Secondhand car price crash? (Vol. 2)

Secondhand car price crash? (Vol. 2)

Author
Discussion

OutInTheShed

8,226 posts

29 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
tim jb said:
Aside from part exchanges, where are dealers getting their cars from? Obviously at a price where there's a profit so they're buying them 'cheap'
I assume WBAC, Motorway and so forth, auctions, fleet disposals?
I'm not sure of the exact route cars take when people let them go at the end of 3 years of finance.
Dealers must be getting them for substantially less than the optional final payment!

I've looked awhat WBAC will offer for a few cars I've been interested in, at the cheap end of the market, they don't offer very much.
Some dealers buy the odd car privately if it's a bargain they know they can sell quickly.

Deep Thought

36,171 posts

200 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
tim jb said:
Considering the Copart route now. Buy a structually sound modern yet recoverd / non running problem and get up to scratch, do all the jobs that need doing and get them out the way. Buying a modern second hand vehicle now and you're paying a lot of money for a high miler that inevitably needs a clutch change, engine replacement, drive shafts / suspension arms / pressed wheel bearings replaced etc. Might as well strip the running gear and rebuild with new parts and then you know where you stand. Potential to add value (maybe).
The Copart route isnt usually the bargain route it might initially seem.

Cars invariably make a lot that than you'd expect - to the point where many question whats the point in buying a salvage car at all - and many come with more issues than you're told about / parts have went missing whilst in the salvage yard. Its not uncommon for cars to be moved about using forklift trucks under the body.

Unless you're on a very tight budget for the particular model you're after, i dont think theres a need to buy a "high miler" and even if you do, buy one with a maintenance history which would show when any maintenance jobs have been done. You should also be able to detect - by driving it - if a car is going to need an imminent clutch change, or by clunks and rattles that might suggest driveshaft / bearing wear. Proposing doing loads of unnecessary maintenance on a car so you "know where you stand" would make most economically unviable. Just do any work as you go along when its needed.

You'd also have to be really unlucky to buy a high miler that suddenly needs an engine replacement. A proper inspection of the car before purchase should rule that out or if in doubt, walk away.

Deep Thought

36,171 posts

200 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
tim jb said:
Aside from part exchanges, where are dealers getting their cars from? Obviously at a price where there's a profit so they're buying them 'cheap'
Primarily at trade auctions and buying at trade prices.

Those may appear "cheap", but on top of the raw trade price they'll be auction paying fees, any prep costs to make it retail ready, an amount to cover all their fixed cost overheads, advertising, warranty, VAT and taxes, commission to their salesperson, etc.

Deep Thought

36,171 posts

200 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
I assume WBAC, Motorway and so forth, auctions, fleet disposals?
I'm not sure of the exact route cars take when people let them go at the end of 3 years of finance.
Dealers must be getting them for substantially less than the optional final payment!

I've looked awhat WBAC will offer for a few cars I've been interested in, at the cheap end of the market, they don't offer very much.
Some dealers buy the odd car privately if it's a bargain they know they can sell quickly.
Only a small percentage ever get handed back to the finance house at the end of the term. Most will be traded in, bought outright by the person who had it, or sold on by the person who had it to WBAC, private sale, trade sale etc.

Those small amount that do get returned to the finance company will end up at auction.


Theoldguard

847 posts

61 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
tim jb said:
Aside from part exchanges, where are dealers getting their cars from? Obviously at a price where there's a profit so they're buying them 'cheap'
Auction, it's where end of lease cars end up from both personal and business, motability and fleet.

Often auctions are behind closed doors for the best stuff for group dealers to bid, ex VWFS leases are sold to VW dealers.

Now that leasing deals are back and motability choices better than what they have been in recent years with parts shortages more cars are getting handed back in and new deliveries increasing naturally the supply of used stock is getting better.



Sheepshanks

33,487 posts

122 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
e-honda said:
What's your usage pattern and can you fit a decent home charger?
20k a year in a 200 mile EV can be a bit of a stretch for most people.
It’d be for one of our daughters- she does a 30 mile each way commute 5, quite often 6, days a week. Plus a bit of other running around. She would home charge.

e-honda

9,090 posts

149 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Theoldguard said:
Auction, it's where end of lease cars end up from both personal and business, motability and fleet.

Often auctions are behind closed doors for the best stuff for group dealers to bid, ex VWFS leases are sold to VW dealers.

Now that leasing deals are back and motability choices better than what they have been in recent years with parts shortages more cars are getting handed back in and new deliveries increasing naturally the supply of used stock is getting better.
Do the cars go anywhere? are these on paper / virtual auction where the cars never move from the dealer that took them in unless another dealer buys them? Or do they actually take the cars to a 'secret' auction house?

Auto810graphy

1,448 posts

95 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
e-honda said:
Theoldguard said:
Auction, it's where end of lease cars end up from both personal and business, motability and fleet.

