EVs... no one wants them!

EVs... no one wants them!

Author
Discussion

anonymous-user

57 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.

Monkeylegend

26,765 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.
Well apart from he exorbitant cost, constant line closures at weekends for engineering works, and the fact they always seem to be on strike, trains seem like the perfect solution.

They also don't go door to door or at the times you would want them to go.

Edited by Monkeylegend on Thursday 2nd February 17:40

Chamon_Lee

3,835 posts

150 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.
Give it a rest.
You know the answer to that. The services are rubbish and inadequate. Never mind the net zero malarkey.

J1990

836 posts

56 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.
I drive from Bristol to London in the F Type, I get ~32mpg for the 240miles journey (£50). I park at Westfield all day (£8.50 up to 14hrs, 14-24hrs is £12.50 I believe) and get the tube in to Oxford Circus (£5.80). It's about 3hrs in and 2.5hrs back. So <£60 to get to London and back, given that I'd still have the tube cost even if getting the train in.

If I was doing the whole journey by train I'd still have to do 30miles (£7) return to the nearest station, parking all day (£9) and the £5.80 on the tube. So I need to get my return train tickets to London for ~£44 and also hope there's no strikes, delays, cancellations just to have the same cost for the journey. If I'm then doing the journey with anyone else then the train is just never the cheaper option.

Until something is done to crack down on public transport costs, it's just not feasible to use public transport for a lot of journeys in the UK.

Flumpo

3,980 posts

76 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Flumpo said:
Castrol for a knave said:
To add to my last and to some other comments about range.

I don't know if I was an outlier, but a 500 mil day was/is pretty common. I have one tomorrow from darkest Shropsostershire to darkest Cornwall and back.

In the M3LR, that would mean getting a full charge into it, then another charge around Gordano, running our to Cornwall and hoping to make it back to Gordano for a top up to get home. I could use destination chargers, but it is a shag having to leave the motorway to find a a charging station round the back of a hotel or whatever.

Overall, that probably add 1 hour to 1 hour 20 to my overall journey time.

Whereas I get into the Alfa tomorrow and head off, stopping off at Gloucester services for a fair trade lesbian woke pastie and a can of Fentimans.

do that twice or more a week, and the EV experience starts to drag.....
Off topic, but I was there the other week and had a nice steak and ale pie, it was about £7 though… only stopped for piss.
Classic ICE response. The EV drivers amongst us will have a coffee, do the weekly shop, walk the dog, have another coffee, play with the kids, eat lunch, call Australia, have another coffee, eat dinner then leave *checks car, still not charged*

TX.
But I only needed a wee?

Monkeylegend

26,765 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.

blueacid

467 posts

144 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.
I wrestle with this; I want to have an EV, but sadly a lot of my journeys are 230 mile motorway schleps. One from Manchester to London and back quite often.

Now, I'd consider myself pragmatic. In my diesel ICE, I typically stop anyway after 2 hours for a pee and a cup of tea, so the car is parked anyway for 10-15 mins. So I'd be quite happy to switch to something with the range of, ish, an ipace.

Except, sadly, I'd only get approximately 1/3 of that journey on cheap overnight electric; there'd be a rapid on the motorway down to make sure I made it, the overnight on-street charge (with Source London or Ubitricity, who are currently around the 40p-ish mark per kWh), and then the similar splash of volts on the way home again.

Why not take the train? Well, they're about the same price, and are run by Avanti. Who, last I checked, seem really averse to the concept of running trains. Plus, I've gotta carry everything; on my most recent trip I needed gym kit, climbing gear, couple of bottles of nice wine (gifts for friends I was visiting), and a couple of toolbags for some DIY I'd mistakenly agreed to do. Bit of a faff to carry all of that across London on the underground!


That being said, I still find myself looking at the sub-30k EVs which might make the trip. Just, can't get my eyes off some of their ICE competition; the choice of paying £25k for a 740i or the cheapest Model S's for sale in the country is the current thought!

Chipper

1,352 posts

220 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
soupdragon1 said:
Let me say one thing 1st, patronising comments neither resonate, or stir up an emotional response from me. Water off a ducks back so no need to get into that.

You mention Sandy Munroe and driving from London to Edinburgh in the same post, and lets be honest, does Sandy even know where Edinburgh is?

Again, you are throwing in multiple talking points in a haphazard way that makes it difficult to have a reasonable discussion.

But lets go back to the start of your post. Sandy Munroe. He breaks down cars and talks about manufacturing and I'm not going to have a debate about his expertise and that field and will gladly hand him (and you) the win on that talking point.

To continue on after that concession. Where are you ranking Sandy, with his highly regarded lifelong vocation to engineering, on understanding balance sheets, outside of headline numbers? In short, I'm not prepared to give him the win on this point. Are you?

