EVs... no one wants them!

[greenarrow]

survivalist said:

SDK said:

Some people continue to claim EV’s are dead and sales are dropping
Yet this is the 7th consecutive month petrol & diesel market share is down and BEV up

It’s this kind of nonsense commentary that is putting people off EVs. The upwards trend is very slow. Compared to 2023 market share of new cars is up less than 1%.

To hit the ZEV mandate the monthly market share needs to increase significantly to correct the shortfall for the first half of 2024. Even in isolation the June numbers are short of the 22% ZEv mandate.

The reality is that hybrids are gaining the most share as a percentage and in absolute sales numbers.

Righly or wrongly BEVs aren’t gaining much market share despite significant incentives.

Just picking up on this point and I agree, its pretty shocking to me that more than sales of petrol cars in 2024 are still more than 3X that of BEVs and shows there's still a long way to go before EVs are widely adopted. PHEV sales as you say showing the best increase. Personally I'm not a PHEV fan. To me they fall down between two stools. I wouldn't mind something like a Hybrid Yaris, but can't see the point in a vehicle you have to plug in to charge which then does only 20-30 miles on electric only power. All the 330e models I see on my motorway journey are relying on good old fashioned petrol power!

[otolith]

greenarrow said:

Just picking up on this point and I agree, its pretty shocking to me that more than sales of petrol cars in 2024 are still more than 3X that of BEVs and shows there's still a long way to go before EVs are widely adopted. PHEV sales as you say showing the best increase. Personally I'm not a PHEV fan. To me they fall down between two stools. I wouldn't mind something like a Hybrid Yaris, but can't see the point in a vehicle you have to plug in to charge which then does only 20-30 miles on electric only power. All the 330e models I see on my motorway journey are relying on good old fashioned petrol power!

Depends what they are being used for. 20-30 miles would cover an awful lot of an awful lot of people's daily usage while removing all of the fear and doubt about longer journeys that people still seem to have with a full electric car.

[_Hoppers]

greenarrow said:

but can't see the point in a vehicle you have to plug in to charge which then does only 20-30 miles on electric only power.

It might not work for you but for my daily 25 mile work commute, a trip to visit my Mum at the weekend plus a few other relatively short drives, a 30 mile range would mostly much work for me. Yes, I do occasionaly venture further afield but these short trips make up the majority of the miles I'm putting on my 320D. Last year a 330e was on my shopping list but I've since decided that the complexity of two types of drive train in one vehicle wasn't worth it and a BEV would be a better option.

[DonkeyApple]

_Hoppers said:

Until the public are educated more and have the real facts about EVs, not the usual............:

1. Batteries are dead after 100,000miles
2. Tyres only last 7,000 miles
3. Brakes need replacing more often because of the weight of the vehicle?!!!!!!!
4. Charging away from home takes over an hour and most of the chargers don't work
5. Range isn't enough, I can do xxx miles in my 320D
6. etc etc

.....the uptake is going to be small. From speaking to friends about EVs, non of them are aware of........:

1. The minuscule running costs of charging at home plus
2. Savings in not having to get a £400 service every year (for Teslas at least).
3. Refinement of an electric motor as opposed to an N47 diesel engine
4. The performance of a supercar with the efficiency of an electric car
5. Reliability of an electric motor compared to an engine with multiple moving parts, sensors and filters etc
6. You don't actually need a range of 600miles when you only do 200 in a week
8. A 'long' trip may only involve one or two 10-20min charging stops
7. etc etc.

I know the above has been discussed many times here and I'm sure used EV values would be higher if the public had a better understanding of EVs?!

PS I was in the anti EV camp until I started following this thread!

Agree. But used EV values aren't low. RRPs are over inflated, more so than ever to get the house finance wheeze to work and to help funnel things like BIK savings away from the consumer.

Used EV prices are correct precisely because they are set by the consumer and broke free of the market manipulation of the manufacturers as they came off their first lease/finance package.

