EVs... no one wants them!

[DonkeyApple]

Maracus said:

DonkeyApple said:

ChocolateFrog said:

All depends on if you need the range or not.

If you do genuinely need 100's of miles of range then yes I agree. It's a fundamental problem with the form factor. You can't physically fit a 100kwh of storage under a Fiat 500 in battery form.

Yet.

Good point, Toyota and Nissan say this dense storage battery is 'just around the corner'

And I suspect they will still be saying that years after BYD or CATL have been putting them in cars.

Toyota and Nissan have backed SS quite hard and now Chinese wet cell chemistry looks to have caught up with the projected energy densities and safety the Japanese firms have been promising for years.

This is interesting as it shows the general trend: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw...



It does give the impression that it won't be too many years before 100kwh batteries are taking up the size and weight of today's 50kwh batteries.

Small EVs today are far too expensive and limited on range to suitably replace a low income household's use of a small ICe to cover all tasks but they work absolutely fine for higher income households with driveways and other cars which is all they are currently aimed at.

What's important is that the battery tech continues to improve so that within ten years these small EVs are much more usable over a much wider remit, their costs are much lower and the third party infrastructure suitably expanded. Then another decade for the used market to proliferate with them.

What we do want to be doing with BIK is starting to remove it from higher value EVs as more smaller and cheaper ones come to market. It's those smaller and cheaper EVs we want most when it comes to stocking up the used market.

[loudlashadjuster]

DonkeyApple said:

And I suspect they will still be saying that years after BYD or CATL have been putting them in cars.

Toyota and Nissan have backed SS quite hard and now Chinese wet cell chemistry looks to have caught up with the projected energy densities and safety the Japanese firms have been promising for years.

This is interesting as it shows the general trend: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw...

[Img]https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_article_width/public/2022-04/FOTW_1234.png?itok=efOIFaQM[/thumb]

It does give the impression that it won't be too many years before 100kwh batteries are taking up the size and weight of today's 50kwh batteries.

Small EVs today are far too expensive and limited on range to suitably replace a low income household's use of a small ICe to cover all tasks but they work absolutely fine for higher income households with driveways and other cars which is all they are currently aimed at.

What's important is that the battery tech continues to improve so that within ten years these small EVs are much more usable over a much wider remit, their costs are much lower and the third party infrastructure suitably expanded. Then another decade for the used market to proliferate with them.

What we do want to be doing with BIK is starting to remove it from higher value EVs as more smaller and cheaper ones come to market. It's those smaller and cheaper EVs we want most when it comes to stocking up the used market.

The thing is, it is my understanding that physics certainly doesn't preclude a vastly more energy dense solid state battery - can you imagine 200 kWh in something the size and weight of a traditional car fuel tank (full)?! How transformative would that be?

Wet cells will always have the disadvantage of having to lug around all that electrolyte which is absolutely needed to get the electrons where they need to be, but doesn't contribute to energy storage. If the boffins get something like Li-air working then...

[DonkeyApple]

loudlashadjuster said:

The thing is, it is my understanding that physics certainly doesn't preclude a vastly more energy dense solid state battery - can you imagine 200 kWh in something the size and weight of a traditional car fuel tank (full)?! How transformative would that be?

Wet cells will always have the disadvantage of having to lug around all that electrolyte which is absolutely needed to get the electrons where they need to be, but doesn't contribute to energy storage. If the boffins get something like Li-air working then...

Indeed but major corporations have been trying to get the product out of the lab since the 80s and just failed time and time again.

We appear to be close to actually seeing a SS battery in a car but wet cells look to have almost surpassed these in energy density terms but more importantly with costs magnitudes lower.

That's the big risk facing SS, cost. If wet cells can be made that have matching density but a fraction of the cost then nearly all the funding into SS will halt as the uplift in funding during this century has only occurred because it was believed wet cells would never have the energy densities they have achieved so quickly.

Energy storage is the single largest technological failure of mankind. When the problem is finally cracked and we can genuinely store huge amounts of energy in a small parcel then the doors of innovation that will be opened overnight will be simply 'shocking'.

[braddo]

Scootersp said:

They do as perhaps a second car, but loads of people have a small hatchback as their one and only means of transport

Remember, no-one is being forced to buy an EV or a brand new car. If an EV doesn't suit someone today, that's OK. Things will evolve and their appeal will continue to broaden over the next 10-20 years.

Less than half of UK households have 1 car.

About 35% of UK households more more than 1 car.

22% of households have no car at all.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-...

As of today there are millions for whom a EV doesn't quite work yet, mainly due to charging infrastructure. There are many millions for whom an EV works just fine today and they simply have to wait some years until the used EV market grows to a sufficient size (when there will be decent choice at a wide range of budgets).

[braddo]

Here are some interesting stats from UK government - average number of trips by trip length, from 2002 until 2022.