There are so many areas where these headline margins are meaningless in a like for like comparison, and when you are comparing business performance both of competitors, and YOY performance within your own business, like for like is crucial for getting just the 'basic analysis' for comparison. We don't have that.

For example, its well known that Tesla carry out warranty repairs as goodwill repairs, which effectively mean, its registered on the balance sheet as an operating expense, rather than a liability.

Let me make this easy to digest. Say for every £50k car sold, there is £5k worth of repairs/recalls that Tesla foot the bill for. If you track that as warranty repair, then PWC will be looking at the balance sheet and making sure £5k sits in liabilities as its effectively a cost that will be incurred in the future. If you track £2k as warranty, and £3k as good will, you've just moved £3k (or 6% of revenue) from liability and straight out of the balance sheet, only to show up some time later as an operating expense.

So straightaway, you've got a lovely accounting trick that increases your margin. You can see over the years how this moves on Teslas balance sheet and when you reconcile it with the fact that Tesla push out cars with multiple defects and fix them afterwards, we can see that warranty provision is inadequate.

In short, they inflate their margin and store the bad news for later, rather than have a proper liability provision.

As a side note to this story, the whole cash flow element is a farce as well, due to how Tesla push cars quarterly and are desperate not to hold much stock at any moment, hence the kneejerk free S/C miles, discount from inventory, price cuts etc etc. Its all rosy when the growth is there, when effectively, revenue hits the balance sheet (customer payments for cars) before suppliers are paid for their parts supplied to build said cars.

Delayed supplier payments are fine, and perfectly normal, but they can make a growth company look stronger financially than it really is, and when the growth in Tesla stops (which it will) then the lack of warranty provision and the fact that customer revenue is booked before suppliers are paid (amongst other things), you've got an incredible cash flow headwind just waiting to slap you in the face. And thats what is waiting for Tesla. And thats when true margin discovery will finally start to play out.

Did you know that Tesla have just secured a $7b dollar credit line with Deutsche bank? Who would need to organise that when you've got $20b in free cash flow?

I'll have to revisit some of the other stuff, this post is long enough already....
I’ve answered why I think Tesla are in a strong position in the EV market above and a lot of my weight is down to listening to Sandy Munro but also my own experience commercially and owning two of them. As I’ve stated I’m no fan of Musk or Tesla and this is honestly like arguing about two washing machines to me. They are that plain and boring but I’m genuinely intrigued why and I quote from your previous post.

“VW don't give a monkeys about Tesla slashing prices. A few days after Tesla slashed their prices, VW raised the price of the ID3 smile”

I’ve stated that I believe what Sandy says is true, and if so it has huge sway with the outcome of the EV market. He’s basically stating they have double the mark up in a Tesla than every other manufacturer has without even taking into account the second bite of the cherry with things like the performance upgrade options done wirelessly. I’m genuinely intrigued why you don’t think Sandy is speaking the truth or simply why you think VW are in such a position that they don’t care what Tesla does.? In under seven years car production on ICE vehicles will have ended (or so they say ) and the only true viable way to charge an EV is on the Tesla super charger network.

Also VW still have the basic ID3 up at £39500 which is now priced so high it’s competing against not only the Tesla Model 3 but also the Ford Mustang Mach E . Ford was obviously worried about the Tesla price reduction. Both vehicles are clearly in a higher class than an ID3, have substantial better range and better kit for the price and yet you still feel VW aren’t bothered?



Edited by Chipper on Thursday 2nd February 18:20

Discombobulate

4,933 posts

189 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
J1990 said:
I drive from Bristol to London in the F Type, I get ~32mpg for the 240miles journey (£50). I park at Westfield all day (£8.50 up to 14hrs, 14-24hrs is £12.50 I believe) and get the tube in to Oxford Circus (£5.80). It's about 3hrs in and 2.5hrs back. So <£60 to get to London and back, given that I'd still have the tube cost even if getting the train in.

If I was doing the whole journey by train I'd still have to do 30miles (£7) return to the nearest station, parking all day (£9) and the £5.80 on the tube. So I need to get my return train tickets to London for ~£44 and also hope there's no strikes, delays, cancellations just to have the same cost for the journey. If I'm then doing the journey with anyone else then the train is just never the cheaper option.

Until something is done to crack down on public transport costs, it's just not feasible to use public transport for a lot of journeys in the UK.
I take your point but 240 miles in a F type cost way more than the £50 fuel you burn wink

rallye101

2,072 posts

200 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?

We do need to think about our overall way of life as part of the net zero target. That includes air travel but also other forms of transport.
Shhhooosh....

page3

4,958 posts

254 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Monkeylegend said:
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.
I’d say the reality for most will be very much the opposite. Wake up to car magically with 200-250 mile range.