[_Hoppers]

DonkeyApple said:

_Hoppers said:

Until the public are educated more and have the real facts about EVs, not the usual............:

1. Batteries are dead after 100,000miles
2. Tyres only last 7,000 miles
3. Brakes need replacing more often because of the weight of the vehicle?!!!!!!!
4. Charging away from home takes over an hour and most of the chargers don't work
5. Range isn't enough, I can do xxx miles in my 320D
6. etc etc

.....the uptake is going to be small. From speaking to friends about EVs, non of them are aware of........:

1. The minuscule running costs of charging at home plus
2. Savings in not having to get a £400 service every year (for Teslas at least).
3. Refinement of an electric motor as opposed to an N47 diesel engine
4. The performance of a supercar with the efficiency of an electric car
5. Reliability of an electric motor compared to an engine with multiple moving parts, sensors and filters etc
6. You don't actually need a range of 600miles when you only do 200 in a week
8. A 'long' trip may only involve one or two 10-20min charging stops
7. etc etc.

I know the above has been discussed many times here and I'm sure used EV values would be higher if the public had a better understanding of EVs?!

PS I was in the anti EV camp until I started following this thread!

Agree. But used EV values aren't low. RRPs are over inflated, more so than ever to get the house finance wheeze to work and to help funnel things like BIK savings away from the consumer.

Used EV prices are correct precisely because they are set by the consumer and broke free of the market manipulation of the manufacturers as they came off their first lease/finance package.

Good point, I've not really appreciated this. I've been looking at 3-4 year old Models 3s, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the depreciation curve for these in another 2-3 years. Maybe I should have added 'future valuations' to my first list of negatives?

[Scootersp]

_Hoppers said:

.....the uptake is going to be small. From speaking to friends about EVs, non of them are aware of........:

1. The minuscule running costs of charging at home plus
2. Savings in not having to get a £400 service every year (for Teslas at least).
3. Refinement of an electric motor as opposed to an N47 diesel engine
4. The performance of a supercar with the efficiency of an electric car
5. Reliability of an electric motor compared to an engine with multiple moving parts, sensors and filters etc
6. You don't actually need a range of 600miles when you only do 200 in a week
8. A 'long' trip may only involve one or two 10-20min charging stops
7. etc etc.

I know the above has been discussed many times here and I'm sure used EV values would be higher if the public had a better understanding of EVs?!

As you drift down from new car buyers (that can indeed enjoy all your benefits you state) you can get contra's

1. Lots can't charge at home or have family competition to do so, cost differential of home to public is borderline criminal and hits the poorest? or certainly will mean they can't enjoy the same cost savings they otherwise might
2. Definitely servicing savings but also out of warranty so rare but terminally costly issues to worry about (we haven't see much of the 7+ year consequences as the sample sizes are fairly small?
3. Can't argue with that refinement will be unaltered, but that's a smaller factor in the cost conscious older car buyer
4. This only applies to the top of the tree EV's and again isn't high on many peoples list
5. This fits with the servicing savings, but also the older/cheaper they get the more the risk is of a significant cost. ICE's can often be nursed through a few hundred at a time as they get old, EV's as they age are likely to be largely hassle free then one owner gets hit by a big expense and it's scrapped, not as good a risk proposition for those on a budget?
6. Range will be an issue in older models, if it's your only car. Most EV owners on here go on about X Y Z is perfect for their use case and then discuss their other ICE car for other uses. Bar the fast charging top end EV's they are compromised practically vs ICE's.
7. when you do need the range for a long trip, eg UK holiday trip, Christmas etc, then a small range car equals (usually) a low recharge speed, combined with holiday traffic and those one or two 10-20 mins can be hours. Not all EV's are the same, unlike ICE's where there is no practical disadvantage having a 2000 Yaris or late LS460 (they can deal the same with all use cases), a first gen Leaf vs a Model whatever Tesla will be worlds apart on convenience on a long journey.

I speak from having friends of a wide range of social strata, more of them in the lower ranges of car purchasing where EV thoughts are years off and anything affordable has huge compromises compare to ICE. It will be interesting to see the transition over time, it feels to me like the lower middle and below classes will hang onto ICE significantly as what they can afford EV wise will come with (perceived at least) unworkable practicalities.