For car/van drivers it has been remarkably stable - only 3 trips per year of more than 100 miles!

Or 0.7% of the average person's total car trips. For trips of 50-100 miles it is a steady downward trend over the past 20 years, from 7 trips to 5.


It is a reminder for the classic PHer - a middle-aged British male who likes driving - that the vast majority of UK drivers do very few long journeys and that they don't enjoy them. For most people who can afford to go on holiday, they go to airports.


Source - this link and then download NTS0308 -
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-set...

[Unreal]

braddo said:

Scootersp said:

They do as perhaps a second car, but loads of people have a small hatchback as their one and only means of transport

Remember, no-one is being forced to buy an EV or a brand new car. If an EV doesn't suit someone today, that's OK. Things will evolve and their appeal will continue to broaden over the next 10-20 years.

Less than half of UK households have 1 car.

About 35% of UK households more more than 1 car.

22% of households have no car at all.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-...

As of today there are millions for whom a EV doesn't quite work yet, mainly due to charging infrastructure. There are many millions for whom an EV works just fine today and they simply have to wait some years until the used EV market grows to a sufficient size (when there will be decent choice at a wide range of budgets).

Completely agree. If you could just add that those who currently own EVs or ICE vehicles don't necessarily have the best cars we can close the thread.

[Roger Irrelevant]

braddo said:

Here are some interesting stats from UK government - average number of trips by trip length, from 2002 until 2022.

For car/van drivers it has been remarkably stable - only 3 trips per year of more than 100 miles!

I'm honestly amazed at that. I always knew I was a bit of an outlier in doing the number of 100 mile + journeys I do, but I didn't realise by how much.

[Dave200]

raspy said:

Dave200 said:

I tested one, and it looked like it would struggle to do the claimed range. By contrast, I had a Niro EV (the old shape) as an Uber recently, and the owner was very complimentary about the range vs claimed over 30k miles or so.

Someone on another forum reckons they get 280-300 in summer at 65mph out of their Kona

https://www.speakev.com/threads/so-what-is-the-mot...

From the owner themself on that thread.
"So when someone asks if they can expect to travel 200-220 motorway miles at 68mph all year round in rain, with headwind etc, and without stopping - the actual answer to that question is no."

My Tesla does 320+ (against a claimed 350) in mixed use without needing to crawl along with everything turned off.

[GT9]

Roger Irrelevant said:

I'm honestly amazed at that. I always knew I was a bit of an outlier in doing the number of 100 mile + journeys I do, but I didn't realise by how much.

Username checks out.
Statistically-speaking only of course.

[M4cruiser]

DonkeyApple said:

What we don't want right now is Labour stupidly putting more cash incentives on EVs which are just taxpayer bailouts to overseas manufacturers as now is the time to be turning the screws on them.

What we will get right now is exactly that.
Labour are inexperienced in government. They will soon find out that their "fully funded, fully costed" plans are not that easy to implement. They will have to incentivise EV take up somehow, possible by dis-incentivising ICE through tax rises. It's not that easy to make us buy EVs that are built in the UK.

[greenarrow]

Roger Irrelevant said:

braddo said:

Here are some interesting stats from UK government - average number of trips by trip length, from 2002 until 2022.

For car/van drivers it has been remarkably stable - only 3 trips per year of more than 100 miles!

I'm honestly amazed at that. I always knew I was a bit of an outlier in doing the number of 100 mile + journeys I do, but I didn't realise by how much.

Doesn't surprise me much tbh, in my immediate group of friends and family I am the only one who breaches the 3 trips per year of more than 100 miles barrier. My daughter might do too, due to travelling back home from Manchester 240 miles. We are in the minority in 2024, I do believe it.

But in my case, I am wondering if 15-20 such trips a year is such a big deal as the infrastructure for charging continues to develop.

Hence why I am leaning towards EV next time..

[DonkeyApple]

M4cruiser said:

What we will get right now is exactly that.
Labour are inexperienced in government. They will soon find out that their "fully funded, fully costed" plans are not that easy to implement. They will have to incentivise EV take up somehow, possible by dis-incentivising ICE through tax rises. It's not that easy to make us buy EVs that are built in the UK.

The issue is that any financial bonus aimed at the consumer gets absorbed by the manufacturer via elevated RRPs so all you're doing is giving money to manufacturers and forcing consumers to pay more.

Now the ZEV Mandate is in place we really don't need to be using financial incentives as the manufacturers have no choice but to sell x % of EVs a year or foxtrot oscar. Let them just duke it out for sales and the best way to do that and to protect the ICE business is discounting.

[Sheepshanks]

DonkeyApple said:

The issue is that any financial bonus aimed at the consumer gets absorbed by the manufacturer via elevated RRPs so all you're doing is giving money to manufacturers and forcing consumers to pay more.