Chipper

1,352 posts

220 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Chipper said:
soupdragon1 said:
Let me say one thing 1st, patronising comments neither resonate, or stir up an emotional response from me. Water off a ducks back so no need to get into that.

You mention Sandy Munroe and driving from London to Edinburgh in the same post, and lets be honest, does Sandy even know where Edinburgh is?

Again, you are throwing in multiple talking points in a haphazard way that makes it difficult to have a reasonable discussion.

But lets go back to the start of your post. Sandy Munroe. He breaks down cars and talks about manufacturing and I'm not going to have a debate about his expertise and that field and will gladly hand him (and you) the win on that talking point.

To continue on after that concession. Where are you ranking Sandy, with his highly regarded lifelong vocation to engineering, on understanding balance sheets, outside of headline numbers? In short, I'm not prepared to give him the win on this point. Are you?

There are so many areas where these headline margins are meaningless in a like for like comparison, and when you are comparing business performance both of competitors, and YOY performance within your own business, like for like is crucial for getting just the 'basic analysis' for comparison. We don't have that.

For example, its well known that Tesla carry out warranty repairs as goodwill repairs, which effectively mean, its registered on the balance sheet as an operating expense, rather than a liability.

Let me make this easy to digest. Say for every £50k car sold, there is £5k worth of repairs/recalls that Tesla foot the bill for. If you track that as warranty repair, then PWC will be looking at the balance sheet and making sure £5k sits in liabilities as its effectively a cost that will be incurred in the future. If you track £2k as warranty, and £3k as good will, you've just moved £3k (or 6% of revenue) from liability and straight out of the balance sheet, only to show up some time later as an operating expense.

So straightaway, you've got a lovely accounting trick that increases your margin. You can see over the years how this moves on Teslas balance sheet and when you reconcile it with the fact that Tesla push out cars with multiple defects and fix them afterwards, we can see that warranty provision is inadequate.

In short, they inflate their margin and store the bad news for later, rather than have a proper liability provision.

As a side note to this story, the whole cash flow element is a farce as well, due to how Tesla push cars quarterly and are desperate not to hold much stock at any moment, hence the kneejerk free S/C miles, discount from inventory, price cuts etc etc. Its all rosy when the growth is there, when effectively, revenue hits the balance sheet (customer payments for cars) before suppliers are paid for their parts supplied to build said cars.

Delayed supplier payments are fine, and perfectly normal, but they can make a growth company look stronger financially than it really is, and when the growth in Tesla stops (which it will) then the lack of warranty provision and the fact that customer revenue is booked before suppliers are paid (amongst other things), you've got an incredible cash flow headwind just waiting to slap you in the face. And thats what is waiting for Tesla. And thats when true margin discovery will finally start to play out.

Did you know that Tesla have just secured a $7b dollar credit line with Deutsche bank? Who would need to organise that when you've got $20b in free cash flow?

I'll have to revisit some of the other stuff, this post is long enough already....
I’ve answered why I think Tesla are in a strong position in the EV market above and a lot of my weight is down to listening to Sandy Munro but also my own experience commercially and owning two of them. As I’ve stated I’m no fan of Musk or Tesla and this is honestly like arguing about two washing machines to me. They are that plain and boring but I’m genuinely intrigued why and I quote from your previous post.

“VW don't give a monkeys about Tesla slashing prices. A few days after Tesla slashed their prices, VW raised the price of the ID3 smile”

I’ve stated that I believe what Sandy says is true, and if so it has huge sway with the outcome of the EV market. He’s basically stating they have double the mark up in a Tesla than every other manufacturer has without even taking into account the second bite of the cherry with things like the performance upgrade options done wirelessly. I’m genuinely intrigued why you don’t think Sandy is speaking the truth or simply why you think VW are in such a position that they don’t care what Tesla does.? In under seven years car production on ICE vehicles will have ended (or so they say ) and the only true viable way to charge an EV is on the Tesla super charger network.

Also VW still have the basic ID3 up at £39500 which is now priced so high it’s competing against not only the Tesla Model 3 but also the Ford Mustang Mach E . Ford was obviously worried about the Tesla price reduction. Both vehicles are clearly in a higher class than an ID3, have substantial better range and better kit for the price and yet you still feel VW aren’t bothered?



Edited by Chipper on Thursday 2nd February 18:20
Ah . I’ve just seen you bought an ID3 in January this year so I can now understand your defense of VW.



Edited by Chipper on Thursday 2nd February 18:46

anonymous-user

57 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
The best solution would be to continue to use financial measures to force ever more efficient cars to be produced with lower CO2 limits. That would give people the choice of driving relatively dull hybrid (probably) ICE long distance cars, or choosing a more advanced EV, and accepting whatever limitations the charging issue placed on their road trip ambitions.