When you think of the variety today of ICE cars available in the £3-£10K range compared to EV's it isn't hard to see the issue for a significant part of the population? The cost savings or other EV advantages just aren't enough yet to offset the downsides.

Hopefully in time the repair and the general motor trade network gives the older car buyer some reassurance of lower risk, charging away from home can be a little more cost comparable, the variety of EV's coming down to their level increases, then you can see people drifting away from ICE.

I spose what I'm saying is it's easier at the top to enjoy the EV plus sides but gets harder as you come down the chain. Anyone with a very nice newish EV, would I think struggle to pick a £12K EV they'd prefer over a £12K ICE car if that could be their only method of transportation?

[FiF]

Interesting point raised by Cropley and Prior in this week's Autocar My week in cars podcast. It relates to a comment from one of the Autocar award winners David Moss who is from Nissan about very much advanced batteries with double the energy density and triple the charging speed which "will be available in Nissan cars by 2028",

All very encouraging though as they pointed out it creates an issue at time of purchasing. It's always been the case with imminent model updates but they're often relatively small incremental developments. As things develop in BEV world so quickly the chances of buying something that is maybe 2 years old but completely behind the curve.

It may well involve the usual manufacturer tactic of gradual release of new developments to maximise returns, but it just needs some disrupters to upset that strategy.

[Fastlane]

FiF said:

Interesting point raised by Cropley and Prior in this week's Autocar My week in cars podcast. It relates to a comment from one of the Autocar award winners David Moss who is from Nissan about very much advanced batteries with double the energy density and triple the charging speed which "will be available in Nissan cars by 2028",

All very encouraging though as they pointed out it creates an issue at time of purchasing. It's always been the case with imminent model updates but they're often relatively small incremental developments. As things develop in BEV world so quickly the chances of buying something that is maybe 2 years old but completely behind the curve.

It may well involve the usual manufacturer tactic of gradual release of new developments to maximise returns, but it just needs some disrupters to upset that strategy.

I heard that podcast too. Funny how the gound-breaking innovations from the Japanese companies (Toyota especially) are always 3-4 years away. If they were that sure that the technology worked, then surely we'd be seeing it in the next 12 months, unless of course they are speculating that they will have a breakthrough in the next few years, like Toyota.

I have a Nissan Aryia (and previously an electric Kona) and a Tesla Model 3. The Aryia is at best average in comparison. Given how long Nissan have had to develop BEVs, I would be amazed if they beat the likes of Tesla, Huyndia/Kia or BYD to market with solid or semi-solid batteries.

Autocar have a very cosy relationship with many of the OEMs, which seems to leave them reluctant to challenge what the OEMs tell them. I like both Prior and Cropley, but like many traditional car journalists, I think they can be rather naive.

[FiF]

Fastlane said:

I heard that podcast too. Funny how the gound-breaking innovations from the Japanese companies (Toyota especially) are always 3-4 years away. If they were that sure that the technology worked, then surely we'd be seeing it in the next 12 months, unless of course they are speculating that they will have a breakthrough in the next few years, like Toyota.

I have a Nissan Aryia (and previously an electric Kona) and a Tesla Model 3. The Aryia is at best average in comparison. Given how long Nissan have had to develop BEVs, I would be amazed if they beat the likes of Tesla, Huyndia/Kia or BYD to market with solid or semi-solid batteries.

Autocar have a very cosy relationship with many of the OEMs, which seems to leave them reluctant to challenge what the OEMs tell them. I like both Prior and Cropley, but like many traditional car journalists, I think they can be rather naive.

Part of the issue on timing is getting developments from research stage, developing a practical manufacturing method out of the lab at scale, then getting the cost of production to the point that it's sufficiently economical to get into a commercial product and having the data to prove durability.

We developed a material with significantly improved properties using nano technology, ultimately the basic research work was awarded a Nobel prize. Took years until any was actually installed in a commercial application for the first time.

