save £600, than live in a colder house, or buy cheaper food, or whatever else.
I like cars. But with a family to look after and other stuff too, the car can take a break for a bit till things improve.
I have no mortgage, no kids (that I know of) so I'll keep my M car thanks!
carparkno1 said:
2019/2020 Leon Cupras and Golf GTIs were stubbornly high for an extremely long time. Definitely some softening there.
Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
Wow, no kidding. Some real softening on the Leon’s. Also some on mk 8 R’s. A few ‘21 <20k miles coming up at 33 rather than 35, but they understandably don’t last long. Saying that the mk8 GTI has started to drop a bit as well. Fancied one of the clubsports but can’t even get a dealer to consider me right now as they believe it’s a minimum 9 month wait for one!
CG2020UK said:
On the M2 forum you’ll get a tidy comp for ~£32k.
You can yes. I was talking about 2020 AUCs and / or reputable dealer sold cars though.CG2020UK said:
Majority of owners are older men who seem to have been hit by interest rate increases on mortgages and loans so need to cut back costs. Think all luxury cars are the same now. Insurance plays a part but I do have to wonder how insurance going from £600 to £1200 on a M car is such a big deal.
I think if you have a closer look on the forum groups many are run by people in their 20s...."Anyone found there M2 comp insurance doubled or even tripled for this year.
Paying £700 now and cheapest I can get from anywhere on comparison sites is £2500 with some direct sites not quoting.
12 years driving / 11 years NCB / No points "
"Why has our M2 insurance gone bezerk this year? Does it have anything to do with the new model out?
My best quote is £2200 up from £700 last year. "
"I was doing quotes about 2 weeks ago and getting about 1.2k on a 67 plate dct. I’m 21 with 4 years NCB
I tried a quote today and cheapest I got is 10k"
"My insurance is up for renewal and I’ve been quoted £2900 from AdrianFlux, I was with them the past 4 years with my m140i from new. I have 9 years no claims and I’m 27…"
Mr Tidy said:
Mr Whippy said:
CG2020UK said:
but I do have to wonder how insurance going from £600 to £1200 on a M car is such a big deal
It all adds up, alongside energy up maybe £800 a year, food £1,000, mortgage maybe another £2,000… and what became a treat fun car has become something eating into other stuff.Ie, I’d sooner give up an M2 to save £600, than live in a colder house, or buy cheaper food, or whatever else.
I like cars. But with a family to look after and other stuff too, the car can take a break for a bit till things improve.
I have no mortgage, no kids (that I know of) so I'll keep my M car thanks!
Got mine renewed at £620.
Can see how a £2K or £3K quote would make people baulk though
I'm keeping an eye on 2020 M2C prices as its maybe an option down the line. Prices down on those might encourage me to make a move at some point.
Edited by Deep Thought on Monday 2nd October 09:21
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