Often auctions are behind closed doors for the best stuff for group dealers to bid, ex VWFS leases are sold to VW dealers.

Now that leasing deals are back and motability choices better than what they have been in recent years with parts shortages more cars are getting handed back in and new deliveries increasing naturally the supply of used stock is getting better.
Do the cars go anywhere? are these on paper / virtual auction where the cars never move from the dealer that took them in unless another dealer buys them? Or do they actually take the cars to a 'secret' auction house?
Motability (the biggest leasing company in the UK) sell the majority of cars for a fixed price via their own website without moving them from the return location, they also have their own auctions and send other stuff to open trade auctions.

Most other trade cars go to storage compounds, often owned by BCA, Cox Automotive, IT-Fleet etc where they get appraised and entered into either online or physical sales before getting moved to the buyer. These are no “secret” locations, just some auctions are for certain brands of not.

The new supplier into the trade is C2B sites like Carwow and Motorway who allow dealers to buy directly from consumers and in theory cutting out auction houses but in reality the fees are still high and the cars fetch the same money, if not more.

ChrisH72

2,273 posts

55 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
I actually feel a lot more positive about used cars and buying than I have for the last couple of years. Must admit to having been very despondent with sky high prices and cars I like being discontinued and pretty much resigned to just keeping my current car until it breaks. It does seem as though depreciation has returned to make used cars a better value proposition like the old days. Sure they're a bit more expensive for various reasons but they're probably better and should last longer. I think people have become obsessed with price and residual values and what may happen in the future. There's no point really because it is what it is.

I've been asking questions over on the EV forum and must say I'm much less terrified about owning and running one. An EV would work for me and there are new ones in the pipeline that I do find interesting and could imagine having at some point. It seems that they will be very affordable on the used market too which is great news for private buyers like me. Still not sure if I'll get one just yet but I'd like to have a drive in one to see what it's all about.

I do think I will change car this year and there are good options out there at the right kind of price.

AlexNJ89

2,612 posts

82 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
I actually feel a lot more positive about used cars and buying than I have for the last couple of years. Must admit to having been very despondent with sky high prices and cars I like being discontinued and pretty much resigned to just keeping my current car until it breaks. It does seem as though depreciation has returned to make used cars a better value proposition like the old days. Sure they're a bit more expensive for various reasons but they're probably better and should last longer. I think people have become obsessed with price and residual values and what may happen in the future. There's no point really because it is what it is.

I've been asking questions over on the EV forum and must say I'm much less terrified about owning and running one. An EV would work for me and there are new ones in the pipeline that I do find interesting and could imagine having at some point. It seems that they will be very affordable on the used market too which is great news for private buyers like me. Still not sure if I'll get one just yet but I'd like to have a drive in one to see what it's all about.

I do think I will change car this year and there are good options out there at the right kind of price.
One major influencing factor imo is the fact that new cars are now incredibly boring. So for example if you go out and buy a 981 Cayman GTS, it's no longer at threat of the newer cars that are better being pushed in to the market which depreciates it.

So I think going forward, the only thing that is going to cause car prices to fall is an economic factor.

cheesejunkie

2,840 posts

20 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
ChrisH72 said:
I actually feel a lot more positive about used cars and buying than I have for the last couple of years. Must admit to having been very despondent with sky high prices and cars I like being discontinued and pretty much resigned to just keeping my current car until it breaks. It does seem as though depreciation has returned to make used cars a better value proposition like the old days. Sure they're a bit more expensive for various reasons but they're probably better and should last longer. I think people have become obsessed with price and residual values and what may happen in the future. There's no point really because it is what it is.

I've been asking questions over on the EV forum and must say I'm much less terrified about owning and running one. An EV would work for me and there are new ones in the pipeline that I do find interesting and could imagine having at some point. It seems that they will be very affordable on the used market too which is great news for private buyers like me. Still not sure if I'll get one just yet but I'd like to have a drive in one to see what it's all about.

I do think I will change car this year and there are good options out there at the right kind of price.
It’s not an EV thread so I’ll stick within the price stability part. I took very much the same view buying an EV recently. Prices have become acceptable second hand and I don’t want to go down the salary sacrifice route. Yes they might drop a bit more or quite a bit more but I wasn’t buying a new or nearly new model so my worst case exposure is fine by me. I might eventually buy a fancier one but not as a first toe in the water. No regrets so far.

Parents are looking to buy a car again. They’ve always bought new in more recent years, won’t this time due to over inflated retail prices, They ask me for advice. I know little but they realise I read up more than they do. They’ll buy some sort of used PHEV SUV so I’ve been watching prices over time. They’ve dropped for a while but now seem more stable. They’ll run it forever so affordability is more relevant than retained value. I would not tell them to hold off buying if they saw a car they wanted.

av185

18,786 posts

130 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Theoldguard said:
Auction, it's where end of lease cars end up from both personal and business, motability and fleet.

