EVs... no one wants them!

[Wills2]

plfrench said:

Wills2 said:

SDK said:

Some people continue to claim EV’s are dead and sales are dropping
Yet this is the 7th consecutive month petrol & diesel market share is down and BEV up

The numbers make sobering reading.

At the half year point EV % share growth is 0.5% that's glacial, current EV share is at 16.6% vs the target of 22%, we started the year at 16.1% the target was to grow share by 5.9% it's grown by 0.5% which 8.5% of the target which is a woeful performance

It’s a far more nuanced set of rules though - 22% is just the headline figure. There are all sorts of trading and offsetting options available for both credits and fleet emissions performance. 18-19% for the year is entirely achievable and good enough for the first full year of the Mandate. This will ramp up quite sharply, but it’s a fine balancing act for the manufacturers- they won’t want to give away more margin than they have to, their strategies will have been very carefully costed. A manufacturer could apparently achieve as low as 5.5% BEV sales this year and not need to pay any £15k fines is they exploit all the levers to the maximum - they’d probably regret doing so though due to the difficulty in playing catch up in subsequent years.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/z...

My point had nothing to do with the nuanced set of rules as you call them, the 22% was quoted as that's the first rung of the ladder they are using as a bridge to 2035 at the current trend of share growth which has been stuck at 0.5% for the last 3 years EV share will be just 22% by 2035 vs the target year of 2024.

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

[MightyBadger]

https://youtu.be/WB3AHI40BFE?si=4PpIh5W7nYOO5wVa

[plfrench]

Wills2 said:

My point had nothing to do with the nuanced set of rules as you call them, the 22% was quoted as that's the first rung of the ladder they are using as a bridge to 2035 at the current trend of share growth which has been stuck at 0.5% for the last 3 years EV share will be just 22% by 2035 vs the target year of 2024.

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

It’s only since 1st Jan this year since it has kicked in though. It’ll be fine, don’t worry about it. Things are ramping up very well in my opinion. Automotive manufacturers are big enough and ugly enough to do the sums and have planned out how they’ll play things to hit the targets they choose to set themselves.

The bring forward thing is a red herring as ZEV Mandate is the real driver for the transition.

[survivalist]

plfrench said:

Wills2 said:

My point had nothing to do with the nuanced set of rules as you call them, the 22% was quoted as that's the first rung of the ladder they are using as a bridge to 2035 at the current trend of share growth which has been stuck at 0.5% for the last 3 years EV share will be just 22% by 2035 vs the target year of 2024.

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

It’s only since 1st Jan this year since it has kicked in though. It’ll be fine, don’t worry about it. Things are ramping up very well in my opinion. Automotive manufacturers are big enough and ugly enough to do the sums and have planned out how they’ll play things to hit the targets they choose to set themselves.

The bring forward thing is a red herring as ZEV Mandate is the real driver for the transition.

Things aren’t ramping at all, EVs have been stuck at roughly the same market share for several years now.

[tamore]

survivalist said:

plfrench said:

Wills2 said:

My point had nothing to do with the nuanced set of rules as you call them, the 22% was quoted as that's the first rung of the ladder they are using as a bridge to 2035 at the current trend of share growth which has been stuck at 0.5% for the last 3 years EV share will be just 22% by 2035 vs the target year of 2024.

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

It’s only since 1st Jan this year since it has kicked in though. It’ll be fine, don’t worry about it. Things are ramping up very well in my opinion. Automotive manufacturers are big enough and ugly enough to do the sums and have planned out how they’ll play things to hit the targets they choose to set themselves.

The bring forward thing is a red herring as ZEV Mandate is the real driver for the transition.

Things aren’t ramping at all, EVs have been stuck at roughly the same market share for several years now.

23% uplift globally. it's a torrent, and it won't be stopped.

[otolith]

Wills2 said:

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

As I understand it, the proposal is to resurrect the Tory policy, which means that the BEV date stays at 2035 but between 2030 and 2035 ICEs have to be plug in hybrids with a usable electric range. Boris couldn’t be arsed fleshing out the detail of what that means and Labour haven’t said anything yet.

[DonkeyApple]

M4cruiser said:

DonkeyApple said:

I've been a proponent for years for banning car vendors from being able to sell finance as it only allows them to manipulate the market against consumers and today, with our advanced consumer lending market places there is absolutely no place or benefit in allowing retailers to dictate debt deals. Leave lenders to compete on lending and car vendors to compete in car prices.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Thursday 4th July 21:51

I agree, but there will always be a way round the rules.
Technically, car vendors don't sell finance. They introduce you to someone else, i.e. a finance company. Ok, so they are closely linked, but the basic problem is the car buyers are lazy.
You can sit in the dealer and sign a couple of forms and get £15,000 at 14% interest.
Or you can make a couple of phone calls and get the same money from your bank at 6%. This then allows you to negotiate a "discount for cash". You can work out the combined overall savings, they are big.

