Bad decision to buy right now?
Discussion
Hi,
Looking at replacing my daily driver with a MK7 GTI, 2 years ago similar models were 5k cheaper.
Given we all can't predict the future, am I fool for buying something now, should wait? Are people expecting high prices to remain?
Got the itch for a new car, having swapped to a older Swift Sport at the start of covid. However, now I'm driving much more frequently again, missing some comforts, but obviously not wanting to lose half the value of the car in 12 months.
Looking at replacing my daily driver with a MK7 GTI, 2 years ago similar models were 5k cheaper.
Given we all can't predict the future, am I fool for buying something now, should wait? Are people expecting high prices to remain?
Got the itch for a new car, having swapped to a older Swift Sport at the start of covid. However, now I'm driving much more frequently again, missing some comforts, but obviously not wanting to lose half the value of the car in 12 months.
RussNC said:
Hi,
Looking at replacing my daily driver with a MK7 GTI, 2 years ago similar models were 5k cheaper.
Given we all can't predict the future, am I fool for buying something now, should wait? Are people expecting high prices to remain?
Got the itch for a new car, having swapped to a older Swift Sport at the start of covid. However, now I'm driving much more frequently again, missing some comforts, but obviously not wanting to lose half the value of the car in 12 months.
Why wait, what's the worse that can happen? Crack on & get the car that you want. You only come this way once.Looking at replacing my daily driver with a MK7 GTI, 2 years ago similar models were 5k cheaper.
Given we all can't predict the future, am I fool for buying something now, should wait? Are people expecting high prices to remain?
Got the itch for a new car, having swapped to a older Swift Sport at the start of covid. However, now I'm driving much more frequently again, missing some comforts, but obviously not wanting to lose half the value of the car in 12 months.
Yes things will most likely go back to normal (cause is temporary)
No it won't be that soon (chip shortage will take 12-24 months to sort)
No it won't be a sudden drop (new cars will slowly start to catch up with demand, won't be like a stock market crash)
So bottom line you could be waiting a year or two if you hold off, vs perhaps slightly greater depreciation than 'normal' if you buy now and keep for 3-5 years.
Other thing is, if you get a Mk7 Golf GTi it may hold value a tad better than similar cars, since the journalists have decided that the Mk8 Golf is sub-par (like the Mk6 after the Mk5).
Mirroring all of the above - I had my old car for 12 years and always threatened to get a new one. Eventually after the past couple of years I just said sod it, and got a new one.
Compared to when I was looking February time, they've gone up about 3k (Hyundai i30n fastback) but they aren't falling off a cliff price wise. Go take a look and enjoy it!
Compared to when I was looking February time, they've gone up about 3k (Hyundai i30n fastback) but they aren't falling off a cliff price wise. Go take a look and enjoy it!
I have one of the first mk7 GTIs made in 2013 and love it. It's really good across the board without being the best at one thing and they really grow on you the longer you own them. I actually bought it to do me a year till I got a Focus RS and ended up just keeping the GTI as it doesn't have a weak point.
Prices are high at the moment and GTI's and R's have definitely went up.
Unfortunately it is very hard to predict when the market is going to correct itself.
There does seem to be a stockpile of certain cars building up on the used market as stock seems overpriced eg: Golf R's, GTI's, S3's, M140I's and the M3 and M4. I do think they will have to drop in price.
I personally think the market is so inflated at the moment that you would be doing yourself a disservice by not looking at one of the new MK8 GTI's or R's and running the numbers on a lease you might be very surprised.
Prices are high at the moment and GTI's and R's have definitely went up.
Unfortunately it is very hard to predict when the market is going to correct itself.
There does seem to be a stockpile of certain cars building up on the used market as stock seems overpriced eg: Golf R's, GTI's, S3's, M140I's and the M3 and M4. I do think they will have to drop in price.
I personally think the market is so inflated at the moment that you would be doing yourself a disservice by not looking at one of the new MK8 GTI's or R's and running the numbers on a lease you might be very surprised.
I'm holding out, happy to run around in what I have for another 2 years if need be (if it lasts that long).