[_Hoppers]

Scootersp said:

_Hoppers said:

.....the uptake is going to be small. From speaking to friends about EVs, non of them are aware of........:

1. The minuscule running costs of charging at home plus
2. Savings in not having to get a £400 service every year (for Teslas at least).
3. Refinement of an electric motor as opposed to an N47 diesel engine
4. The performance of a supercar with the efficiency of an electric car
5. Reliability of an electric motor compared to an engine with multiple moving parts, sensors and filters etc
6. You don't actually need a range of 600miles when you only do 200 in a week
8. A 'long' trip may only involve one or two 10-20min charging stops
7. etc etc.

I know the above has been discussed many times here and I'm sure used EV values would be higher if the public had a better understanding of EVs?!

As you drift down from new car buyers (that can indeed enjoy all your benefits you state) you can get contra's

1. Lots can't charge at home or have family competition to do so, cost differential of home to public is borderline criminal and hits the poorest? or certainly will mean they can't enjoy the same cost savings they otherwise might
2. Definitely servicing savings but also out of warranty so rare but terminally costly issues to worry about (we haven't see much of the 7+ year consequences as the sample sizes are fairly small?
3. Can't argue with that refinement will be unaltered, but that's a smaller factor in the cost conscious older car buyer
4. This only applies to the top of the tree EV's and again isn't high on many peoples list
5. This fits with the servicing savings, but also the older/cheaper they get the more the risk is of a significant cost. ICE's can often be nursed through a few hundred at a time as they get old, EV's as they age are likely to be largely hassle free then one owner gets hit by a big expense and it's scrapped, not as good a risk proposition for those on a budget?
6. Range will be an issue in older models, if it's your only car. Most EV owners on here go on about X Y Z is perfect for their use case and then discuss their other ICE car for other uses. Bar the fast charging top end EV's they are compromised practically vs ICE's.
7. when you do need the range for a long trip, eg UK holiday trip, Christmas etc, then a small range car equals (usually) a low recharge speed, combined with holiday traffic and those one or two 10-20 mins can be hours. Not all EV's are the same, unlike ICE's where there is no practical disadvantage having a 2000 Yaris or late LS460 (they can deal the same with all use cases), a first gen Leaf vs a Model whatever Tesla will be worlds apart on convenience on a long journey.

I speak from having friends of a wide range of social strata, more of them in the lower ranges of car purchasing where EV thoughts are years off and anything affordable has huge compromises compare to ICE. It will be interesting to see the transition over time, it feels to me like the lower middle and below classes will hang onto ICE significantly as what they can afford EV wise will come with (perceived at least) unworkable practicalities.

When you think of the variety today of ICE cars available in the £3-£10K range compared to EV's it isn't hard to see the issue for a significant part of the population? The cost savings or other EV advantages just aren't enough yet to offset the downsides.

Hopefully in time the repair and the general motor trade network gives the older car buyer some reassurance of lower risk, charging away from home can be a little more cost comparable, the variety of EV's coming down to their level increases, then you can see people drifting away from ICE.

I spose what I'm saying is it's easier at the top to enjoy the EV plus sides but gets harder as you come down the chain. Anyone with a very nice newish EV, would I think struggle to pick a £12K EV they'd prefer over a £12K ICE car if that could be their only method of transportation?

Yep, I accept all of your points. I was, albeit ignorantly, expressing an opinion from my demographic?! That said, there will be a large number of people in my demographic looking at spending £18-20+ on a second hand car and so I think the points in my original post still stand? Also, as previously stated in this thread more than 50% of people have access to off street parking. My original post was prompted by a recent outing with some friends. The conversation moved on to cars and one chap asked who would have an EV, seconded by another? Range was discussed and I asked how many trips do they do which are more than 300 miles, they couldn't answer. All the usual tropes were brought up which I counteracted with some facts. I'm not sure I convinced them but I hope it made them think a little more about EVs (probably no thought!)?