That's the core issue. It's a tied lender where the vendor can manipulate their RRP to steer the consumer. It's a banned practice among other consumer markets precisely because the only outcome is higher charges to the consumer. It's a legacy of wanting to protect a domestic industry in reality. The key to note is that you aren't ever trying to negotiate a discount at all but a removal of the deliberate mark-up on the price that's put there to make the tied finance 'look' cheaper.

As a practice it also financially incentivised the manipulation of the used market meaning consumer pay more for used cars not just new.

[Richard-D]

otolith said:

Richard-D said:

That's not great either though as with the ethanol content of petrol you don't really want it sitting in your tank for months on end ready for your occasional long journey. As always, it isn't quite that simple.

Never drain the tanks on my occasionally used cars, not had any problems so far. Though they are run on super, to be fair.

I do the same, actually I do so few miles that I use super in my main car too. I have a caterham and a bike that barely see any use and I've had trouble with both of them despite only using super.

At a minimum, if someone is buying a hybrid with a decent electric range it's something that needs to be part of the equation.

[DonkeyApple]

Wills2 said:

The numbers make sobering reading.

At the half year point EV % share growth is 0.5% that's glacial, current EV share is at 16.6% vs the target of 22%, we started the year at 16.1% the target was to grow share by 5.9% it's grown by 0.5% which 8.5% of the target which is a woeful performance

The other way to look at the data is to consider that EVs tend to be among the higher cost vehicles and the weaker sales are a reflection of the truer state of a high tax, high cost economy where highly leveraged, non essential purchases are showing the true condition.

EVs offer lower ongoing cost potential to this demographic but they have to be able to achieve or desire the large credit loading in order to obtain that vehicle in the first instance.

The car industry needs to deliver cheaper EVs in order to meet the financial criteria of their potential client base.

[tamore]

DonkeyApple said:

Wills2 said:

The numbers make sobering reading.

At the half year point EV % share growth is 0.5% that's glacial, current EV share is at 16.6% vs the target of 22%, we started the year at 16.1% the target was to grow share by 5.9% it's grown by 0.5% which 8.5% of the target which is a woeful performance

The other way to look at the data is to consider that EVs tend to be among the higher cost vehicles and the weaker sales are a reflection of the truer state of a high tax, high cost economy where highly leveraged, non essential purchases are showing the true condition.

EVs offer lower ongoing cost potential to this demographic but they have to be able to achieve or desire the large credit loading in order to obtain that vehicle in the first instance.

The car industry needs to deliver cheaper EVs in order to meet the financial criteria of their potential client base.

it's about to. 40k+ for a corse, absolutely cracked and the reason why stellantis et al are in the st.

[DonkeyApple]

tamore said:

it's about to. 40k+ for a corse, absolutely cracked and the reason why stellantis et al are in the st.

Many similar firms have become weak living off government protections and funding along with vast levels of cheap debt as an easy path to hit equity targets and pay dividends. It's a new economy and they need to adapt or exit but we will hear much more whinging and begging for our money to be taken and given to them while they are adapting.

Lower price EVs are appearing, costs are falling but it's going to be a tough ride for the brands that traditionally trade at the lower end of the market which is where no consumer needs an EV and many can't yet make use of them. Strategic partnerships with companies that can build cheap EVs is probably their best means to remain in some markets, like Renault's rebrand on the Dacia cars.

[survivalist]

tamore said:

survivalist said:

plfrench said:

Wills2 said:

My point had nothing to do with the nuanced set of rules as you call them, the 22% was quoted as that's the first rung of the ladder they are using as a bridge to 2035 at the current trend of share growth which has been stuck at 0.5% for the last 3 years EV share will be just 22% by 2035 vs the target year of 2024.

Apparently Labour are going to bring it forward to 2030 so that will be done when the share is at 19% if current trends continue, utterly bonkers it'll crash the new car market

It’s only since 1st Jan this year since it has kicked in though. It’ll be fine, don’t worry about it. Things are ramping up very well in my opinion. Automotive manufacturers are big enough and ugly enough to do the sums and have planned out how they’ll play things to hit the targets they choose to set themselves.

The bring forward thing is a red herring as ZEV Mandate is the real driver for the transition.

Things aren’t ramping at all, EVs have been stuck at roughly the same market share for several years now.

23% uplift globally. it's a torrent, and it won't be stopped.

Discussion was about uk BEV market share which has clearly stalled.

Europe is broadly similar.

China is a different story.

There’s also a big difference between an increase in market share and and comparing YoY sales numbers. Anything coming from a small base will show a high percentage of YoY growth, even if market share remains low. However, market share is by far the best indicator of adoption.

It’s a trickle rather than a torrent.

[tamore]

survivalist said:

Discussion was about uk BEV market share which has clearly stalled.

Europe is broadly similar.

China is a different story.