Lower mileage drivers could choose between micro ICE city cars, or EV's that would also include bigger, more luxurious (and expensive) vehicles that were still low emissions.

No compulsion, just a genuine choice, but where you genuinely 'pay' for your emissions.

The government have clearly decided that's all too complicated and just decided to ban ICE, and this creates a need to makes sure that the infrastructure is up to it. I think it will be, but it's not a given.

(The financial measures by the way could include not only car tax, differential parking charges, city access charges, but more importantly limits on credit availability for different classes of cars based on emissions.)

Monkeylegend

26,765 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
page3 said:
Monkeylegend said:
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.
I’d say the reality for most will be very much the opposite. Wake up to car magically with 200-250 mile range.
Doubtful for many millions who have no home access for charging points in built up areas.

Zumbruk

7,848 posts

263 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Archie2050 said:
And more to the point, why are people regularly crossing the country in cars? Could those journeys be done better by train for example?
No. Not in the UK. The trains here are sh!te. Expensive, unreliable, dirty, inconvenient, uncomfortable sh!te. And I'd be quite happy never to travel on one ever again. That's the opinion a lifetime of commuting by train has formed. Never was I more glad than when I stopped commuting and no longer had to pay huge sums of taxed income to a company whose motto apparently was "We've got your money and we don't give a fk." Transport 2000 (or whatever they're called these days), the RMT, ASLEF, the TOCs, Railtrack (or whatever they're called these days) and all the rest can shove it.

page3

4,958 posts

254 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Monkeylegend said:
page3 said:
Monkeylegend said:
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.
I’d say the reality for most will be very much the opposite. Wake up to car magically with 200-250 mile range.
Doubtful for many millions who have no home access for charging points in built up areas.
Not all, most.

Earthdweller

13,752 posts

129 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Monkeylegend said:
page3 said:
Monkeylegend said:
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.
I’d say the reality for most will be very much the opposite. Wake up to car magically with 200-250 mile range.
Doubtful for many millions who have no home access for charging points in built up areas.
Even worse for those in rural areas who have no home charging points and have to travel much further distances and have virtually zero public charging networks

moktabe

950 posts

108 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Zumbruk said:
No. Not in the UK. The trains here are sh!te. Expensive, unreliable, dirty, inconvenient, uncomfortable sh!te. And I'd be quite happy never to travel on one ever again. That's the opinion a lifetime of commuting by train has formed. Never was I more glad than when I stopped commuting and no longer had to pay huge sums of taxed income to a company whose motto apparently was "We've got your money and we don't give a fk." Transport 2000 (or whatever they're called these days), the RMT, ASLEF, the TOCs, Railtrack (or whatever they're called these days) and all the rest can shove it.
As an regular ex-commuter from Mids to London you've nailed this perfectly.

Monkeylegend

26,765 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
page3 said:
Monkeylegend said:
page3 said:
Monkeylegend said:
The reality is that EV will never be as convenient and simple to use for most as an ICE car.
I’d say the reality for most will be very much the opposite. Wake up to car magically with 200-250 mile range.
Doubtful for many millions who have no home access for charging points in built up areas.
Not all, most.
Now I am confused

Flumpo

3,980 posts

76 months

Thursday 2nd February 2023
quotequote all
Chipper said:
soupdragon1 said:
“VW don't give a monkeys about Tesla slashing prices. A few days after Tesla slashed their prices, VW raised the price of the ID3 smile”

I’ve stated that I believe what Sandy says is true, and if so it has huge sway with the outcome of the EV market. He’s basically stating they have double the mark up in a Tesla than every other manufacturer has without even taking into account the second bite of the cherry with things like the performance upgrade options done wirelessly. I’m genuinely intrigued why you don’t think Sandy is speaking the truth or simply why you think VW are in such a position that they don’t care what Tesla does.? In under seven years car production on ICE vehicles will have ended (or so they say ) and the only true viable way to charge an EV is on the Tesla super charger network.

Also VW still have the basic ID3 up at £39500 which is now priced so high it’s competing against not only the Tesla Model 3 but also the Ford Mustang Mach E . Ford was obviously worried about the Tesla price reduction. Both vehicles are clearly in a higher class than an ID3, have substantial better range and better kit for the price and yet you still feel VW aren’t bothered?



Edited by Chipper on Thursday 2nd February 18:20
That was Turing into the worlds longest quote, so apologies if I’ve cut/missed it was a joke or something, but there are loads of the basic id3 ‘available’ for a lot less than £39,950

Although vw website is so confusing it was difficult to get details
From them direct.