Prices are crazy for anything less than 4 years old, and even if I can offset a bit of the cost by selling mine it's still going to mean a few grand more than 12 months ago.
I am firmly in the camp that prices will correct and quickly once the market normalises, if we get a steady supply of new cars coming to market again then logic no one is going to pay more for used.
My strategy now is to keep putting more and more cash into investments and when prices correct I'll have cash ready to hopefully pick up a bargain, I have a feeling that many bought a car when on Furlough, WFH, bit of an impulse buy that is either holding its value or increasing, when the wind changes and prices start falling and they are asked to return to the office, world travel really starts opening back up they will be offloading in great numbers.
Camper vans, SUV and estate vehicles have been popular for staycations with families who in normal times holiday overseas. Covid and the pandemic has impacted things on many different fronts that have impacted supply and prices. It will take time but things will get back to normal, just little point buying now at the top of the market if you don't need to.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59207124
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/...
Prices are crazy for anything less than 4 years old, and even if I can offset a bit of the cost by selling mine it's still going to mean a few grand more than 12 months ago.
I am firmly in the camp that prices will correct and quickly once the market normalises, if we get a steady supply of new cars coming to market again then logic no one is going to pay more for used.
My strategy now is to keep putting more and more cash into investments and when prices correct I'll have cash ready to hopefully pick up a bargain, I have a feeling that many bought a car when on Furlough, WFH, bit of an impulse buy that is either holding its value or increasing, when the wind changes and prices start falling and they are asked to return to the office, world travel really starts opening back up they will be offloading in great numbers.
Camper vans, SUV and estate vehicles have been popular for staycations with families who in normal times holiday overseas. Covid and the pandemic has impacted things on many different fronts that have impacted supply and prices. It will take time but things will get back to normal, just little point buying now at the top of the market if you don't need to.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59207124
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/...
Edited by Theoldguard on Wednesday 10th November 09:24
Edited by Theoldguard on Wednesday 10th November 09:31
Used car prices in the UK have been lower than almost everywhere else in the world for decades. I'm not sure why all the self proclaimed financial experts seem to think prices will "normalise" or there'll be some sort of "correction in the market".
If you need or want a car then just buy one.
If you need or want a car then just buy one.
Theoldguard said:
I'm holding out, happy to run around in what I have for another 2 years if need be (if it lasts that long).
Prices are crazy for anything less than 4 years old, and even if I can offset a bit of the cost by selling mine it's still going to mean a few grand more than 12 months ago.
I am firmly in the camp that prices will correct and quickly once the market normalises, if we get a steady supply of new cars coming to market again then logic no one is going to pay more for used.
My strategy now is to keep putting more and more cash into investments and when prices correct I'll have cash ready to hopefully pick up a bargain, I have a feeling that many bought a car when on Furlough, WFH, bit of an impulse buy that is either holding its value or increasing, when the wind changes and prices start falling and they are asked to return to the office, world travel really starts opening back up they will be offloading in great numbers.
Camper vans, SUV and estate vehicles have been popular for staycations with families who in normal times holiday overseas. Covid and the pandemic has impacted things on many different fronts that have impacted supply and prices. It will take time but things will get back to normal, just little point buying now at the top of the market if you don't need to.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59207124
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/...
Not sure that's ever going to happen, if there is a correction its more likely to be small/gradual and largely soaked up by BOE base rates staying low and GBP currency deflation.Prices are crazy for anything less than 4 years old, and even if I can offset a bit of the cost by selling mine it's still going to mean a few grand more than 12 months ago.
I am firmly in the camp that prices will correct and quickly once the market normalises, if we get a steady supply of new cars coming to market again then logic no one is going to pay more for used.
My strategy now is to keep putting more and more cash into investments and when prices correct I'll have cash ready to hopefully pick up a bargain, I have a feeling that many bought a car when on Furlough, WFH, bit of an impulse buy that is either holding its value or increasing, when the wind changes and prices start falling and they are asked to return to the office, world travel really starts opening back up they will be offloading in great numbers.
Camper vans, SUV and estate vehicles have been popular for staycations with families who in normal times holiday overseas. Covid and the pandemic has impacted things on many different fronts that have impacted supply and prices. It will take time but things will get back to normal, just little point buying now at the top of the market if you don't need to.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59207124
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/...