You've only got to look at Salary Sacrifice pricing to see that in action - the gross pricing is generally bonkers. I wouldn't be surprised to see that either knocked on the head or changed to basic rate - unless lots of NHS staff have taken them up,

[monkfish1]

DonkeyApple said:

M4cruiser said:

What we will get right now is exactly that.
Labour are inexperienced in government. They will soon find out that their "fully funded, fully costed" plans are not that easy to implement. They will have to incentivise EV take up somehow, possible by dis-incentivising ICE through tax rises. It's not that easy to make us buy EVs that are built in the UK.

The issue is that any financial bonus aimed at the consumer gets absorbed by the manufacturer via elevated RRPs so all you're doing is giving money to manufacturers and forcing consumers to pay more.

Now the ZEV Mandate is in place we really don't need to be using financial incentives as the manufacturers have no choice but to sell x % of EVs a year or foxtrot oscar. Let them just duke it out for sales and the best way to do that and to protect the ICE business is discounting.

The mandate is well and good. Right up to the point where discounting to get the sales to people who dont want them causes you to sell at a loss on an onging basis. That has no long term future for any manufacturer.

It will be interesting for sure.

I suspect some manufacturers will simply bail and focus on easier markets once it becomes clear to them they cant make cars at a price the consumer will pay..

[braddo]

Sheepshanks said:

DonkeyApple said:

The issue is that any financial bonus aimed at the consumer gets absorbed by the manufacturer via elevated RRPs so all you're doing is giving money to manufacturers and forcing consumers to pay more.

You've only got to look at Salary Sacrifice pricing to see that in action - the gross pricing is generally bonkers. I wouldn't be surprised to see that either knocked on the head or changed to basic rate - unless lots of NHS staff have taken them up,

Surely it doesn't need to be that way, i.e. that inherently the manufacturers are providing the cars for these schemes at elevated prices. The business/fleet incentives are working as a tool grow the national EV fleet. Those incentives need to stay for a while yet.

[plfrench]

braddo said:

Sheepshanks said:

DonkeyApple said:

The issue is that any financial bonus aimed at the consumer gets absorbed by the manufacturer via elevated RRPs so all you're doing is giving money to manufacturers and forcing consumers to pay more.

You've only got to look at Salary Sacrifice pricing to see that in action - the gross pricing is generally bonkers. I wouldn't be surprised to see that either knocked on the head or changed to basic rate - unless lots of NHS staff have taken them up,

Surely it doesn't need to be that way, i.e. that inherently the manufacturers are providing the cars for these schemes at elevated prices. The business/fleet incentives are working as a tool grow the national EV fleet. Those incentives need to stay for a while yet.

It's the price gouging by the SS providers who are creaming off the lion's share of the tax and NI savings for themselves that needs looking at - you'd think there would be some way of regulating that. The jump in SS costs in the last couple of years has been insane. I remember when I first started looking seriously at SS towards the end of 2021, a i-Pace on 14k per annum over three years on 40% tax came out at low £400s per month and Model 3s on the same terms were something like £320. You could get e-Ups for about £160 per month. Taycans started high £600s from memory. All fully insured, serviced etc.

Now, I know the market has changed a fair bit since then, but something doesn't add up.

[charltjr]

It's both the SS suppliers creaming profits off the top, and EVs not having the residuals they used to.

Remember back at the time when SS was taking off you could run a £50k EV for a couple of years and sell it for not far off what you paid for it, because supply and demand was so out of kilter.

Now EVs are depreciating like ICE cars but with higher list prices to begin with, so unless there are discounted lease deals they don't stack up.

I have my i4 through SS but it was on a good "in stock" deal at the time. No way would I have taken one at the standard monthlies. Then again, that goes for pretty much any lease IMO, they are only good value when they're good value.

[Sheepshanks]

Not all manufacturers take part but the ones that do must be close to giving cars to Motability so that shows how much they can lease £40K+ EV’s for if they want to.

[M4cruiser]

Irrespective of discounts or RRP, I'm wondering how the car market reached this point where Hyundai/Kia have a zillion different electric models, and have had for several years, whilst Ford have 2 (Mustang & Exporer).

[Scootersp]

M4cruiser said:

Irrespective of discounts or RRP, I'm wondering how the car market reached this point where Hyundai/Kia have a zillion different electric models, and have had for several years, whilst Ford have 2 (Mustang & Exporer).

it 'could' end up being a shrewd move? Hyundai and Kia, have been a success I'd say from what I hear re EV's where Vauxhall and some others not so much?

Ford could have been either, if they delay then perhaps they can enter late on with more Kia/Hyundai type tech and avoid the costly and unpredictable self development?

Manufacturers frequently buy competitors cars and strip/inspect/reverse engineer them, perhaps this is the long term best bet, especially as the longer you wait the less bad tech your vehicles will have in the future as they age.