Edited by _Hoppers on Friday 5th July 16:14

[Richard-D]

otolith said:

greenarrow said:

Just picking up on this point and I agree, its pretty shocking to me that more than sales of petrol cars in 2024 are still more than 3X that of BEVs and shows there's still a long way to go before EVs are widely adopted. PHEV sales as you say showing the best increase. Personally I'm not a PHEV fan. To me they fall down between two stools. I wouldn't mind something like a Hybrid Yaris, but can't see the point in a vehicle you have to plug in to charge which then does only 20-30 miles on electric only power. All the 330e models I see on my motorway journey are relying on good old fashioned petrol power!

Depends what they are being used for. 20-30 miles would cover an awful lot of an awful lot of people's daily usage while removing all of the fear and doubt about longer journeys that people still seem to have with a full electric car.

That's not great either though as with the ethanol content of petrol you don't really want it sitting in your tank for months on end ready for your occasional long journey. As always, it isn't quite that simple.

[greenarrow]

_Hoppers said:

greenarrow said:

but can't see the point in a vehicle you have to plug in to charge which then does only 20-30 miles on electric only power.

It might not work for you but for my daily 25 mile work commute, a trip to visit my Mum at the weekend plus a few other relatively short drives, a 30 mile range would mostly much work for me. Yes, I do occasionaly venture further afield but these short trips make up the majority of the miles I'm putting on my 320D. Last year a 330e was on my shopping list but I've since decided that the complexity of two types of drive train in one vehicle wasn't worth it and a BEV would be a better option.

So to sumarise you basically came to the same conclusion as me

[plfrench]

braddo said:

survivalist said:

True in absolute numbers, but PHEV and HEV combined still outsold BEV by a significant margin. Relevant IMO because many PHEV never get plugged in - for company car users it's just a BIK reduction.

Not sure there are any stats to back that up, is there?

I suspect your 'many' is a few thousand people out of hundreds of thousands, so maybe 5%-10% of PHEV owners? If people have a driveway (or charging at work) and a PHEV, why would people never plug their car in?

This point about not relying on PHEVs being plugged in was tackled head on in the ZEV Mandate consultation response - it’s why hybrids are very specifically excluded from the targets; they can’t be relied upon to be used in the optimal way due to needing humans to use in a specific way to avoid just working like ICE.

[otolith]

Richard-D said:

That's not great either though as with the ethanol content of petrol you don't really want it sitting in your tank for months on end ready for your occasional long journey. As always, it isn't quite that simple.

Never drain the tanks on my occasionally used cars, not had any problems so far. Though they are run on super, to be fair.

[DonkeyApple]

FiF said:

Interesting point raised by Cropley and Prior in this week's Autocar My week in cars podcast. It relates to a comment from one of the Autocar award winners David Moss who is from Nissan about very much advanced batteries with double the energy density and triple the charging speed which "will be available in Nissan cars by 2028",

All very encouraging though as they pointed out it creates an issue at time of purchasing. It's always been the case with imminent model updates but they're often relatively small incremental developments. As things develop in BEV world so quickly the chances of buying something that is maybe 2 years old but completely behind the curve.

It may well involve the usual manufacturer tactic of gradual release of new developments to maximise returns, but it just needs some disrupters to upset that strategy.

I would imagine that the moment the next step forward in battery tech is commercial viable it is in cars/products the next day.

The whole EV era is very the next 20 years doesn't look like it'll favour flippers but not be an issue for those who just buy and hold.

I imagine that someone who buys say a nearly new car every couple of years would be handing themselves their own arse doing that with EVs.

The battery that Nissan were talking about a few months ago was a solid state alternative but the latest wet cells from CATL potentially end the problem that SS was hoping to solve while being a fraction of the cost.

[M4cruiser]

DonkeyApple said:

I've been a proponent for years for banning car vendors from being able to sell finance as it only allows them to manipulate the market against consumers and today, with our advanced consumer lending market places there is absolutely no place or benefit in allowing retailers to dictate debt deals. Leave lenders to compete on lending and car vendors to compete in car prices.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Thursday 4th July 21:51

I agree, but there will always be a way round the rules.
Technically, car vendors don't sell finance. They introduce you to someone else, i.e. a finance company. Ok, so they are closely linked, but the basic problem is the car buyers are lazy.
You can sit in the dealer and sign a couple of forms and get £15,000 at 14% interest.
Or you can make a couple of phone calls and get the same money from your bank at 6%. This then allows you to negotiate a "discount for cash". You can work out the combined overall savings, they are big.