As others have said, the UK was always cheap for used cars compared to the EU, plus, the lack of used cars in the market now is driven by low build numbers for 2020 and 2021.
October 2021 was the worst month for 30 years for new car sales due to availability. This low build quota is now predicted to continue into at least early 2023 (in an article linked to via the BBC article above: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58721085), due to chip shortages. This drives a knock on impact for used availability for at least another 18-36 months, as new, nearly new and then older used volumes will be extremely low for this extended period. With used car prices predicted to keep rising gradually in this period, at least until new car manufacturing gets back on track.
The other thing to keep in mind is the noise from the industry suggests it won't really ever get back on track in the same way; e.g. pre registering too many UK cars, lots of low spec high volume models etc. More and more production is being switched to higher end models, based on better new lead times being offered for these, and more production capacity is going electric. Plus all the manufacturers have realigned new car pricing upwards to make much better per unit margins. Once this pricing shift happens, although volume production may go up again at some point, actual unit pricing is very unlikely to go back down.
This all means you may lose some money in real terms due to inflation over a 2 to 4 year period, but, in actual pound note value you're unlikely to take a bath and many are predicting you'll actually pay even more for a used car in the next couple of years.
Edited by paulo_f1 on Wednesday 10th November 12:53
nunpuncher said:
Used car prices in the UK have been lower than almost everywhere else in the world for decades. I'm not sure why all the self proclaimed financial experts seem to think prices will "normalise" or there'll be some sort of "correction in the market".
If you need or want a car then just buy one.
There is a reason for that. What’s different in the UK to almost the rest of the entire developed world?If you need or want a car then just buy one.
I suspect there is a lot of bias in any predictions. Nobody that has paid through the nose for something in a bubble really wants prices to fall back to normal.
The reality is waiting over a year is just silly if you can afford it now. A year is one hell of a long time in a relatively short life.
I probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
I probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
Brett748 said:
The reality is waiting over a year is just silly if you can afford it now. A year is one hell of a long time in a relatively short life.
I probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
You’re happy to lose 1K (plus normal depreciation) on something that cost ~7K.I probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
Would you be happy buy something for 28K and to lose 4K (plus normal depreciation)?
Brett748 said:
The reality is waiting over a year is just silly if you can afford it now. A year is one hell of a long time in a relatively short life.
I probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
agreedI probably paid a grand over the odds for my bike last month (Bonneville T120 2017) but it was better than not having it for an extra 12-18 months.
Life really is too short not to have nice things.
RUSTILLDOWN said:
You’re happy to lose 1K (plus normal depreciation) on something that cost ~7K.
Would you be happy buy something for 28K and to lose 4K (plus normal depreciation)?
Yes. You can't purely think of depreciation as a loss because you have had use of the vehicle you wanted. It is no different to spending £4k on a holiday which people do annually. Would you be happy buy something for 28K and to lose 4K (plus normal depreciation)?
I'm coming to the end of my Scirocco R lease. Given the lack of decent deals on lease these days , I looked at used. As mentioned used are crazy high now so looked at new.
Bottom line i've gone for a brand new city car arriving next month. The difference between a 2-3 year old and ordering new was about a grand . Obviously a no brainer and will do for now until things settle in a couple of years.
Bottom line i've gone for a brand new city car arriving next month. The difference between a 2-3 year old and ordering new was about a grand . Obviously a no brainer and will do for now until things settle in a couple of years.
Brett748 said:
RUSTILLDOWN said:
You’re happy to lose 1K (plus normal depreciation) on something that cost ~7K.
Would you be happy buy something for 28K and to lose 4K (plus normal depreciation)?
Yes. You can't purely think of depreciation as a loss because you have had use of the vehicle you wanted. It is no different to spending £4k on a holiday which people do annually. Would you be happy buy something for 28K and to lose 4K (plus normal depreciation)?
I started keeping my eyes peeled for a new family car last year, and since then things I could afford have gone out the budget, but I'm not moving the budget, I'm just looking at different cars now.
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