Often auctions are behind closed doors for the best stuff for group dealers to bid, ex VWFS leases are sold to VW dealers.

Now that leasing deals are back and motability choices better than what they have been in recent years with parts shortages more cars are getting handed back in and new deliveries increasing naturally the supply of used stock is getting better.
Supply of higher grade quality Motabilty cars at auction is still restricted and many cars are overage exceeding their standard 3 year term and require extensive and costly refurb.

Grade 1 and 2 auction stock is still very limited as they are invariably sold pre auction leaving the dog mainly grades 4 and 5 often inferior spec poor colour etc too.

Anything higher grade with FMDSH gets way over book price as these are the very 1 owner cars buyers will pay the best money for.

The well established idea that auction cars are cheap ££ is a myth for many. Same as property auctions. The internet largely changed things.

bennno

12,048 posts

272 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
av185 said:
Supply of higher grade quality Motabilty cars at auction is still restricted and many cars are overage exceeding their standard 3 year term and require extensive and costly refurb.

Grade 1 and 2 auction stock is still very limited as they are invariably sold pre auction leaving the dog mainly grades 4 and 5 often inferior spec poor colour etc too.

Anything higher grade with FMDSH gets way over book price as these are the very 1 owner cars buyers will pay the best money for.

The well established idea that auction cars are cheap ££ is a myth for many. Same as property auctions. The internet largely changed things.
100%, plus mix in a lot of cars with complex faults from dealers who recognise the fix is uneconomic, plus anything that’s been dropped off to wbac with a fault.

Easier to buy privately now and get a reasonable car / deal - if you can get anything from wbac to wbac +10% then it’d be cheaper than at auction.



tim jb

217 posts

6 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
bennno said:
Easier to buy privately now and get a reasonable car / deal - if you can get anything from wbac to wbac +10% then it’d be cheaper than at auction.
Once you filter out traders there's not a lot of choice I find, maybe i'm not searching correctly

Sheepshanks

33,487 posts

122 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
av185 said:
Supply of higher grade quality Motabilty cars at auction is still restricted and many cars are overage exceeding their standard 3 year term and require extensive and costly refurb.
I stumbled across a discussion the other day where someone said their Motability car was coming up to 6yrs old!

I don't know what form it takes, but apparently Motability is pushing its customers towards EVs - once that gets going it's going to produce a lot of used EVs into a market that at the moment doesn't seem very receptive to them.

e-honda

9,090 posts

149 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
If you are on motability presumably you can get a disabled bay put outside your house if you are in a built up area, so they can probably also start installing chargers at those spaces, I can see that happening and people getting very annoyed about it and fighting over them.

ChocolateFrog

26,781 posts

176 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
tim jb said:
Considering the Copart route now. Buy a structually sound modern yet recoverd / non running problem and get up to scratch, do all the jobs that need doing and get them out the way. Buying a modern second hand vehicle now and you're paying a lot of money for a high miler that inevitably needs a clutch change, engine replacement, drive shafts / suspension arms / pressed wheel bearings replaced etc. Might as well strip the running gear and rebuild with new parts and then you know where you stand. Potential to add value (maybe).
The Copart route isnt usually the bargain route it might initially seem.

Cars invariably make a lot that than you'd expect - to the point where many question whats the point in buying a salvage car at all - and many come with more issues than you're told about / parts have went missing whilst in the salvage yard. Its not uncommon for cars to be moved about using forklift trucks under the body.

Unless you're on a very tight budget for the particular model you're after, i dont think theres a need to buy a "high miler" and even if you do, buy one with a maintenance history which would show when any maintenance jobs have been done. You should also be able to detect - by driving it - if a car is going to need an imminent clutch change, or by clunks and rattles that might suggest driveshaft / bearing wear. Proposing doing loads of unnecessary maintenance on a car so you "know where you stand" would make most economically unviable. Just do any work as you go along when its needed.

You'd also have to be really unlucky to buy a high miler that suddenly needs an engine replacement. A proper inspection of the car before purchase should rule that out or if in doubt, walk away.
My mate bought a van from Copart specifically because it had a piece of equipment left in the back that when he did some digging was worth about £5k.

Of course when it arrived on his drive the item had gone.

He just got Copart to come and collect it because it wasn't as described.

ChocolateFrog

26,781 posts

176 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
The average motability car must be a bag of ste by the time it's handed back.

I wouldn't touch one if it was half the price of one of known provenance.

Fast Bug

11,896 posts

164 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
ChocolateFrog said:
The average motability car must be a bag of ste by the time it's handed back.

I wouldn't touch one if it was half the price of one of known provenance.
Most of them are no worse than a standard part exchange, the others? Yeah they're best avoided. I've seen some shockers

RayDonovan

4,616 posts

218 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Worst PX I ever took was a Vet's car. Absolute POS.
Looked like it needed a decent clean but was shagged underneath from Farm tracks etc