[Wills2]

SDK said:

Some people continue to claim EV’s are dead and sales are dropping
Yet this is the 7th consecutive month petrol & diesel market share is down and BEV up

The numbers make sobering reading.

At the half year point EV % share growth is 0.5% that's glacial, current EV share is at 16.6% vs the target of 22%, we started the year at 16.1% the target was to grow share by 5.9% it's grown by 0.5% which 8.5% of the target which is a woeful performance

[plfrench]

Wills2 said:

SDK said:

Some people continue to claim EV’s are dead and sales are dropping
Yet this is the 7th consecutive month petrol & diesel market share is down and BEV up

The numbers make sobering reading.

At the half year point EV % share growth is 0.5% that's glacial, current EV share is at 16.6% vs the target of 22%, we started the year at 16.1% the target was to grow share by 5.9% it's grown by 0.5% which 8.5% of the target which is a woeful performance

It’s a far more nuanced set of rules though - 22% is just the headline figure. There are all sorts of trading and offsetting options available for both credits and fleet emissions performance. 18-19% for the year is entirely achievable and good enough for the first full year of the Mandate. This will ramp up quite sharply, but it’s a fine balancing act for the manufacturers- they won’t want to give away more margin than they have to, their strategies will have been very carefully costed. A manufacturer could apparently achieve as low as 5.5% BEV sales this year and not need to pay any £15k fines is they exploit all the levers to the maximum - they’d probably regret doing so though due to the difficulty in playing catch up in subsequent years.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/z...

[otolith]

M4cruiser said:

This then allows you to negotiate a "discount for cash".

Why would they discount for cash when they are losing the commission on the finance?

[Scootersp]

_Hoppers said:

Yep, I accept all of your points. I was, albeit ignorantly, expressing an opinion from my demographic?! That said, there will be a large number of people in my demographic looking at spending £18-20+ on a second hand car and so I think the points in my original post still stand? Also, as previously stated in this thread more than 50% of people have access to off street parking. My original post was prompted by a recent outing with some friends. The conversation moved on to cars and one chap asked who would have an EV, seconded by another? Range was discussed and I asked how many trips do they do which are more than 300 miles, they couldn't answer. All the usual tropes were brought up which I counteracted with some facts. I'm not sure I convinced them but I hope it made them think a little more about EVs (probably no thought!)?

Edited by _Hoppers on Friday 5th July 16:14

Yeah I'm not looking to be argumentative, merely that with EV's there is a lot more to consider for the lower budget (more my) crowd and will be for a considerable time.

My whole motoring life has been on a budget really, certainly when compared to someone with a 3-5 year cycle of new cars, but you could be on a budget these last few decades and experience close to what the new buyer did, there certainly were no use cases you couldn't cover, you were only disadvantaged on new tech, some safety, general 'newness' etc, not that you'd suffer much practically for having a cheap car.

For EV's now on a budget you are screwed, no cheapo off/soft roader, no bargain barges, no cheap weekend convertible, no family people carrier, no dog carrying estate, and if/when you can get these via trickle down they will be hugely compromised to the new EV's of the day, far more than ICE cars with a 10 or 20 year gap?

Eg My 2003 V70 D5 vs a new V90 and my 2005 BMW 645 convertible vs a 2018 650, yes I'm missing out, my cars are old/worse/tired in comparison etc but not in practical terms? mpg/range, space, wind in hair, v8 noise/torque, time at the pumps it's all very similar, I don't feel that disadvantaged.

I think the future decades look quite grim for a budget EV buyer? I think many of us will grimly hang on to ICE's for the variety and price, when given the likely EV choices available to us? (regardless of home charging etc)

I hope for the quick battery progress mentioned above, I love how cordless powertools are now so powerful/useful/viable, cycle light batteries that used to fill a water bottle carrier now are a matchbox size or smaller, electric gokarts are great etc I'm not anti electric but purely on a comparison basis at a low budget they really don't work yet.