There’s also a big difference between an increase in market share and and comparing YoY sales numbers. Anything coming from a small base will show a high percentage of YoY growth, even if market share remains low. However, market share is by far the best indicator of adoption.

It’s a trickle rather than a torrent.

subject was ……. 'EVs... no one wants them!' you know, the thread title.

[ACCYSTAN]

Is there any aftermarket companies who can upgrade an electric car battery?

My mate has an electric Vauxhall vivaro van, it’s 3 years old and in summer does 90 miles, winter 70 miles at best!
The battery has degraded but he doesn’t want the same battery again, the range when it was new wasn’t much better,

Is there a firm who can upgrade the battery, software, charger, etc that improve the vehicles range performance?

[survivalist]

tamore said:

survivalist said:

Discussion was about uk BEV market share which has clearly stalled.

Europe is broadly similar.

China is a different story.

There’s also a big difference between an increase in market share and and comparing YoY sales numbers. Anything coming from a small base will show a high percentage of YoY growth, even if market share remains low. However, market share is by far the best indicator of adoption.

It’s a trickle rather than a torrent.

subject was ……. 'EVs... no one wants them!' you know, the thread title.

Referring to used car dealers not wanting to take used EVs for part exchange.

Demand for used EVs (and indeed new EVs) still seems to be an issue in markets where consumers have a choice.

European and US demand not meeting initial predictions or, in the case of the UK, the mandates discussed.

Don’t get me wrong, I like my EV for what it is. I also like that it was nice and cheap because demand is so low.

[tamore]

from feb 23. it's changed as the market has corrected. legacy automakers are getting a (quite rightly) reality check and the new boys are moving in.

2nd hand market seems lively. at the right price.

[survivalist]

ACCYSTAN said:

Is there any aftermarket companies who can upgrade an electric car battery?

My mate has an electric Vauxhall vivaro van, it’s 3 years old and in summer does 90 miles, winter 70 miles at best!
The battery has degraded but he doesn’t want the same battery again, the range when it was new wasn’t much better,

Is there a firm who can upgrade the battery, software, charger, etc that improve the vehicles range performance?

If it’s degraded to that extent can he not make a warranty claim? Pretty sure most EVs have a much longer battery warranty than the overall one. Usually 8-10 years.

[survivalist]

tamore said:

from feb 23. it's changed as the market has corrected. legacy automakers are getting a (quite rightly) reality check and the new boys are moving in.

2nd hand market seems lively. at the right price.

I the UK at least the market does seem to have changed much this year. New or used.

Agree on general correction, but EV depreciation still seems very high. Most aggressive lease and PCP deals have been on EVs and there are a large number of pre-reg BEVs at high discounts.

Will continue as long as new car registrations for EVs lag behind the ZEV mandate.

As new BEV prices are discounted further (due to a lack of demand) used prices will continue to suffer and (back to the OPs point) as a result used car dealers will be reluctant to trade in something that has an unpredictable future value.

[tamore]

survivalist said:

I the UK at least the market does seem to have changed much this year. New or used.

Agree on general correction, but EV depreciation still seems very high. Most aggressive lease and PCP deals have been on EVs and there are a large number of pre-reg BEVs at high discounts.

Will continue as long as new car registrations for EVs lag behind the ZEV mandate.

As new BEV prices are discounted further (due to a lack of demand) used prices will continue to suffer and (back to the OPs point) as a result used car dealers will be reluctant to trade in something that has an unpredictable future value.

no more silly porsche/ merc models are needed,. it's all about the r5, spring, ec3 and the wave of chinese cars on the way that will make the difference. not PH driving god type vehicles, but A to B average Joe/Joanne mobiles

[survivalist]

tamore said:

survivalist said:

I the UK at least the market does seem to have changed much this year. New or used.

Agree on general correction, but EV depreciation still seems very high. Most aggressive lease and PCP deals have been on EVs and there are a large number of pre-reg BEVs at high discounts.

Will continue as long as new car registrations for EVs lag behind the ZEV mandate.

As new BEV prices are discounted further (due to a lack of demand) used prices will continue to suffer and (back to the OPs point) as a result used car dealers will be reluctant to trade in something that has an unpredictable future value.

no more silly porsche/ merc models are needed,. it's all about the r5, spring, ec3 and the wave of chinese cars on the way that will make the difference. not PH driving god type vehicles, but A to B average Joe/Joanne mobiles

I’d agree if there was anything to suggest that the majority of consumers want an EV but just haven’t seen one that appeals to them. However, the reality for the majority of people who aren’t using salary sacrifice or company car schemes is that they aren’t very interested in EVs.

Citroen had a 1.6% market share in 2023, some even if every car they sold from now on was an EV it still wouldn’t make a huge difference. Despite some very cheap deals, BYD and GWM seem to be struggling to find buyers. The flood of cheap Chinese EVs seems to be challenged by supply chain (dealers, spares etc) and the threat of tarrifs.

The R5 might be different if it lives up to expectations from a price and driving experience perspective.